Bidenomics At Work
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BLS Jobs Report
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
The revisions:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 57,000, from +165,000 to +108,000, and the change for May was revised down by 54,000, from +272,000 to +218,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 111,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@George-K Thats a good thing, right? "Cooler" economy means less pressure on keeping interest rates high?
This isn't actually something very new. Been happening for years, not just under President Biden.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numbers.htm
The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)
So why doesn’t BLS wait until it has all the reports to make the estimate and avoid revisions? Users of the data are intensely interested in the earliest possible read on labor market developments, and experience suggests that the initial estimate is generally very good. For example, in 2012, the average monthly employment change using the first estimate would have been +142,000, compared with a monthly average change of +165,000 using the third estimate. (See table 1.) Nevertheless, it is true that in some months, revisions are large enough that they change the users’ perspectives on the current state of the economy. In November 2012, for example, the initial estimate of over-the-month change was +146,000, while the third estimate was +247,000.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/07/28/homeless-lack-of-affordable-housing-economy/
Article on people who have jobs (even full time jobs) and are still homeless anyway (often due to rent being too high/unaffordable).
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Because Biden jacked the interest rates and slowed the housing industry, coupled with a decrease in real wages during his administration?
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
@Axtremus said in Bidenomics At Work:
About doing "multiple gig jobs" vs. "one full time job," while "one full time job" is easier and more more predictable day-to-day, the "multiple gig jobs" model is arguably lower risk long term because you won't be completely out of work and out of income because an employer goes bust or terminate you all of a sudden.
Ax, have you ever supported yourself through multiple gig jobs? I'd be very interested in hearing about your experiences.
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@Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:
Biden jacked the interest rates
I am pretty sure the US Central Bank is independent. One of the great things about it is that it has been able to maintain its independence, and (mostly) avoids politics,
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@taiwan_girl said in Bidenomics At Work:
@Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:
Biden jacked the interest rates
I am pretty sure the US Central Bank is independent. One of the great things about it is that it has been able to maintain its independence, and (mostly) avoids politics,
You dump trillions of
into the economy, while racking up two trillion deficits and a rise in interest rates is a certainty.From Heritage...
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Money Supply
Jan 2017. $13.2
Jan 2021. $19.3
%change = 46.2%Jan 2021. $19.3
Jul 2024. $21.0
%change = 8.8%I am not an economist but I would hazard a guess that the period from Jan 2017-Jan 2021 had a larger impact on the economy (inflation, interest rates) than the period from Jan 2021 - Jul 2024.
The US economy is like a huge ship. You can start to turn the "ship" but it takes a long long time to make that turn.
That is why I have say many many times before. The president gets too much credit and too much blame because people only look at their term as if economic things that happen before and after their time have nothing to do with them.
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Indeed. The traditional conservative view of inflation would peg this clearly on the increase of the money supply in the spring of 2020. Precisely as Milton Friedman’s theory predicted, inflation increased dramatically 18 months later.
In sober moments Jolly admits this and makes weak noises about the perception of the electorate.
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Intel announces huge layoff:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/08/01/intel-layoffs-chips/
15,000 jobs; 15% of its workforce.
Biden has big plans to boost semiconductor manufacturing in the USA. The Chips and Science Act of 2022 allocates $52 billion in grants and $75 billion in loans to support the domestic chip industry. As the sole large scale semiconductor manufacturer left in the USA, Intel is expected to be the largest beneficiary of this. But none of the money has been released to Intel yet (still stuck in "due diligence").
But Intel has already missed the boat for smartphones and tablets (Arm wins this sector), NVIDIA is winning the AI chip race, and AMD is eating more and more of Intel's PC lunch.
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@taiwan_girl said in Bidenomics At Work:
@jon-nyc said in Bidenomics At Work:
We’re setting oil production records under Biden.
U.S. oil production is forecast to average an all-time high of 12.8 million barrels a day this year and keep growing to 13.1 million in 2024, the federal Energy Information Administration said in its latest forecast. That’s up from the most recent trough of 5 million barrels a day in 2008, and probably enough to help the U.S. to keep its title as the No. 1 global crude oil producer.
But what about federal lands?
In fact, though, oil production from federal lands and waters has risen on Biden’s watch, reaching past 3 million barrels per day last year. The high mark during President Donald Trump’s term was 2.75 million barrels a day.
And record production continues. Gosh darn President Biden!!!!
https://energynow.com/2024/03/u-s-leads-global-oil-production-for-sixth-straight-year-eia/
U.S. crude oil production lead global oil production for a sixth straight year, with a record breaking average production of 12.9 million barrels per day (bpd), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a release on Monday.
In December, U.S. crude oil production hit a new monthly record high of over 13.3 million bpd, the agency said.
“The United States produced more crude oil than any nation at any time, according to our International Energy Statistics, for the past six years in a row,” the EIA added.
The EIA says it is unlikely that the record will be broken by another country in the near term.
And again another record production of oil!!
In case you missed it, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday that domestic oil and gas producers set another new record high in oil production during the week ended August 4. U.S. producers pumped out an amazing 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) for the week, an increase of 800,000 bpd from the same week a year ago. This latest record represents the highest level of oil ever produced by any nation on earth.
and
Over the last 44 months, the industry has managed to grow U.S. oil production by 2.3 million bpd
If I do the math correctly, that is about a 30% increase in production during President Biden term when compared to President Trump.
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And regretted it.
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In the real world, we would say Biden-Harris have been cooking the books.
Wonder how much effect this has on TG's beloved charts?
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
Maybe in your world...
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@Jolly said in Bidenomics At Work:
In the real world, we would say Biden-Harris have been cooking the books.
Wonder how much effect this has on TG's beloved charts?
If they were "cooking the books", why would they release revised numbers now? If it was something that the politicians had control over, releasing it at this time would point to the Republicans. LOL
About your second question. No difference. I am still waiting for someone to offer "measurable" proof that there are certain things that are consistently better under a Republic or Democrat president.
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