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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics

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  • H Horace
    7 Apr 2025, 23:21

    I think the 10% universal tariff sticks until jobs numbers or inflation numbers push him off of it. The negotiations are to reduce >10% to 10%. That's my prediction anyway.

    X Offline
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    xenon
    wrote on 7 Apr 2025, 23:50 last edited by xenon 18 days from now
    #538

    @Horace said in Trumpenomics:

    I think the 10% universal tariff sticks until jobs numbers or inflation numbers push him off of it. The negotiations are to reduce >10% to 10%. That's my prediction anyway.

    Optimistic take. In the sense that anyone will be forced to admit that lower growth is attributable to tariffs.

    Tariffs are also a huge compliance burden and corruption surface. I haven't seen any clarity on how these things are going to be levied. Will it be on Bill-of-materials? (e.g., what the thing being imported is worth) - which is easier. Or is it based on value-add (what did the last country add vs. all the countries before it?) - which is more accurate.

    It becomes important - e.g., China contributes about 25% of the value in an iphone, but the trade deficit takes into account the full BOM (chips sourced from Japan, Taiwan, etc.).

    You don't have to do any of this work before you introduce tariffs - and then you have to do it by every product in the economy. And then we rail against regulations.

    H D 2 Replies Last reply 8 Apr 2025, 00:44
    • X xenon
      7 Apr 2025, 23:50

      @Horace said in Trumpenomics:

      I think the 10% universal tariff sticks until jobs numbers or inflation numbers push him off of it. The negotiations are to reduce >10% to 10%. That's my prediction anyway.

      Optimistic take. In the sense that anyone will be forced to admit that lower growth is attributable to tariffs.

      Tariffs are also a huge compliance burden and corruption surface. I haven't seen any clarity on how these things are going to be levied. Will it be on Bill-of-materials? (e.g., what the thing being imported is worth) - which is easier. Or is it based on value-add (what did the last country add vs. all the countries before it?) - which is more accurate.

      It becomes important - e.g., China contributes about 25% of the value in an iphone, but the trade deficit takes into account the full BOM (chips sourced from Japan, Taiwan, etc.).

      You don't have to do any of this work before you introduce tariffs - and then you have to do it by every product in the economy. And then we rail against regulations.

      H Offline
      H Offline
      Horace
      wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 00:44 last edited by Horace 4 Aug 2025, 00:45
      #539

      @xenon said in Trumpenomics:

      Optimistic take. In the sense that anyone will be forced to admit that lower growth is attributable to tariffs.

      I don't know anybody will ever admit that. They can always find a reason to claim victory and reduce them, after they've made America great again.

      Tariffs are also a huge compliance burden and corruption surface. I haven't seen any clarity on how these things are going to be levied. Will it be on Bill-of-materials? (e.g., what the thing being imported is worth) - which is easier. Or is it based on value-add (what did the last country add vs. all the countries before it?) - which is more accurate.

      It becomes important - e.g., China contributes about 25% of the value in an iphone, but the trade deficit takes into account the full BOM (chips sourced from Japan, Taiwan, etc.).

      You don't have to do any of this work before you introduce tariffs - and then you have to do it by every product in the economy. And then we rail against regulations.

      Interesting, thanks for those details.

      Education is extremely important.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • X xenon
        7 Apr 2025, 23:50

        @Horace said in Trumpenomics:

        I think the 10% universal tariff sticks until jobs numbers or inflation numbers push him off of it. The negotiations are to reduce >10% to 10%. That's my prediction anyway.

        Optimistic take. In the sense that anyone will be forced to admit that lower growth is attributable to tariffs.

        Tariffs are also a huge compliance burden and corruption surface. I haven't seen any clarity on how these things are going to be levied. Will it be on Bill-of-materials? (e.g., what the thing being imported is worth) - which is easier. Or is it based on value-add (what did the last country add vs. all the countries before it?) - which is more accurate.

        It becomes important - e.g., China contributes about 25% of the value in an iphone, but the trade deficit takes into account the full BOM (chips sourced from Japan, Taiwan, etc.).

        You don't have to do any of this work before you introduce tariffs - and then you have to do it by every product in the economy. And then we rail against regulations.

        D Offline
        D Offline
        Doctor Phibes
        wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 01:39 last edited by
        #540

        @xenon said in Trumpenomics:

        Tariffs are also a huge compliance burden and corruption surface. I haven't seen any clarity on how these things are going to be levied. Will it be on Bill-of-materials? (e.g., what the thing being imported is worth) - which is easier. Or is it based on value-add (what did the last country add vs. all the countries before it?) - which is more accurate.

        Isn't it fortunate that we've got Mr. Attention to Detail running the show.

        I was only joking

        1 Reply Last reply
        • A Offline
          A Offline
          Axtremus
          wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 01:48 last edited by
          #541

          Op-ed addressing the question "why Wall Street didn't see it coming":

          https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/opinion/trump-stock-market-wall-street.html?unlocked_article_code=1.-E4._Kns.XqOzmB6G3a4W

          Why Did So Many People Delude Themselves About Trump?

