Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds

[LuFins Dad]

It’s not just the BLM stuff. I think there is also a COVID backlash. I have taken to stopping a couple times a week at an outdoor beer garden and in conversations with other patrons ALOT of people are thinking that much of this has been exaggerated at least a bit for political reasons and we’re pissed as hell. More than a few were self described former democrats.

[Horace]

Democrats tend to systematically overplay their hands politically, I suppose. The true believers live in social bubbles of their own careful creation, so it takes a while for the notion that people might disagree to seep in.

[Horace]

@Horace said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

Democrats tend to systematically overplay their hands politically, I suppose. The true believers live in social bubbles of their own careful creation, so it takes a while for the notion that people might disagree to seep in.

Pardon, I mean it takes a while for them to realize that reasonable people might disagree. Of course the notion that evil people disagree is the whole point of being a progressive to begin with. So it's always a given that the evil people disagree with them.

[LuFins Dad]

I never would have expected this a month ago.

[Horace]

The country wants the rioters put down but when it comes to saying it out loud, people are still bowing to the progressive shame machinery.

[Horace]

I wonder how this is parsed by those who enjoy giggling at the absurdity of Trump running against the riots, i.e. running against a thing that is happening in the country while he's president. I suppose those people simply can't comprehend why anybody might consider Trump and the right in general the answer to the riots rather than the cause. It's like TDS has parasitically taken control of their minds and is causing their mouths to make TDS noises exclusively, rather than thoughtful human sounds.

[89th]

@LuFins-Dad But to be clear, these are betting odds, not actual polls. (One might argue the former is a better gauge, lol)

[George K]

@89th said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

these are betting odds, not actual polls

[Doctor Phibes]

So does this just imply a lot of people are betting on Trump to win, so the bookies are adjusting the odds to match?

Or maybe it implies that people with a gambling addiction are more likely to vote for Trump?

[jon-nyc]

[taiwan_girl]

@jon-nyc said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

Maybe just because they are giving really really good odds!!!

[jon-nyc]

The odds are endogenous.

[taiwan_girl]

@jon-nyc said in Looks like a 10 point swing in betting odds:

The odds are endogenous.

Okay, I had to look up that word, and still dont understand 55555

endogenous adjective
en·​dog·​e·​nous | \ en-ˈdä-jə-nəs
Definition of endogenous
1 : growing or produced by growth from deep tissue

• endogenous plant roots

2a : caused by factors inside the organism or system

• suffered from endogenous depression
  endogenous business cycles

b : produced or synthesized within the organism or system

• an endogenous hormone

[jon-nyc]

Those probabilities are inferred from the betting.

[taiwan_girl]

@jon-nyc Got it. Thanks!!!

[jon-nyc]

5 weeks later, Biden 2-1. Seems unsustainable?

[Aqua Letifer]

Is it possible to bet on weekly betting odds?

[jon-nyc]

You can bet on the trend indirectly but it’ll cost you twice the spread.

Just take a position now and the opposite after the odds improve. Assuming they do.

[LuFins Dad]

So $100 on Trump would pay what? Not that I like his odds, but I am curious.

[89th]

Isn't it illegal to bet on elections? Read that somewhere. If not, I would bet a crap ton on Biden to win it, even if the odds don't pay much now. It's a guarantee, IMO.