Lichtman's 13 Keys
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Lichtman's "13 Keys to the White House" with my take on who wins them.
I count 8 R to 3 D and two uncertain. Yet he was yesterday sticking to his prediction of a Harris victory.
R - Key 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
D? - Key 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
R - Key 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
D - Key 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
D - Key 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
R - Key 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
R - Key 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
? - Key 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
? - Key 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
R - Key 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
R - Key 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
R - Key 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
R ? - Key 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. -
Yeah, Nate Silver was having an online argument with him. Lichtman was quite the asshole about it, and Silver kept pointing out that Lichtman was even misapplying his own keys.
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I saw his name come up in a lot of articles, etc. "election guru" "election psycic".
He had his 15 minutes of fame I guess
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https://www.newsweek.com/allan-lichtman-election-prediction-assessment-kamala-harris-2024-1982610
I guess he still have a minute or two left of his "fame"
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Idiot. He let his own desires/wishes taint his reading of his own keys. The smartest thing he could do at this point is admit as such and point to the keys still be correct despite being misread…
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He used prior results to develop his model. It’s called an overfit model and is known to be fool’s gold to anybody familiar with algorithms to predict the stock market, or with machine learning in general. Then there are the issues with the unquantifiability of many of his 13 factors. It’s absolute garbage, and the whole situation is a case in point of self styled academic experts being given absurd and unearned respect. And yes he is high on that supply, and it has turned him into a pathetic clown.
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He should've weighted some of his keys... for example, Harris got a "false" for likeability. Which is accurate. But I'd argue if you were undecided as a voter and saw Harris vs Trump in front of you... Trump is a leader, Harris is a "say what you want to hear". People want a leader.
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That guy's got the second least convincing haircut I've seen today.
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Both Mik and Nate Silver nailed it. Lichtman’s keys were actually correct, he just misapplied them.
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