In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak
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wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 13:06 last edited by
Loki, where are you getting these R estimates?
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The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 14:31 last edited by@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
Florida’s numbers started declining 2 weeks ago, which is a result of exposures 2 weeks before that. So what happened in Florida around March 15th to account for the drop?
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
Florida’s numbers started declining 2 weeks ago, which is a result of exposures 2 weeks before that. So what happened in Florida around March 15th to account for the drop?
wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 14:46 last edited by Loki 4 Dec 2020, 14:49 -
wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 16:52 last edited by
Vaccine ready by September?
80% confident
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The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 20:23 last edited by@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
de Blasio wasn't much better:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-bill-de-blasio-failed-new-york-city/609379/
On WYNC on Friday, he said researchers had only discovered “in the last 48 hours” that asymptomatic people can spread the disease. If Trump made the same preposterous claim, there would be howling calls for impeachment, renewed questions about his state of mind. Public-health professionals have known for months how the coronavirus spreads and who can do the spreading. If de Blasio didn't know, the fault is fully his own.
That would have been April 3.
When did this become common knowledge?
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wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 20:28 last edited by
Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.
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@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
I’m not ‘calling the shots’ I’m thinking out loud.
Why is all of this a ‘who’s up, who's down’ question for you? Don’t you have any native curiosity in the underlying topic?
Ok
wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 21:31 last edited byBiden has a plan to open the country. Your Easter egg hunt is to go find it. It’s pretty much a re-summary of what’s out there but he senses staying at home is not the plan.
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wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 22:14 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.
What's the counter-argument? What has he personally done, rather than play his very bizarre form of misinformed cheerleader?
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wrote on 12 Apr 2020, 22:14 last edited by
It wouldn’t be my plan either. I bet his plan looks a lot like what I’ve been talking about.
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The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 02:57 last edited by@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
The latest effective reproduction estimate:
US 1.04
NY. .99
FL. .91
LA. .78 -
wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 11:24 last edited by jon-nyc
God I hope its true. Have you found anything describing their methodology? It seems to be a simple calculation based on either case or death data. The only data source they list is the main page of JH's GitHub.
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Vaccine ready by September?
80% confident
wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 11:47 last edited by@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Vaccine ready by September?
80% confident
My understanding is the main constraint is proving efficacy and safety. I beat on the FDA as much as anyone for their Type1/Type2 error imbalance, but clearly in this case safety is of utmost importance since literally billions of people will take this vaccine.
I don't have any experience with the MHRA but I doubt the FDA will green light in September.
Maybe the scientist's definition of 'ready' is different than the pharmacists?
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wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 11:51 last edited by jon-nyc
FWIW we have more than one candidate ahead of this, already in trials.
I think the first person ever given a Covid vaccine got it almost month ago
eta: yep, March 16th
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Vaccine ready by September?
80% confident
My understanding is the main constraint is proving efficacy and safety. I beat on the FDA as much as anyone for their Type1/Type2 error imbalance, but clearly in this case safety is of utmost importance since literally billions of people will take this vaccine.
I don't have any experience with the MHRA but I doubt the FDA will green light in September.
Maybe the scientist's definition of 'ready' is different than the pharmacists?
wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 12:07 last edited by A Former UserThis post is deleted! -
wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 13:03 last edited by
What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.
I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.
The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.
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wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 13:20 last edited by
The number of people who want to go out will grow between now and November.
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What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.
I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.
The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.
wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 13:23 last edited by@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.
I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.
The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.
Fauci did himself no favors this weekend. The comments he made viewed one way is a no-brainer...If we had locked down the country earlier, the disease would not have spread as quickly. OTOH, in these hyperpolitical times, it was a comment that should have not been made.
As for vaccines...Beware of people who promise you the moon, if you'll just throw money at them. Also keep in mind what hoops any vaccine will have to jump through to prove safety and effectiveness to the FDA...Even the new FDA. A vaccine might be ready, and may be very promising, but not ready to inoculate people.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.
I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.
The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.
Fauci did himself no favors this weekend. The comments he made viewed one way is a no-brainer...If we had locked down the country earlier, the disease would not have spread as quickly. OTOH, in these hyperpolitical times, it was a comment that should have not been made.
As for vaccines...Beware of people who promise you the moon, if you'll just throw money at them. Also keep in mind what hoops any vaccine will have to jump through to prove safety and effectiveness to the FDA...Even the new FDA. A vaccine might be ready, and may be very promising, but not ready to inoculate people.
wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 13:34 last edited by@Jolly said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Fauci did himself no favors this weekend. The comments he made viewed one way is a no-brainer...If we had locked down the country earlier, the disease would not have spread as quickly. OTOH, in these hyperpolitical times, it was a comment that should have not been made.
And Trump made things worse by retweeting a #FireFauci tweet.
Now you want a scientist to guard his comments like a politician and you give a politician unlimited free passes for making idiotic comments publicly? What’s wrong with you?
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wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 13:42 last edited by
@wtg , Loki
So she hasn’t really gotten going yet and is looking for funding? Its kind of a weird piece. Horribly reported.
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wrote on 13 Apr 2020, 13:58 last edited by
Still, Jolly - it would be a really, really bad move to fire him. It would give more ammunition to those who say he doesn't listen to the scientists and would shake up an already scared population. This is a situation where a steady hand is needed, not management by chaos.