Lichtman's 13 Keys

[Mik]

Lichtman's "13 Keys to the White House" with my take on who wins them.

I count 8 R to 3 D and two uncertain. Yet he was yesterday sticking to his prediction of a Harris victory.

R - Key 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
D? - Key 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
R - Key 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
D - Key 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
D - Key 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
R - Key 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
R - Key 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
? - Key 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
? - Key 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
R - Key 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
R - Key 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
R - Key 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
R ? - Key 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

[LuFins Dad]

Yeah, Nate Silver was having an online argument with him. Lichtman was quite the asshole about it, and Silver kept pointing out that Lichtman was even misapplying his own keys.

[Mik]

That was my take, although I have not really read up on how he came to his conclusions.

[taiwan_girl]

I saw his name come up in a lot of articles, etc. "election guru" "election psycic".

He had his 15 minutes of fame I guess

[Mik]

He evidently has, or maybe had, paid subscribers who he was scrambling today to keep.

[taiwan_girl]

https://www.newsweek.com/allan-lichtman-election-prediction-assessment-kamala-harris-2024-1982610

I guess he still have a minute or two left of his "fame"

[LuFins Dad]

Idiot. He let his own desires/wishes taint his reading of his own keys. The smartest thing he could do at this point is admit as such and point to the keys still be correct despite being misread…

[George K]

[Mik]

Any port in a storm I suppose.

[Horace]

Educated white cultural conservatives have a script, and they'll follow it.

[George K]

Oh...my.

[Mik]

Hee hee. That's delicious.

[Horace]

It’s just so perfect that a member of the tribal expert class ends up clowning themselves in their old age, and is too stupid to realize it.

[Mik]

He was lucky that his keys lined up with reality a lot. But as all investments state, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It doesn't pay to get too convinced of your own superiority. Don't get high on your own supply.

[Horace]

He used prior results to develop his model. It’s called an overfit model and is known to be fool’s gold to anybody familiar with algorithms to predict the stock market, or with machine learning in general. Then there are the issues with the unquantifiability of many of his 13 factors. It’s absolute garbage, and the whole situation is a case in point of self styled academic experts being given absurd and unearned respect. And yes he is high on that supply, and it has turned him into a pathetic clown.

[Mik]

Couldn't happen to anicer more deserving guy. He monetized his nonsense and now his subscribers are all dropping him.

[89th]

He should've weighted some of his keys... for example, Harris got a "false" for likeability. Which is accurate. But I'd argue if you were undecided as a voter and saw Harris vs Trump in front of you... Trump is a leader, Harris is a "say what you want to hear". People want a leader.

[Doctor Phibes]

That guy's got the second least convincing haircut I've seen today.

[LuFins Dad]

Both Mik and Nate Silver nailed it. Lichtman’s keys were actually correct, he just misapplied them.

[LuFins Dad]

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