How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
@Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.
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@Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.
@LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Maybe there’s a little wishcasting going on when two separate people on this thread assume the ‘was Trump now D’ voters are faking it while the ‘was D now Trump’ voters are legit.
There is certainly some wishcasting when one poster notes that no Jew has ever told him that they were changing their vote to Trump, therefore that poster has never met a Jew who will be changing their vote to Trump.
For my own curiosity of the real voting patterns of those who say "they usually vote R but will be voting D", I wouldn't wonder if it had been phrased "I voted for Trump but now will be voting D". But that's not how it was phrased.
And the idea that it’s over antisemitism stretches the credibility.
Not if the blatant antisemitism of one's preferred party is merely the cost of doing business to keep Trump from the white house, while ambiguous anecdotes of slips of the tongue by a Republican that sort of seem like something an anti-semite would say, are the real Truth of where the hatred lurks.
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What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?
Nothing. Nothing new, either. That shit’s been going on in the extremes of both parties since well before Donald Trump.
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
What is ambiguous about Jewish space lasers? Or money-changing globalists?
MTG is clearly a theorist of Jewish conspiracies, but the guy who said something about soros being a money changing globalist, is a mainstream Republican in his support for Israel. If he's an anti-semite, he's doing it wrong. Much like Israel does genocide wrong, and white supremacists do white supremacy wrong.
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@jon-nyc said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
Results from the actual poll. Interesting numbers that LD omitted are the Jews who normally vote R but will vote D this time.
Even if there are 4 of Jewish voters that were dropping support for Trump, it’s still a new loss of well over 10% of the Jewish support for the Dem leadership. That is extremely significant, and is unsustainable for their traditional voting block. Everything I read says the Dems need to maintain X% of Jewish voters, Y% of Blacks, Z% of Hispanics. Losing any one of those spells defeat. Yet all of the crosstabs suggest they are losing ALL of those demos. So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.
@LuFins-Dad said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
So where are the replacement votes coming from? I strongly suspect nowhere, and we’re seeing an LV error by the various polling groups.
College educated whites broke for Hilary by +6 and Biden by +9. Harris has them by +18.
Probably more women generally due to Dobbs.
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If Harris wins a close one, it will be reasonable to attribute her win to SCOTUS' overturn of Roe v Wade.
@Horace said in How October 7th, 2023 is shaping the 2024 election:
If Harris wins a close one, it will be reasonable to attribute her win to SCOTUS' overturn of Roe v Wade.
I think that is true. That is why Republicans are "talking back" a bit their stand on abortion.
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