          1 Reply Last reply
          • H Offline
            H Offline
            Horace
            wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 02:27 last edited by
            #542

            Some wishful thinking, and some belief that it was just too crazy for even Trump to do.

            Education is extremely important.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • H Offline
              H Offline
              Horace
              wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 02:44 last edited by
              #543

              Art Laffer, former Reagan economist, loves Trump, and thinks his first term was the best economically in presidential history. He believes term two will be even better. Because he believes these tariffs are 100% negotiating tactic. Put him in the camp of "it's too crazy for Trump to do this".

              That part is at 8:23.

              Link to video

              Education is extremely important.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • J jon-nyc
                7 Apr 2025, 22:52

                @LuFins-Dad

                Bessent seems to be pushing him toward negotiations, Miller and Navarro for permanence.

                Today the White House retweeted and then deleted a tweet from Navarro saying they were here to stay.

                Seems like a battle is going on.

                https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/07/trump-bessent-trade-deals-tariff-endgame-messaging-00277395

                L Offline
                L Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 15:11 last edited by
                #544

                @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                @LuFins-Dad

                Bessent seems to be pushing him toward negotiations, Miller and Navarro for permanence.

                Today the White House retweeted and then deleted a tweet from Navarro saying they were here to stay.

                Seems like a battle is going on.

                https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/07/trump-bessent-trade-deals-tariff-endgame-messaging-00277395

                Elon and Navarro are going at it.

                The Brad

                1 Reply Last reply
                • L Offline
                  L Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 15:12 last edited by
                  #545

                  Elon has been very quiet about the tariffs until the last few days.

                  The Brad

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • J Offline
                    J Offline
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 15:17 last edited by
                    #546

                    Yeah. Very quiet.

                    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                    -Cormac McCarthy

                    L 1 Reply Last reply 8 Apr 2025, 15:55
                    • J jon-nyc
                      8 Apr 2025, 15:17

                      Yeah. Very quiet.

                      L Offline
                      L Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 15:55 last edited by
                      #547

                      @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                      Yeah. Very quiet.

                      But not so much the last two days. What happens as the split widens over tariffs?

                      The Brad

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • R Offline
                        R Offline
                        Renauda
                        wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 16:16 last edited by Renauda 4 Sept 2025, 02:28
                        #548

                        Musk has now called out Navarro as being “dumber than a sack of bricks”:

                        https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrgx4ky1xxo

                        Sounds like the malice in wonderland theatrical hit of the first term may be on for an encore.

                        Elbows up!

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • H Offline
                          H Offline
                          Horace
                          wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 16:32 last edited by
                          #549

                          Trump just posted about all of the "negotiations" he's doing with other countries. That is an easy off-ramp from the tariffs, if he chooses to take it.

                          Education is extremely important.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • J Offline
                            J Offline
                            Jolly
                            wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 16:41 last edited by Jolly 4 Aug 2025, 16:41
                            #550

                            Don't buy the bullshit.

                            Example: On supposedly Black Monday, CNN was running the stock tickers all day and telling us all how bad Trump had screwed up.

                            Today, the market is up a bit and a stock ticker is no longer scrolling across the bottom of the screen. The media is going to do everything it can to generate clicks through Trump doomporn.

                            I haven't been adding to my investments in awhile. I think today I start dollar averaging the Roth and will continue to do so for the next 18 months.

                            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                            H 1 Reply Last reply 8 Apr 2025, 16:52
                            • L Offline
                              L Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 16:43 last edited by
                              #551

                              Okay, so moving beyond the outright tariff policies, there has been a lot of talk about non-tariff trade barriers including currency manipulation. Is that accurate? And what are the other trade barriers they are alluding to?

                              And as a side note, Netanyahu is now saying he planes on eliminating the trade deficit between Israel and the US. Please explain to me how a nation of 10M can possibly equal the economic consumption of a nation of 350M? Especially when much of that trade is based on precious jewels, which the US has little industry in mining…

                              The Brad

                              H J 2 Replies Last reply 8 Apr 2025, 16:50
                              • L LuFins Dad
                                8 Apr 2025, 16:43

                                Okay, so moving beyond the outright tariff policies, there has been a lot of talk about non-tariff trade barriers including currency manipulation. Is that accurate? And what are the other trade barriers they are alluding to?

                                And as a side note, Netanyahu is now saying he planes on eliminating the trade deficit between Israel and the US. Please explain to me how a nation of 10M can possibly equal the economic consumption of a nation of 350M? Especially when much of that trade is based on precious jewels, which the US has little industry in mining…

                                H Offline
                                H Offline
                                Horace
                                wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 16:50 last edited by
                                #552

                                @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                                Okay, so moving beyond the outright tariff policies, there has been a lot of talk about non-tariff trade barriers including currency manipulation. Is that accurate? And what are the other trade barriers they are alluding to?

                                I think they've pivoted to this because they can hand-wave "non-tariff barriers", but not tariffs, which are publicly known and unambiguous. The example of a non-tariff barrier I've heard them use is a VAT, or sales tax, in Europe, and I've heard that calling that a barrier is nonsense, because it applies to Europe's own domestic products too.

