Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds

[George K]

@89th said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

these are betting odds, not actual polls

[Doctor Phibes]

So does this just imply a lot of people are betting on Trump to win, so the bookies are adjusting the odds to match?

Or maybe it implies that people with a gambling addiction are more likely to vote for Trump?

[jon-nyc]

[taiwan_girl]

[jon-nyc]

The odds are endogenous.

[taiwan_girl]

@jon-nyc said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

The odds are endogenous.

Okay, I had to look up that word, and still dont understand 55555

endogenous adjective
en·​dog·​e·​nous | \ en-ˈdä-jə-nəs
Definition of endogenous
1 : growing or produced by growth from deep tissue

• endogenous plant roots

2a : caused by factors inside the organism or system

• suffered from endogenous depression
  endogenous business cycles

b : produced or synthesized within the organism or system

• an endogenous hormone

[jon-nyc]

Those probabilities are inferred from the betting.

[taiwan_girl]

@jon-nyc Got it. Thanks!!!

[jon-nyc]

5 weeks later, Biden 2-1. Seems unsustainable?

[Aqua Letifer]

Is it possible to bet on weekly betting odds?

[jon-nyc]

You can bet on the trend indirectly but it’ll cost you twice the spread.

Just take a position now and the opposite after the odds improve. Assuming they do.

[LuFins Dad]

So $100 on Trump would pay what? Not that I like his odds, but I am curious.

[89th]

Isn't it illegal to bet on elections? Read that somewhere. If not, I would bet a crap ton on Biden to win it, even if the odds don't pay much now. It's a guarantee, IMO.

[jon-nyc]

I think the betting sites are all offshore.

But I haven’t paid attention in a long while.

[Klaus]

I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.

[taiwan_girl]

@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.

I think it depend on if the Republics are the losing party in this election. If they win or if it is close, then probably not.

If it is a big loss, then probably yes.

[LuFins Dad]

@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.

What exactly do you mean by De-Trumpification? What Trump policies does the GOP need to get away from?

[Klaus]

@taiwan_girl said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.

I think it depend on if the Republics are the losing party in this election. If they win or if it is close, then probably not.

Yes, obviously. I'm only talking about the situation when Trump looses, which looks likely at this point.

[Klaus]

@LuFins-Dad said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.

What exactly do you mean by De-Trumpification? What Trump policies does the GOP need to get away from?

The notion that truth and consistency don't matter. The "government by twitter" policy. The notion that allies are redundant and can be treated like shit. The "I like you if and only if you say nice things about me" policy. The blatant contempt for the pillars and basic rules of constitutional democracies. The blatant contempt for science when it conflicts with his worldview. And, while we are at it, the blatant contempt for true conservatism in the sense of Scruton et al. How's that for a start?

[Jolly]

@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

@LuFins-Dad said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

@Klaus said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

I wonder whether the GOP will have the will and strength for a thorough De-Trumpification of the party within four years.

What exactly do you mean by De-Trumpification? What Trump policies does the GOP need to get away from?

The notion that truth and consistency don't matter. The "government by twitter" policy. The notion that allies are redundant and can be treated like shit. The "I like you if and only if you say nice things about me" policy. The blatant contempt for the pillars and basic rules of constitutional democracies. The blatant contempt for science when it conflicts with his worldview. And, while we are at it, the blatant contempt for true conservatism in the sense of Scruton et al. How's that for a start?

Many of our allies, particularly several memebers of NATO, badly needed some tough love. Many, like Germany, simply do not hold up their end of the bargain. The second and third points have some merit, as Trump does shoot, and then aim at times. For the science point, Trump realizes science is not always settled, and tends to go with his gut when faced with inconclusive data. For the last point, if you look at what he does, instead of what he says, Trump may be the most conservative President since Reagan.