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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. It’s starting

It’s starting

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved General Discussion
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  • L LuFins Dad
    22 Sept 2024, 13:10

    @jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

    J Online
    J Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 13:38 last edited by
    #122

    @LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

    @jon-nyc I meant to ask, where is he putting the odds of a 269 split?

    0.2%

    IMG_0277.jpeg

    "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
    -Cormac McCarthy

    1 Reply Last reply
    • L Offline
      L Offline
      LuFins Dad
      wrote on 22 Sept 2024, 14:27 last edited by
      #123

      That’s dropped since Biden dropped out. I seem to recall it being as high as 4-5%

      The Brad

      1 Reply Last reply
      • J Online
        J Online
        jon-nyc
        wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:01 last edited by
        #124

        The fat man’s fall continues.

        IMG_0287.png

        "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
        -Cormac McCarthy

        1 Reply Last reply
        • J Online
          J Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:24 last edited by
          #125

          EC tie probability up to 0.3.

          IMG_0288.jpeg

          "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
          -Cormac McCarthy

          1 Reply Last reply
          • J Online
            J Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 15:30 last edited by
            #126

            Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

            Harris’ is +0.3

            "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
            -Cormac McCarthy

            J 1 Reply Last reply 23 Sept 2024, 20:20
            • L Offline
              L Offline
              LuFins Dad
              wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 16:07 last edited by LuFins Dad
              #127

              As you pointed out yourself, 53-46) in probability is a tossup.

              The Brad

              1 Reply Last reply
              • J Offline
                J Offline
                Jolly
                wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 19:45 last edited by
                #128

                Give the Word Salad Queen time.

                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                1 Reply Last reply
                • A Offline
                  A Offline
                  Aqua Letifer
                  wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 20:03 last edited by
                  #129

                  I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.

                  Please love yourself.

                  T 1 Reply Last reply 24 Sept 2024, 01:27
                  • J jon-nyc
                    23 Sept 2024, 15:30

                    Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

                    Harris’ is +0.3

                    J Offline
                    J Offline
                    Jolly
                    wrote on 23 Sept 2024, 20:20 last edited by
                    #130

                    @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                    Trump’s favorability rating - 10pts underwater.

                    Harris’ is +0.3

                    She's had 90%+ favorable publicity from every major broadcast media and every cable media, with the exception of FOX, for her entire candidacy. Trump has been 95% negative.

                    She ought to be better than than that.

                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • A Aqua Letifer
                      23 Sept 2024, 20:03

                      I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day. It's not like anyone in the country whose financial future is tied to a particular candidate actually likes any of these people.

                      T Offline
                      T Offline
                      taiwan_girl
                      wrote on 24 Sept 2024, 01:27 last edited by
                      #131

                      @Aqua-Letifer said in It’s starting:

                      I wish we could stop pretending that this is an election to decide on the best candidate for the country and start admitting that whoever's going to win is arbitrarily ahead in the polls on that particular day.

                      Aqua says the truth.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • L Offline
                        L Offline
                        LuFins Dad
                        wrote on 26 Sept 2024, 17:49 last edited by
                        #132

                        Leveled off, some signs it will start contracting again over the next few days…alt text

                        The Brad

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • L Offline
                          L Offline
                          LuFins Dad
                          wrote on 30 Sept 2024, 18:40 last edited by
                          #133

                          alt text

                          The Brad

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • L Offline
                            L Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on 1 Oct 2024, 15:19 last edited by
                            #134

                            Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.

                            The Brad

                            A 1 Reply Last reply 2 Oct 2024, 17:22
                            • L Offline
                              L Offline
                              LuFins Dad
                              wrote on 2 Oct 2024, 16:46 last edited by
                              #135

                              Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

                              The Brad

                              A 1 Reply Last reply 2 Oct 2024, 17:25
                              • L LuFins Dad
                                1 Oct 2024, 15:19

                                Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.

                                A Offline
                                A Offline
                                Axtremus
                                wrote on 2 Oct 2024, 17:22 last edited by
                                #136

                                @LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

                                Weird, RCP shows a .2 drop for Kamala this morning, but I haven’t seen any polls posted to support the drop.

                                Probably just changing weights as polls age.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • L LuFins Dad
                                  2 Oct 2024, 16:46

                                  Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

                                  A Offline
                                  A Offline
                                  Axtremus
                                  wrote on 2 Oct 2024, 17:25 last edited by
                                  #137

                                  @LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

                                  Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

                                  This links to an article dated Nov. 2016. You sure that's what you intended to post?

                                  L 1 Reply Last reply 2 Oct 2024, 17:58
                                  • A Axtremus
                                    2 Oct 2024, 17:25

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

                                    Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

                                    This links to an article dated Nov. 2016. You sure that's what you intended to post?

                                    L Offline
                                    L Offline
                                    LuFins Dad
                                    wrote on 2 Oct 2024, 17:58 last edited by
                                    #138

                                    @Axtremus said in It’s starting:

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in It’s starting:

                                    Nate posted this today. It brought a smile to my face https://www.huffpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_b_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

                                    This links to an article dated Nov. 2016. You sure that's what you intended to post?

                                    Yes.

                                    The Brad

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • H Offline
                                      H Offline
                                      Horace
                                      wrote on 2 Oct 2024, 18:05 last edited by
                                      #139

                                      Ax can't imagine why Silver would want to post a link to that.

                                      Ax's imagination should be studied by scientists.

                                      Education is extremely important.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • J Online
                                        J Online
                                        jon-nyc
                                        wrote on 2 Oct 2024, 18:53 last edited by
                                        #140

                                        IMG_0392.jpeg

                                        "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                                        -Cormac McCarthy

                                        L 1 Reply Last reply 2 Oct 2024, 19:48
                                        • J jon-nyc
                                          2 Oct 2024, 18:53

                                          IMG_0392.jpeg

                                          L Offline
                                          L Offline
                                          LuFins Dad
                                          wrote on 2 Oct 2024, 19:48 last edited by
                                          #141

                                          @jon-nyc said in It’s starting:

                                          IMG_0392.jpeg

                                          So Trump is performing 25% better than he was in 2016 and 300% better than he did in 2020? I’ll take it.

                                          The Brad

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