It’s starting

[LuFins Dad]

So here’s Nate’s final numbers and it’s a little confusing. They ran the model 80K times and Kamala won 40,012 of them. He points out that means nothing. He could have run it another 80K times and Trump would have winning… no statistical difference between 40,012 and 39,988…

But the weird thing is that looking at state by state modeling, it has Trump winning PA and the Sunbelt. Game over..

https://www.natesilver.net/p/a-random-number-generator-determined

[Mik]

[Copper]

And they all came back positive.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

Interesting. From Nate.

The Univision poll I referenced earlier, exclusively of Latino voters in Pennsylvania, showed her with a 64-30 lead, much better than she’s polled for most of the year in crosstabs of Hispanic voters and also better than Biden in 2020. And for its climactic closing event at Madison Square Garden, the Trump campaign decided to feature a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”. The Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has an outsized number of Puerto Ricans.

The largest Puerto Rican community in the continental US. Trump flipped it.

[jon-nyc]

So if she’s going to pull it off it’ll have to be due to her increased strength with whites generally and with women in particular. Relative to Biden.

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

So if she’s going to pull it off it’ll have to be due to her increased strength with whites generally and with women in particular. Relative to Biden.

Maybe.

Initial numbers show her doing better in some places, worse in others

Maybe we'll wind up 279-279.

Which is fine by me.

[George K]

[Horace]

Betting markets are now 80% for Trump winning the electoral college. Started the night in the high 50s.

[LuFins Dad]

@Jolly said in It’s starting:

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

So if she’s going to pull it off it’ll have to be due to her increased strength with whites generally and with women in particular. Relative to Biden.

Maybe.

Initial numbers show her doing better in some places, worse in others

Maybe we'll wind up 279-279.

Which is fine by me.

Really? I’m seeing very few places where she is outperforming Biden.

[kluurs]

Just eyeballing things, Trump seems safe to get around 250 w/o real effort. It may be PA that decides this thing.

[George K]

@kluurs said in It’s starting:

Just eyeballing things, Trump seems safe to get around 250 w/o real effort. It may be PA that decides this thing.

Though DDHQ called Virginia for Harris, there's some question about that being premature.

[Horace]

85% for Trump winning now on the betting market I'm following. Kamala better hope lots of dumb money is flowing in.

[jon-nyc]

Any chance we see MI, WI, PA called tonight? Because it's come down to those. (big surprise)

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in It’s starting:

85% for Trump winning now on the betting market I'm following. Kamala better hope lots of dumb money is flowing in.

How do we know it isn't a bunch of concerned Dems hedging their bets now following the trend and selling off in favor of Trump?

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

@Horace said in It’s starting:

85% for Trump winning now on the betting market I'm following. Kamala better hope lots of dumb money is flowing in.

How do we know it isn't a bunch of concerned Dems hedging their bets now following the trend and selling off in favor of Trump?

is there a sense in which that doesn't mean the betting public is gaining faith in a Trump victory? I don't see how the desired outcome of the people moving money around, makes any difference.

[George K]

@Axtremus said in It’s starting:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases.

That's Nate Silver's "pencils down" final answer for who his model predict will win the 2024 presidential election.

[jon-nyc]

Nice to see he didn’t get a majority. (If Nate’s right anyway). So close. I wonder what he’ll attribute it to? lol

[Jolly]

That's the late California vote.

As long as he still wins the popular vote, I don't think it's a big deal.