The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

[jon-nyc]

Ultimatum on opening the strait.

Power plants targeted (‘obliterated’) if not.

[Mik]

I suspect the mullahs fart in his general direction.

[jon-nyc]

Yeah, more likely they'll start attacking more soft targets in the gulf states.

[jon-nyc]

This makes it harder for Trump to later decide that he's going to declare victory and let the rest of the world worry about the strait. That will be a very obvious L after this.

[AndyD]

Well he doesn't mince words.

Perhaps Iran attempting to strike Diego Garcia base with long range missiles touched a nerve.

[bachophile]

they threatened the desalinization plants in the gulf to deny them water.

its getting ugly

[jon-nyc]

[jon-nyc]

A lot of prominent Iranian dissidents abroad are asking Trump not to attack the power plants, including Reza Palavi and that woman in Brooklyn they keep trying to kill.

In the background I’m sure the GCC are asking him to hold off too.

I think there’s a good chance he calls it off and says it’s in deference (not the word he’d use) to the dissidents.

[AndyD]

Who knows, he may yet turn a lengthy strip of the Persian Gulf waterfront to glass.

[jon-nyc]

I think it’s more likely to tip him to occupying Kharg island.

[Mik]

No nukes will be used. I think Jon's right. Opening up Hormuz is paramount.

[Renauda]

No, nukes will not be deployed. There are plenty of conventional weapons that can complete the mission.

The danger is whether the Iranians, in suicidal desperation, deploy their chemical stockpile.

Then the gloves come will off.

[Mik]

I read they are using the supposedly obsolete A10s to hunt the fast boats.

I’m a bit surprised our military did not have measures in place to keep the Strait open.

[jon-nyc]

I've thought about that too. A couple of ideas:

• Maybe they game out actual physical closure due to mines, fast boats with guns, etc, which largely hasn't happened. This closure seems to be caused by insurance markets refusing to paper the crossings.

• Maybe the countermeasures require ground forces that Trump just hasn't approved yet.

[jon-nyc]

jon-nyc said:

I think there’s a good chance he calls it off and says it’s in deference (not the word he’d use) to the dissidents.

Or not.

[kluurs]

Word is that Putin told Trump he's really, really impressed with what we've done in Iran. Put that in the "win" column.

[Renauda]

@kluurs said:

Word is that Putin told Trump he's really, really impressed with what we've done in Iran.

That has got to be worth 30 pieces of silver to Trump.

[Mik]

That’s when you know you have royally fucked up.

“Never stop your enemy when he’s making a mistake “

[Renauda]

…. It’s bad manners”.

~ Rod Steiger as Napoleon in the film Waterloo snickers as he watches Wellington position his army in the field the morning of the battle.

Napoleon probably said no such thing at the time.

[jon-nyc]

Paywalled piece in the Economist summarizing Trump’s 4 options, but the tweet summarizes them nicely.