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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. Puzzle time - who’s bullet?

Puzzle time - who’s bullet?

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  • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

    @jon-nyc #1 and #2 cannot happen. In the riddle, one bullet hits you said. I think that leaves only 3 and 4

    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #13

    @taiwan_girl said in Puzzle time - who’s bullet?:

    @jon-nyc #1 and #2 cannot happen. In the riddle, one bullet hits you said. I think that leaves only 3 and 4

    Well it’s an intermediate step which allows you to get to the conditional probability that the target is hit by only one bullet.

    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
    -Cormac McCarthy

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    • jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nycJ Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #14

      To make the problem more realistic instead of shooting a target the puzzle should have been successfully playing a Rachmaninoff etude.

      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
      -Cormac McCarthy

      taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

        To make the problem more realistic instead of shooting a target the puzzle should have been successfully playing a Rachmaninoff etude.

        taiwan_girlT Offline
        taiwan_girlT Offline
        taiwan_girl
        wrote on last edited by
        #15

        @jon-nyc 😂

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        • MikM Offline
          MikM Offline
          Mik
          wrote on last edited by
          #16

          Neither one. Klaus can't shoot and you're drunk.

          “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

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          • Doctor PhibesD Offline
            Doctor PhibesD Offline
            Doctor Phibes
            wrote on last edited by
            #17

            What's the probability of somebody's family member shooting either Klaus or Jon as they attempt to play a Rachmaninoff etude?

            I was only joking

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            • KlausK Offline
              KlausK Offline
              Klaus
              wrote on last edited by
              #18

              Exact Bayesian inference for the win.

              normalize $ do
                  k <- coin 0.25
                  j <- coin 0.75
                  if ((k && not j) || (j && not k)) then (if k then return "Klaus" else return "Jon") else fail
              

              Result:

              Dist [(0.9,"Jon"),(0.1,"Klaus")]
              
              1 Reply Last reply
              • Doctor PhibesD Offline
                Doctor PhibesD Offline
                Doctor Phibes
                wrote on last edited by
                #19

                Fucking IT people.

                I was only joking

                HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

                  Fucking IT people.

                  HoraceH Offline
                  HoraceH Offline
                  Horace
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #20

                  @Doctor-Phibes said in Puzzle time - who’s bullet?:

                  Fucking IT people.

                  Not in this lifetime. Nerds.

                  Education is extremely important.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • KlausK Offline
                    KlausK Offline
                    Klaus
                    wrote on last edited by Klaus
                    #21

                    I have a similar puzzle for Jon.

                    Jon sends us a recording of a Rachmaninoff etude and tells us that it is a recording from him.

                    Jon is a trustworthy forum member, so before listening we are 99% confident that Jon tells the truth and didn't actually send us a recording by Klaus (which would be flawless).

                    However, we also know that the probability that Jon hits a correct note is only 40%.

                    We start listening to the 10 first notes. They are all correct.

                    What's the likelihood that it is indeed Jon's recording?

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                    • jon-nycJ Offline
                      jon-nycJ Offline
                      jon-nyc
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #22

                      100.0%

                      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                      -Cormac McCarthy

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