It’s starting
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wrote on 8 Sept 2024, 20:22 last edited by
We have had our share of embarrassing presidential behavior over the last 50 years.
But Ms. Harris could take us places we haven't yet imagined.
On the other hand, she could be wonderful. It's hard to say while she is hiding.
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@George-K said in It’s starting:
"voters are unsure they know enough about where Kamala Harris stands"
Yeah, how about that.
Does it matter where she stands if she is unable to deliver on any of it?
wrote on 8 Sept 2024, 21:40 last edited by@Mik said in It’s starting:
Does it matter where she stands if she is unable to deliver on any of it?
Bernie Sanders said the quiet part out loud this AM.
"She's
sayingdoing what she needs tosaydo to get elected." -
We have had our share of embarrassing presidential behavior over the last 50 years.
But Ms. Harris could take us places we haven't yet imagined.
On the other hand, she could be wonderful. It's hard to say while she is hiding.
wrote on 8 Sept 2024, 21:58 last edited by@Copper said in It’s starting:
But Ms. Harris could take us places we haven't yet imagined.
Ask Willie Brown about that one...
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@Copper said in It’s starting:
But Ms. Harris could take us places we haven't yet imagined.
Ask Willie Brown about that one...
wrote on 8 Sept 2024, 22:09 last edited by -
wrote on 8 Sept 2024, 22:29 last edited by
Well, for one thing, Kap was hardly unknown. He was a starting QB in the Super Bowl. For another thing, a Donald Trump supporter should not be casting stones about a candidate’s sexual escapades.
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Well, for one thing, Kap was hardly unknown. He was a starting QB in the Super Bowl. For another thing, a Donald Trump supporter should not be casting stones about a candidate’s sexual escapades.
wrote on 8 Sept 2024, 22:44 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Well, for one thing, Kap was hardly unknown. He was a starting QB in the Super Bowl. For another thing, a Donald Trump supporter should not be casting stones about a candidate’s sexual escapades.
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Well, for one thing, Kap was hardly unknown. He was a starting QB in the Super Bowl. For another thing, a Donald Trump supporter should not be casting stones about a candidate’s sexual escapades.
wrote on 9 Sept 2024, 01:16 last edited by jon-nyc 9 Sept 2024, 01:16@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Well, for one thing, Kap was hardly unknown. He was a starting QB in the Super Bowl. For another thing, a Donald Trump supporter should not be casting stones about a candidate’s sexual escapades.
Imagine if it were Harris who had 5 kids from 3 different partners. Or twice as many divorces as the first 44 presidents combined.
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wrote on 9 Sept 2024, 01:33 last edited by
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@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Well, for one thing, Kap was hardly unknown. He was a starting QB in the Super Bowl. For another thing, a Donald Trump supporter should not be casting stones about a candidate’s sexual escapades.
Imagine if it were Harris who had 5 kids from 3 different partners. Or twice as many divorces as the first 44 presidents combined.
wrote on 9 Sept 2024, 02:11 last edited by@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Well, for one thing, Kap was hardly unknown. He was a starting QB in the Super Bowl. For another thing, a Donald Trump supporter should not be casting stones about a candidate’s sexual escapades.
Imagine if it were Harris who had 5 kids from 3 different partners. Or twice as many divorces as the first 44 presidents combined.
Beyond that, the guy sued a widow to get her to move out of her home so he could build a casino. He was one of the filthiest and most obnoxious guests on Howard Stern. He is the very epitome of sleaze.
And yet the Democrats keep putting up candidates that are even worse. It really is astounding.
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@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:
@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Well, for one thing, Kap was hardly unknown. He was a starting QB in the Super Bowl. For another thing, a Donald Trump supporter should not be casting stones about a candidate’s sexual escapades.
Imagine if it were Harris who had 5 kids from 3 different partners. Or twice as many divorces as the first 44 presidents combined.
Beyond that, the guy sued a widow to get her to move out of her home so he could build a casino. He was one of the filthiest and most obnoxious guests on Howard Stern. He is the very epitome of sleaze.
And yet the Democrats keep putting up candidates that are even worse. It really is astounding.
wrote on 9 Sept 2024, 11:57 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
He is the very epitome of sleaze.
