The Iran Nuclear Program thread
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Once again I've been offline for a few hours, just put the kids to bed, and now I get my news updates from TNCR! Interesting to scan this thread over the last few hours.
My first thought as @jon-nyc was posting the market odds was... I could see Trump going in for the "gimme putt" after Israel does most of the work, so that we can claim victory.
Nonetheless, Jon you are right there are things we do well and things we don't. Blow shit up is one thing we do really well. And will it cause WW3? I doubt it. I'm not an expert in the slightest, but I can't imagine the big boys like China or Russia are willing to jump into the poker hand for Iran. The folks that count on Iran seem to be the weaker Islamic countries that don't have many chips to play poker with in the first place. So WW3? Doubtful. Iran losing and regime change? Probably... although could be decades of chaos within as a result. Maybe that's a good thing, better than a well-armed and/or nuclear Iran that threatens Israel's existence and by proxy, the western free world.
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Am more drawn to analyses of events and crises such as this and Ukraine.
A an old friend of mine who lives in Ottawa sent me the following. Pretty compelling reading about Israel’s capabilities and Iran’s lack thereof. A few parallels with what Ukraine has been achieving lately against Russia. Both wars will be studied at military academies for some time to come.
Elbows up!
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Am more drawn to analyses of events and crises such as this and Ukraine.
A an old friend of mine who lives in Ottawa sent me the following. Pretty compelling reading about Israel’s capabilities and Iran’s lack thereof. A few parallels with what Ukraine has been achieving lately against Russia. Both wars will be studied at military academies for some time to come.
@Renauda said in The Iran Nuclear Program thread:
Am more drawn to analyses of events and crises such as this and Ukraine.
A an old friend of mine who lives in Ottawa sent me the following. Pretty compelling reading about Israel’s capabilities and Iran’s lack thereof. A few parallels with what Ukraine has been achieving lately against Russia. Both wars will be studied at military academies for some time to come.
Great piece. Thanks.
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The best case I’ve heard against regime change. The title is more polemic than the piece.
https://unherd.com/2025/06/the-regime-change-maniacs-are-back/?us
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Yeah but we’ve seen in the region with the green revolutions that there’s a high risk of Islamist takeover arising from chaos.
@jon-nyc said in The Iran Nuclear Program thread:
Yeah but we’ve seen in the region with the green revolutions that there’s a high risk of Islamist takeover arising from chaos.
Which is exactly what happened in Iran in 1979. The revolution began as an urban middle class revolt against autocracy
and was quickly usurped by fanatic anti Western clerics who support base resided in primarily rural areas and urban poor communities.
