The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

[jon-nyc]

I think it’s more likely to tip him to occupying Kharg island.

[Mik]

No nukes will be used. I think Jon's right. Opening up Hormuz is paramount.

[Renauda]

No, nukes will not be deployed. There are plenty of conventional weapons that can complete the mission.

The danger is whether the Iranians, in suicidal desperation, deploy their chemical stockpile.

Then the gloves come will off.

[Mik]

I read they are using the supposedly obsolete A10s to hunt the fast boats.

I’m a bit surprised our military did not have measures in place to keep the Strait open.

[jon-nyc]

I've thought about that too. A couple of ideas:

• Maybe they game out actual physical closure due to mines, fast boats with guns, etc, which largely hasn't happened. This closure seems to be caused by insurance markets refusing to paper the crossings.

• Maybe the countermeasures require ground forces that Trump just hasn't approved yet.

[jon-nyc]

jon-nyc said:

I think there’s a good chance he calls it off and says it’s in deference (not the word he’d use) to the dissidents.

Or not.

[kluurs]

Word is that Putin told Trump he's really, really impressed with what we've done in Iran. Put that in the "win" column.

[Renauda]

@kluurs said:

Word is that Putin told Trump he's really, really impressed with what we've done in Iran.

That has got to be worth 30 pieces of silver to Trump.

[Mik]

That’s when you know you have royally fucked up.

“Never stop your enemy when he’s making a mistake “

[Renauda]

…. It’s bad manners”.

~ Rod Steiger as Napoleon in the film Waterloo snickers as he watches Wellington position his army in the field the morning of the battle.

Napoleon probably said no such thing at the time.