I've come to the conclusion that a fair number of his supporters actually like that about him, which is quite a sad reflection of where we are.
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wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 10:24 last edited by Jolly 9 Oct 2024, 10:25
Kamala-lama-ding-dong has been holed up for a week, doing some serious debate prep. She knows the importance of this debate for her. If she performs poorly, wonder what the numbers shift will look like?
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wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 12:00 last edited by
Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.
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Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.
wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 12:21 last edited by@89th said in It’s starting:
Yeah much more risk for her in this debate.
Will she debate again? Wasn't the original agreement that there be three debates? Well, depending on how you look at it, there has been one, or zero debates so far.
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Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.
wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 13:14 last edited by@89th said in It’s starting:
Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.
I really think you are misreading the mood and momentum. Kamala had a ton of momentum going into the convention, but that has all stalled out. It started with the interview on CNN, and it’s gotten worse throughout the continued lack of policy positions, flips, Bernie saying the quiet part out loud, and the underlying suspicion of Walz. The polls have reversed course, with the last NYT/Sienna poll having Trump up +1 nationally, and the battleground states are worse.
What I’m seeing from Western PA, Michigan, and Blue Collar white areas is not joy, but anger, and it’s getting worse. In North Carolina and Georgia, Kamala is ringing false with the black community, and as a whole, they are a divided voting block. Dems can’t afford that. They need 90% of the black vote. The only real progress she’s had has been in the sun belt.
Oh, and this Haitian eating cats thing? It has legs, especially when paired with her proud speech about relocating several hundred thousand Haitians.
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@89th said in It’s starting:
Yeah much more risk for her in this debate. My predictions have been bad lately but overall there is a big shift (probably due to media coverage) of the awkward and cold approach of Trump/Vance and the authentic, warm, hopeful approach of Harris... like a mini Obama feeling from 2008 in terms of excitement and hope from her crowd. Hard to see her losing, which is something I really didn't think would happen a few months ago.
I really think you are misreading the mood and momentum. Kamala had a ton of momentum going into the convention, but that has all stalled out. It started with the interview on CNN, and it’s gotten worse throughout the continued lack of policy positions, flips, Bernie saying the quiet part out loud, and the underlying suspicion of Walz. The polls have reversed course, with the last NYT/Sienna poll having Trump up +1 nationally, and the battleground states are worse.
What I’m seeing from Western PA, Michigan, and Blue Collar white areas is not joy, but anger, and it’s getting worse. In North Carolina and Georgia, Kamala is ringing false with the black community, and as a whole, they are a divided voting block. Dems can’t afford that. They need 90% of the black vote. The only real progress she’s had has been in the sun belt.
Oh, and this Haitian eating cats thing? It has legs, especially when paired with her proud speech about relocating several hundred thousand Haitians.
wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 13:19 last edited by@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Kamala is ringing false with the black community
I think it was in Georgia where Trump won 9% of the black vote in 2020.
He's polling at 17% this week in that demographic.
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wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 13:51 last edited by
Silver’s latest model has Trump at 63.8%. Here’s his electoral map:
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wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 16:13 last edited by
Wow, yeah I'm probably wrong. Unfortunately if it's close, it'll feed the conspiracy/election deniers.... would rather have a landslide (even more than Biden's landslide) victory for one side or another.
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wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 17:23 last edited by LuFins Dad 9 Oct 2024, 17:24
Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.
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Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.
wrote on 10 Sept 2024, 17:51 last edited by Horace 9 Oct 2024, 17:52@LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:
Trump’s lead is as big as it’s been against Kamala. Tonight, he has the high bar of not being a complete dick. She has the much higher bar of showing she actually has policies and plans people would like.
Trump is inching closer to seeming human, at least based on the interview I saw recently with Fridman. But he will no doubt fail to pass simple tests of self-control in the debate, and Kamala will wink to the audience and project joy when he does. I have no doubt she has spent quality time with mirrors and body language consultants to perfect whatever it is she will be nonverbally communicating when Trump acts like Trump.
Also, I note that Silver himself calls this model a "prediction" of the election results.
