Trumpenomics

[Horace]

[jon-nyc]

Some more precision. Doesn’t look like it’s higher overall but consumer goods are.

[LuFins Dad]

Yes, but China’s a hit more people are willing to take…

[LuFins Dad]

I think the boat fees are actually as big as the tariffs…

[AndyD]

How are the farmers
of America taking this?
Are they more likely to plant crops or sell their machines?

E.g. China has been stockpiling soybeans, and Brazil is an alternative supplier. Chinese import tax on US soybeans is now 104% ?

[jon-nyc]

We have 9T of debt that matures in 2025, all of which we need to reissue and of course Trump will issue several trillion more.

[Axtremus]

Maybe this time Trump will say "China will pay for it."

[jon-nyc]

[LuFins Dad]

Good lord. The comments…

[Horace]

I'm unsurprised that economic destruction is no big deal to people with nothing economic to lose.

[jon-nyc]

If this was 4D chess to get interest rates down for debt refinancing, I think the fat man got mated in 6 moves.

[jon-nyc]

Dollar index against a currency basket.

[jon-nyc]

From UBS:

Treasury Secretary Bessent said that they saw nothing unusual in yesterday’s market moves.

The 30yr treasury experienced the biggest increase since 1982, equities are falling, the dollar is falling, and gold hit an all time high.

Economists might consider this pattern not entirely usual.

[89th]

I think of Larry every time I hear about the gold price.

[Axtremus]

Op-ed praising Trump's genius tariff moves, comparing Trump to Tuft, McKinley, Ford, Reagan:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2025/04/10/trump-tariffs-pause-stock-market-manipulation/83019881007/

[jon-nyc]

[89th]

An odd situation. The Chinese economy is under stress (real estate, demographics, etc), and they are highly reliant on exports. Then again, there are other customers to export to than the USA. On our side, the USA is highly reliant on Chinese exports both for end products but also supply chain for so many companies. Really it seems to be more about two power egos fighting it out than realistic long-term international trade objectives. Not sure how it plays out but it will be interesting to see in a year or so how it compares to December 2024 numbers.

[jon-nyc]

This is definitely a bad time for China to have a trade war. The question is how much pain is he willing to subject his peasantry to in order to save face for China and himself.

[jon-nyc]

@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

This is starting to feel a lot like the 2008 panic and the 2020 COVID panic. I kinda think there is more than a bit of overreaction to this.

What I don’t get is how this is consistent with your comment from 2 weeks ago or so about OMB and CBO underestimating the negative effects of tax increases. This is still the largest tax increase of your lifetime or mine.

[Jolly]

If we do not consider Hong Kong a separate entity from China, the U.S. accounts for between 15-20% of Chinese exports.