Puzzle time - who’s bullet?
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wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 15:38 last edited by
Bugger, sorry.
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Bugger, sorry.
wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 15:40 last edited by@Doctor-Phibes said in Puzzle time - who’s bullet?:
Bugger, sorry.
Don't be sorry. You are t3h stats jock!
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@jon-nyc #1 and #2 cannot happen. In the riddle, one bullet hits you said. I think that leaves only 3 and 4
wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 15:49 last edited by@taiwan_girl said in Puzzle time - who’s bullet?:
@jon-nyc #1 and #2 cannot happen. In the riddle, one bullet hits you said. I think that leaves only 3 and 4
Well it’s an intermediate step which allows you to get to the conditional probability that the target is hit by only one bullet.
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wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 15:51 last edited by
To make the problem more realistic instead of shooting a target the puzzle should have been successfully playing a Rachmaninoff etude.
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To make the problem more realistic instead of shooting a target the puzzle should have been successfully playing a Rachmaninoff etude.
wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 15:51 last edited by -
wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 15:54 last edited by
Neither one. Klaus can't shoot and you're drunk.
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wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 16:01 last edited by
What's the probability of somebody's family member shooting either Klaus or Jon as they attempt to play a Rachmaninoff etude?
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wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 18:40 last edited by
Exact Bayesian inference for the win.
normalize $ do k <- coin 0.25 j <- coin 0.75 if ((k && not j) || (j && not k)) then (if k then return "Klaus" else return "Jon") else failResult:
Dist [(0.9,"Jon"),(0.1,"Klaus")] -
wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 18:46 last edited by
Fucking IT people.
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Fucking IT people.
wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 18:49 last edited by -
wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 19:12 last edited by Klaus 10 Jun 2020, 20:06
I have a similar puzzle for Jon.
Jon sends us a recording of a Rachmaninoff etude and tells us that it is a recording from him.
Jon is a trustworthy forum member, so before listening we are 99% confident that Jon tells the truth and didn't actually send us a recording by Klaus (which would be flawless).
However, we also know that the probability that Jon hits a correct note is only 40%.
We start listening to the 10 first notes. They are all correct.
What's the likelihood that it is indeed Jon's recording?
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wrote on 6 Oct 2020, 20:39 last edited by
100.0%