                                And as a side note, Netanyahu is now saying he planes on eliminating the trade deficit between Israel and the US. Please explain to me how a nation of 10M can possibly equal the economic consumption of a nation of 350M? Especially when much of that trade is based on precious jewels, which the US has little industry in mining…

                                I'm hoping "trade deficits" are computed per-capita. They still wouldn't be a bad thing per se, but at least they would be a reasonable thing to talk about.

                                Education is extremely important.

                                8 1 Reply Last reply 8 Apr 2025, 17:06
                                • J Jolly
                                  8 Apr 2025, 16:41

                                  Don't buy the bullshit.

                                  Example: On supposedly Black Monday, CNN was running the stock tickers all day and telling us all how bad Trump had screwed up.

                                  Today, the market is up a bit and a stock ticker is no longer scrolling across the bottom of the screen. The media is going to do everything it can to generate clicks through Trump doomporn.

                                  I haven't been adding to my investments in awhile. I think today I start dollar averaging the Roth and will continue to do so for the next 18 months.

                                  H Offline
                                  H Offline
                                  Horace
                                  wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 16:52 last edited by
                                  #553

                                  @Jolly said in Trumpenomics:

                                  Don't buy the bullshit.

                                  I don't think the damage done to the world economy by universal tariffs, is bullshit.

                                  There is a case to be made that a more protectionist America is a more economically resilient America, so there is that, but the economic efficiency of tariff-free trading will be missed hugely, and everybody will feel it, if it goes.

                                  Education is extremely important.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • 8 Offline
                                    8 Offline
                                    89th
                                    wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 17:01 last edited by 89th 4 Aug 2025, 17:01
                                    #554

                                    It was only the worst 3-day run for the S&P since the 1987 crash, and as CNN displayed the ticker, Fox removed their stock ticker for the first time to hide the news from granny in the nursing home.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • H Horace
                                      8 Apr 2025, 16:50

                                      @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                                      Okay, so moving beyond the outright tariff policies, there has been a lot of talk about non-tariff trade barriers including currency manipulation. Is that accurate? And what are the other trade barriers they are alluding to?

                                      I think they've pivoted to this because they can hand-wave "non-tariff barriers", but not tariffs, which are publicly known and unambiguous. The example of a non-tariff barrier I've heard them use is a VAT, or sales tax, in Europe, and I've heard that calling that a barrier is nonsense, because it applies to Europe's own domestic products too.

                                      And as a side note, Netanyahu is now saying he planes on eliminating the trade deficit between Israel and the US. Please explain to me how a nation of 10M can possibly equal the economic consumption of a nation of 350M? Especially when much of that trade is based on precious jewels, which the US has little industry in mining…

                                      I'm hoping "trade deficits" are computed per-capita. They still wouldn't be a bad thing per se, but at least they would be a reasonable thing to talk about.

                                      8 Offline
                                      8 Offline
                                      89th
                                      wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 17:06 last edited by
                                      #555

                                      @Horace said in Trumpenomics:

                                      And as a side note, Netanyahu is now saying he planes on eliminating the trade deficit between Israel and the US. Please explain to me how a nation of 10M can possibly equal the economic consumption of a nation of 350M? Especially when much of that trade is based on precious jewels, which the US has little industry in mining…

                                      I'm hoping "trade deficits" are computed per-capita. They still wouldn't be a bad thing per se, but at least they would be a reasonable thing to talk about.

                                      I'm a bit concerned there is a concern about trade deficits in the first place. They aren't inherently bad, and one could argue in the current environment, they're actually a good thing most of the time. We're also in a global economy...different countries produce different goods with respective efficiencies. Let USA focus on what we're good at, let China do what they're good at. Plus it promotes peace, to an extent, too.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • D Offline
                                        D Offline
                                        Doctor Phibes
                                        wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 17:11 last edited by
                                        #556

                                        The idea that trade deficits are inherently bad really is surprisingly stupid. Does Trump actually believe this?

                                        I was only joking

                                        R 1 Reply Last reply 8 Apr 2025, 17:14
                                        • L LuFins Dad
                                          8 Apr 2025, 16:43

                                          Okay, so moving beyond the outright tariff policies, there has been a lot of talk about non-tariff trade barriers including currency manipulation. Is that accurate? And what are the other trade barriers they are alluding to?

                                          And as a side note, Netanyahu is now saying he planes on eliminating the trade deficit between Israel and the US. Please explain to me how a nation of 10M can possibly equal the economic consumption of a nation of 350M? Especially when much of that trade is based on precious jewels, which the US has little industry in mining…

                                          J Offline
                                          J Offline
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote on 8 Apr 2025, 17:13 last edited by
                                          #557

                                          @LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:

                                          And as a side note, Netanyahu is now saying he planes on eliminating the trade deficit between Israel and the US. Please explain to me how a nation of 10M can possibly equal the economic consumption of a nation of 350M? Especially when much of that trade is based on precious jewels, which the US has little industry in mining…

                                          Buy more weapons.

                                          "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                          -Cormac McCarthy

                                          kluursK 1 Reply Last reply 8 Apr 2025, 17:26
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