The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
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Yeah as I said before my fear (and, frankly, expectation) is that he’ll give up when the political price of continuing the war gets too high and just paint a bullseye around the current state of things, whatever they happen to be. This could end up being part of it.
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I don’t think we will see Iranians take to the streets anytime soon. Between the bombs and the state organs of repression, they remain sufficiently cowed into passivity. That however could change very quickly and violently if it becomes difficult to find food.
Regardless, the longer the war goes on the more difficult it will be down the road for the West in general, the Israelis in particular and the US specifically, to win many Persian hearts and minds. Based on what I have been reading and hear, that between the US and Israelis, it is only the latter that fully grasps the importance of creating the necessary conditions as soon as possible to effect regime change from below. I don’t sense much savy in that regard coming out of the WH.
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Trying to figure out how much hyperbole there is in his concern.
On the one hand, Saudi and even Qatar are not dominant players in gas. On the other hand (I just learned from an Odd Lots podcast on the subject) NG is far more expensive to transport and the logistics are very sticky due to pipelines and long term contracts. It’s not as much as a ‘one global market’ as oil is.
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