Lichtman's 13 Keys

[Mik]

That was my take, although I have not really read up on how he came to his conclusions.

[taiwan_girl]

I saw his name come up in a lot of articles, etc. "election guru" "election psycic".

He had his 15 minutes of fame I guess

[Mik]

He evidently has, or maybe had, paid subscribers who he was scrambling today to keep.

[taiwan_girl]

https://www.newsweek.com/allan-lichtman-election-prediction-assessment-kamala-harris-2024-1982610

I guess he still have a minute or two left of his "fame"

[LuFins Dad]

Idiot. He let his own desires/wishes taint his reading of his own keys. The smartest thing he could do at this point is admit as such and point to the keys still be correct despite being misread…

[George K]

[Mik]

Any port in a storm I suppose.

[Horace]

Educated white cultural conservatives have a script, and they'll follow it.

[George K]

Oh...my.

[Mik]

Hee hee. That's delicious.

[Horace]

It’s just so perfect that a member of the tribal expert class ends up clowning themselves in their old age, and is too stupid to realize it.

[Mik]

He was lucky that his keys lined up with reality a lot. But as all investments state, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It doesn't pay to get too convinced of your own superiority. Don't get high on your own supply.

[Horace]

He used prior results to develop his model. It’s called an overfit model and is known to be fool’s gold to anybody familiar with algorithms to predict the stock market, or with machine learning in general. Then there are the issues with the unquantifiability of many of his 13 factors. It’s absolute garbage, and the whole situation is a case in point of self styled academic experts being given absurd and unearned respect. And yes he is high on that supply, and it has turned him into a pathetic clown.

[Mik]

Couldn't happen to anicer more deserving guy. He monetized his nonsense and now his subscribers are all dropping him.

[89th]

He should've weighted some of his keys... for example, Harris got a "false" for likeability. Which is accurate. But I'd argue if you were undecided as a voter and saw Harris vs Trump in front of you... Trump is a leader, Harris is a "say what you want to hear". People want a leader.

[Doctor Phibes]

That guy's got the second least convincing haircut I've seen today.

[LuFins Dad]

Both Mik and Nate Silver nailed it. Lichtman’s keys were actually correct, he just misapplied them.

[LuFins Dad]

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