Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds
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@LuFins-Dad But to be clear, these are betting odds, not actual polls. (One might argue the former is a better gauge, lol)
wrote on 2 Sept 2020, 16:25 last edited by -
wrote on 2 Sept 2020, 16:34 last edited by
So does this just imply a lot of people are betting on Trump to win, so the bookies are adjusting the odds to match?
Or maybe it implies that people with a gambling addiction are more likely to vote for Trump?
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wrote on 4 Oct 2020, 01:44 last edited by
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wrote on 4 Oct 2020, 02:44 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
Maybe just because they are giving really really good odds!!!
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wrote on 4 Oct 2020, 02:45 last edited by
The odds are endogenous.
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wrote on 4 Oct 2020, 02:52 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
The odds are endogenous.
Okay, I had to look up that word, and still dont understand 55555
endogenous adjective
en·dog·e·nous | \ en-ˈdä-jə-nəs
Definition of endogenous
1 : growing or produced by growth from deep tissue- endogenous plant roots
2a : caused by factors inside the organism or system
- suffered from endogenous depression
endogenous business cycles
b : produced or synthesized within the organism or system
- an endogenous hormone
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wrote on 4 Oct 2020, 02:53 last edited by jon-nyc 10 Apr 2020, 02:54
Those probabilities are inferred from the betting.
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wrote on 4 Oct 2020, 02:55 last edited by
@jon-nyc Got it. Thanks!!!
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wrote on 10 Oct 2020, 22:55 last edited by
5 weeks later, Biden 2-1. Seems unsustainable?
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wrote on 10 Oct 2020, 23:05 last edited by
Is it possible to bet on weekly betting odds?
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wrote on 10 Oct 2020, 23:07 last edited by jon-nyc 10 Oct 2020, 23:08
You can bet on the trend indirectly but it’ll cost you twice the spread.
Just take a position now and the opposite after the odds improve. Assuming they do.
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wrote on 10 Oct 2020, 23:08 last edited by
So $100 on Trump would pay what? Not that I like his odds, but I am curious.
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wrote on 13 Oct 2020, 02:25 last edited by
Isn't it illegal to bet on elections? Read that somewhere. If not, I would bet a crap ton on Biden to win it, even if the odds don't pay much now. It's a guarantee, IMO.
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wrote on 13 Oct 2020, 02:29 last edited by
I think the betting sites are all offshore.
But I haven’t paid attention in a long while.
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wrote on 13 Oct 2020, 13:10 last edited by
I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
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I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
wrote on 13 Oct 2020, 13:41 last edited by@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
I think it depend on if the Republics are the losing party in this election. If they win or if it is close, then probably not.
If it is a big loss, then probably yes.
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I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
wrote on 13 Oct 2020, 13:55 last edited by@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
What exactly do you mean by De-Trumpification? What Trump policies does the GOP need to get away from?
The Brad
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@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
I think it depend on if the Republics are the losing party in this election. If they win or if it is close, then probably not.
If it is a big loss, then probably yes.
wrote on 13 Oct 2020, 14:20 last edited by@taiwan_girl said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
I think it depend on if the Republics are the losing party in this election. If they win or if it is close, then probably not.
Yes, obviously. I'm only talking about the situation when Trump looses, which looks likely at this point.
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@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
What exactly do you mean by De-Trumpification? What Trump policies does the GOP need to get away from?
wrote on 13 Oct 2020, 14:49 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
What exactly do you mean by De-Trumpification? What Trump policies does the GOP need to get away from?
The notion that truth and consistency don't matter. The "government by twitter" policy. The notion that allies are redundant and can be treated like shit. The "I like you if and only if you say nice things about me" policy. The blatant contempt for the pillars and basic rules of constitutional democracies. The blatant contempt for science when it conflicts with his worldview. And, while we are at it, the blatant contempt for true conservatism in the sense of Scruton et al. How's that for a start?
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@LuFins-Dad said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
What exactly do you mean by De-Trumpification? What Trump policies does the GOP need to get away from?
The notion that truth and consistency don't matter. The "government by twitter" policy. The notion that allies are redundant and can be treated like shit. The "I like you if and only if you say nice things about me" policy. The blatant contempt for the pillars and basic rules of constitutional democracies. The blatant contempt for science when it conflicts with his worldview. And, while we are at it, the blatant contempt for true conservatism in the sense of Scruton et al. How's that for a start?
wrote on 13 Oct 2020, 15:50 last edited by@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
@LuFins-Dad said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:
I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.
What exactly do you mean by De-Trumpification? What Trump policies does the GOP need to get away from?
The notion that truth and consistency don't matter. The "government by twitter" policy. The notion that allies are redundant and can be treated like shit. The "I like you if and only if you say nice things about me" policy. The blatant contempt for the pillars and basic rules of constitutional democracies. The blatant contempt for science when it conflicts with his worldview. And, while we are at it, the blatant contempt for true conservatism in the sense of Scruton et al. How's that for a start?
Many of our allies, particularly several memebers of NATO, badly needed some tough love. Many, like Germany, simply do not hold up their end of the bargain. The second and third points have some merit, as Trump does shoot, and then aim at times. For the science point, Trump realizes science is not always settled, and tends to go with his gut when faced with inconclusive data. For the last point, if you look at what he does, instead of what he says, Trump may be the most conservative President since Reagan.
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
