The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread

[Mik]

I still haven't heard much about the state of affairs in country. Seems like if there were uprisings, we'd be hearing about them long and loud.

[Renauda]

I don’t think we will see Iranians take to the streets anytime soon. Between the bombs and the state organs of repression, they remain sufficiently cowed into passivity. That however could change very quickly and violently if it becomes difficult to find food.

Regardless, the longer the war goes on the more difficult it will be down the road for the West in general, the Israelis in particular and the US specifically, to win many Persian hearts and minds. Based on what I have been reading and hear, that between the US and Israelis, it is only the latter that fully grasps the importance of creating the necessary conditions as soon as possible to effect regime change from below. I don’t sense much savy in that regard coming out of the WH.

[jon-nyc]

Saw these together.

[Mik]

Guy's got a bad rug.

[jon-nyc]

[bachophile]

Former ambassador

[jon-nyc]

So is this Iran accepting the ultimatum, but phrasing it as their own ultimatum to sound better?

[jon-nyc]

I don’t know this guy, but he’s a macroeconomist who is followed by some respectable people and JD Vance.

[Mik]

Jesus.

[jon-nyc]

Trying to figure out how much hyperbole there is in his concern.

On the one hand, Saudi and even Qatar are not dominant players in gas. On the other hand (I just learned from an Odd Lots podcast on the subject) NG is far more expensive to transport and the logistics are very sticky due to pipelines and long term contracts. It’s not as much as a ‘one global market’ as oil is.

[jon-nyc]

[89th]

My wife just said one of our Alexa clocks is off by 2 minutes. If that doesn’t mean the world is out of sync I don’t know what to say.

[jon-nyc]

So Yanbu is THE major Saudi export hub for oil that doesn’t rely on the strait. So yeah.

[89th]

So basically, there will be even more stagflation than was expected, despite Trump's new Fed Chairbuddy, and gas prices going up another $2 per gallon soon. I suppose gold will go even higher?

[jon-nyc]

Seems to me to be too early to say but that is certainly the risk.

[jon-nyc]

[taiwan_girl]

President Trump yesterday:

They weren't supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East. Those missiles were sent to go after them. They hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait,

Nobody expected that. We were shocked. You know, they fought back.

He also said something like, "Iran did not have to fight back. They could have yielded."

#faceslap

He must have very incompetent advisors, or he does not listen to them. Probably the last, as I dont think that anybody would have said that Iran would not fight back.

Also, agree with @bachophile that the US had to know that Israel was going to do the bombing they did. 100% Looks like he is starting to throw Isreal "under the bus:

[jon-nyc]

I’m reminded of when he said in his first term, “Nobody knew how hard health care reform would be”.