It’s starting
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Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.
wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 13:14 last edited by@89th said in It’s starting:
Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.
I really think you are misreading the mood and momentum. Kamala had a ton of momentum going into the convention, but that has all stalled out. It started with the interview on CNN, and it’s gotten worse throughout the continued lack of policy positions, flips, Bernie saying the quiet part out loud, and the underlying suspicion of Walz. The polls have reversed course, with the last NYT/Sienna poll having Trump up +1 nationally, and the battleground states are worse.
What I’m seeing from Western PA, Michigan, and Blue Collar white areas is not joy, but anger, and it’s getting worse. In North Carolina and Georgia, Kamala is ringing false with the black community, and as a whole, they are a divided voting block. Dems can’t afford that. They need 90% of the black vote. The only real progress she’s had has been in the sun belt.
Oh, and this Haitian eating cats thing? It has legs, especially when paired with her proud speech about relocating several hundred thousand Haitians.
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@89th said in It’s starting:
Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.
I really think you are misreading the mood and momentum. Kamala had a ton of momentum going into the convention, but that has all stalled out. It started with the interview on CNN, and it’s gotten worse throughout the continued lack of policy positions, flips, Bernie saying the quiet part out loud, and the underlying suspicion of Walz. The polls have reversed course, with the last NYT/Sienna poll having Trump up +1 nationally, and the battleground states are worse.
What I’m seeing from Western PA, Michigan, and Blue Collar white areas is not joy, but anger, and it’s getting worse. In North Carolina and Georgia, Kamala is ringing false with the black community, and as a whole, they are a divided voting block. Dems can’t afford that. They need 90% of the black vote. The only real progress she’s had has been in the sun belt.
Oh, and this Haitian eating cats thing? It has legs, especially when paired with her proud speech about relocating several hundred thousand Haitians.
wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 13:19 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Kamala is ringing false with the black community
I think it was in Georgia where Trump won 9% of the black vote in 2020.
He's polling at 17% this week in that demographic.
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wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 13:51 last edited by
Silver’s latest model has Trump at 63.8%. Here’s his electoral map:
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wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 16:13 last edited by
Wow, yeah I'm probably wrong. Unfortunately if it's close, it'll feed the conspiracy/election deniers.... would rather have a landslide (even more than Biden's landslide) victory for one side or another.
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wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 17:23 last edited by LuFins Dad 9 Oct 2024, 17:24
Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.
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Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.
wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 17:51 last edited by Horace 9 Oct 2024, 17:52@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.
Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.
Also, I note that Silver himself calls this model a "prediction" of the election results.
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@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.
Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.
Also, I note that Silver himself calls this model a "prediction" of the election results.
wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 20:45 last edited by@Horace said in It’s starting:
Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.
She's been working with the same debate coach Hillary worked with. The guy dresses like Trump and tries to debate in his style. They've also brought some Hollywood people to do some consulting... She 's gonna bait him like a bear.
Plus, the MSM spin for her will be terrific. Shucks, I think ABC has already declared her the winner...
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@Horace said in It’s starting:
Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.
She's been working with the same debate coach Hillary worked with. The guy dresses like Trump and tries to debate in his style. They've also brought some Hollywood people to do some consulting... She 's gonna bait him like a bear.
Plus, the MSM spin for her will be terrific. Shucks, I think ABC has already declared her the winner...
wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 21:23 last edited by@Jolly said in It’s starting:
I think ABC has already declared her the winner...
Look at their publicity graphic.
Just kidding that’s from the Harris campaign.
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@Horace said in It’s starting:
Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.
She's been working with the same debate coach Hillary worked with. The guy dresses like Trump and tries to debate in his style. They've also brought some Hollywood people to do some consulting... She 's gonna bait him like a bear.
Plus, the MSM spin for her will be terrific. Shucks, I think ABC has already declared her the winner...
wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 21:48 last edited by@Jolly said in It’s starting:
@Horace said in It’s starting:
Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.
She's been working with the same debate coach Hillary worked with. The guy dresses like Trump and tries to debate in his style. They've also brought some Hollywood people to do some consulting... She 's gonna bait him like a bear.
Plus, the MSM spin for her will be terrific. Shucks, I think ABC has already declared her the winner...
70% of the population distrust the media. Ostensibly, a heavy media bias towards Kamala would help Trump.
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wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 23:13 last edited by
They may distrust them, but older people vote and the MSM is still their main source of info.
Shucks, look how a geezer like Jon leans on the NYT!
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wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 13:00 last edited by
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wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 13:14 last edited by
I'm going to be a freaking gazillionaire when Michelle is elected.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 13:26 last edited by jon-nyc 9 Dec 2024, 13:27
lol
Odd that Vance isn’t listed. One of the UK markets puts him a distant third, ahead of Michelle and the other names you see here.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 14:30 last edited by
Kinda expected that.
I think you see them tighten back up, if she continues to stay in her basement.
BTW, notice the behavior of the two candidates? After the debate, Trump left for the spin room and talked awhile. Kamala-lama-ding-dong went directly to her limo and left.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 14:51 last edited by
The daily show link shows a montage of him claiming polls say he won 92-7 or something.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 15:28 last edited by
If you listen to him, Trump has never lost anything in his entire life.
Considering how awesome he is, it's a little hard to understand why he always looks so bloody miserable.
He's
fatterbigger than Jesus! -
wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 15:41 last edited by
Ayup. Good week for Kamala. Will be interesting to see how much it affects the polls next week.
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wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 15:45 last edited by
The first poll post-debate showed Kamala got the win, but Trump improved his position by .5% https://nypost.com/2024/09/11/us-news/kamala-harris-opens-up-narrow-lead-over-donald-trump-post-philadelphia-debate/
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wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 16:06 last edited by
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lol
Odd that Vance isn’t listed. One of the UK markets puts him a distant third, ahead of Michelle and the other names you see here.
wrote on 12 Sept 2024, 17:22 last edited by@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
lol
Odd that Vance isn’t listed. One of the UK markets puts him a distant third, ahead of Michelle and the other names you see here.
Maybe now that Trump will be sentenced for his felony conviction a few weeks after the election? If he was sent to prison in late September, I bet Vance's odds would've gone up.
