In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak
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Loki, where are you getting these R estimates?
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
Florida’s numbers started declining 2 weeks ago, which is a result of exposures 2 weeks before that. So what happened in Florida around March 15th to account for the drop?
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Vaccine ready by September?
80% confident
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
de Blasio wasn't much better:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-bill-de-blasio-failed-new-york-city/609379/
On WYNC on Friday, he said researchers had only discovered “in the last 48 hours” that asymptomatic people can spread the disease. If Trump made the same preposterous claim, there would be howling calls for impeachment, renewed questions about his state of mind. Public-health professionals have known for months how the coronavirus spreads and who can do the spreading. If de Blasio didn't know, the fault is fully his own.
That would have been April 3.
When did this become common knowledge?
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Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.
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@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.
What's the counter-argument? What has he personally done, rather than play his very bizarre form of misinformed cheerleader?
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It wouldn’t be my plan either. I bet his plan looks a lot like what I’ve been talking about.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
The latest effective reproduction estimate:
US 1.04
NY. .99
FL. .91
LA. .78 -
God I hope its true. Have you found anything describing their methodology? It seems to be a simple calculation based on either case or death data. The only data source they list is the main page of JH's GitHub.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Vaccine ready by September?
80% confident
My understanding is the main constraint is proving efficacy and safety. I beat on the FDA as much as anyone for their Type1/Type2 error imbalance, but clearly in this case safety is of utmost importance since literally billions of people will take this vaccine.
I don't have any experience with the MHRA but I doubt the FDA will green light in September.
Maybe the scientist's definition of 'ready' is different than the pharmacists?
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FWIW we have more than one candidate ahead of this, already in trials.
I think the first person ever given a Covid vaccine got it almost month ago
eta: yep, March 16th
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This post is deleted!
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What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.
I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.
The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.
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@Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.
I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.
The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.
Fauci did himself no favors this weekend. The comments he made viewed one way is a no-brainer...If we had locked down the country earlier, the disease would not have spread as quickly. OTOH, in these hyperpolitical times, it was a comment that should have not been made.
As for vaccines...Beware of people who promise you the moon, if you'll just throw money at them. Also keep in mind what hoops any vaccine will have to jump through to prove safety and effectiveness to the FDA...Even the new FDA. A vaccine might be ready, and may be very promising, but not ready to inoculate people.
Always remember, Operation Valkyrie was an act of sedition.
Warning: I post things that interest me. Read and comment at your own discretion. -
@Jolly said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Fauci did himself no favors this weekend. The comments he made viewed one way is a no-brainer...If we had locked down the country earlier, the disease would not have spread as quickly. OTOH, in these hyperpolitical times, it was a comment that should have not been made.
And Trump made things worse by retweeting a #FireFauci tweet.
Now you want a scientist to guard his comments like a politician and you give a politician unlimited free passes for making idiotic comments publicly? What’s wrong with you?
