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The New Coffee Room

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  3. In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak

In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak

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  • L Loki

    The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05

    Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?

    George KG Offline
    George KG Offline
    George K
    wrote on last edited by
    #72

    @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

    The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05

    Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?

    de Blasio wasn't much better:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-bill-de-blasio-failed-new-york-city/609379/

    On WYNC on Friday, he said researchers had only discovered “in the last 48 hours” that asymptomatic people can spread the disease. If Trump made the same preposterous claim, there would be howling calls for impeachment, renewed questions about his state of mind. Public-health professionals have known for months how the coronavirus spreads and who can do the spreading. If de Blasio didn't know, the fault is fully his own.

    That would have been April 3.

    When did this become common knowledge?

    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nyc
      wrote on last edited by
      #73

      Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
      Aqua LetiferA 1 Reply Last reply
      • L Loki

        @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

        I’m not ‘calling the shots’ I’m thinking out loud.

        Why is all of this a ‘who’s up, who's down’ question for you? Don’t you have any native curiosity in the underlying topic?

        Ok

        L Offline
        L Offline
        Loki
        wrote on last edited by
        #74

        Biden has a plan to open the country. Your Easter egg hunt is to go find it. It’s pretty much a re-summary of what’s out there but he senses staying at home is not the plan.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

          Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.

          Aqua LetiferA Offline
          Aqua LetiferA Offline
          Aqua Letifer
          wrote on last edited by
          #75

          @jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

          Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.

          What's the counter-argument? What has he personally done, rather than play his very bizarre form of misinformed cheerleader?

          Please love yourself.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by
            #76

            It wouldn’t be my plan either. I bet his plan looks a lot like what I’ve been talking about.

            Only non-witches get due process.

            • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
            1 Reply Last reply
            • L Loki

              The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05

              Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?

              L Offline
              L Offline
              Loki
              wrote on last edited by
              #77

              @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

              The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05

              Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?

              The latest effective reproduction estimate:

              US 1.04
              NY. .99
              FL. .91
              LA. .78

              1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nycJ Online
                jon-nyc
                wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                #78

                God I hope its true. Have you found anything describing their methodology? It seems to be a simple calculation based on either case or death data. The only data source they list is the main page of JH's GitHub.

                Only non-witches get due process.

                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                1 Reply Last reply
                • L Loki

                  Vaccine ready by September?

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-in-six-months-times

                  80% confident

                  jon-nycJ Online
                  jon-nycJ Online
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #79

                  @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                  Vaccine ready by September?

                  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-in-six-months-times

                  80% confident

                  My understanding is the main constraint is proving efficacy and safety. I beat on the FDA as much as anyone for their Type1/Type2 error imbalance, but clearly in this case safety is of utmost importance since literally billions of people will take this vaccine.

                  I don't have any experience with the MHRA but I doubt the FDA will green light in September.

                  Maybe the scientist's definition of 'ready' is different than the pharmacists?

                  Only non-witches get due process.

                  • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                  ? 1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                    #80

                    FWIW we have more than one candidate ahead of this, already in trials.

                    I think the first person ever given a Covid vaccine got it almost month ago

                    eta: yep, March 16th

                    Only non-witches get due process.

                    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                      @Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                      Vaccine ready by September?

                      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-in-six-months-times

                      80% confident

                      My understanding is the main constraint is proving efficacy and safety. I beat on the FDA as much as anyone for their Type1/Type2 error imbalance, but clearly in this case safety is of utmost importance since literally billions of people will take this vaccine.

                      I don't have any experience with the MHRA but I doubt the FDA will green light in September.

                      Maybe the scientist's definition of 'ready' is different than the pharmacists?

                      ? Offline
                      ? Offline
                      A Former User
                      wrote on last edited by A Former User
                      #81
                      This post is deleted!
                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • MikM Away
                        MikM Away
                        Mik
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #82

                        What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.

                        I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.

                        The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.

                        “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                        JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                        • CopperC Offline
                          CopperC Offline
                          Copper
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #83

                          The number of people who want to go out will grow between now and November.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • MikM Mik

                            What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.

                            I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.

                            The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.

                            JollyJ Offline
                            JollyJ Offline
                            Jolly
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #84

                            @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                            What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.

                            I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.

                            The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.

                            Fauci did himself no favors this weekend. The comments he made viewed one way is a no-brainer...If we had locked down the country earlier, the disease would not have spread as quickly. OTOH, in these hyperpolitical times, it was a comment that should have not been made.

                            As for vaccines...Beware of people who promise you the moon, if you'll just throw money at them. Also keep in mind what hoops any vaccine will have to jump through to prove safety and effectiveness to the FDA...Even the new FDA. A vaccine might be ready, and may be very promising, but not ready to inoculate people.

                            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                            AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
                            • JollyJ Jolly

                              @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                              What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.

                              I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.

                              The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.

                              Fauci did himself no favors this weekend. The comments he made viewed one way is a no-brainer...If we had locked down the country earlier, the disease would not have spread as quickly. OTOH, in these hyperpolitical times, it was a comment that should have not been made.

                              As for vaccines...Beware of people who promise you the moon, if you'll just throw money at them. Also keep in mind what hoops any vaccine will have to jump through to prove safety and effectiveness to the FDA...Even the new FDA. A vaccine might be ready, and may be very promising, but not ready to inoculate people.

                              AxtremusA Offline
                              AxtremusA Offline
                              Axtremus
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #85

                              @Jolly said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                              Fauci did himself no favors this weekend. The comments he made viewed one way is a no-brainer...If we had locked down the country earlier, the disease would not have spread as quickly. OTOH, in these hyperpolitical times, it was a comment that should have not been made.

                              And Trump made things worse by retweeting a #FireFauci tweet.

                              Now you want a scientist to guard his comments like a politician and you give a politician unlimited free passes for making idiotic comments publicly? What’s wrong with you?

                              JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nycJ Online
                                jon-nyc
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #86

                                @wtg , Loki

                                So she hasn’t really gotten going yet and is looking for funding? Its kind of a weird piece. Horribly reported.

                                Only non-witches get due process.

                                • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                                ? 1 Reply Last reply
                                • MikM Away
                                  MikM Away
                                  Mik
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #87

                                  Still, Jolly - it would be a really, really bad move to fire him. It would give more ammunition to those who say he doesn't listen to the scientists and would shake up an already scared population. This is a situation where a steady hand is needed, not management by chaos.

                                  “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                                  JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • AxtremusA Axtremus

                                    @Jolly said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                    Fauci did himself no favors this weekend. The comments he made viewed one way is a no-brainer...If we had locked down the country earlier, the disease would not have spread as quickly. OTOH, in these hyperpolitical times, it was a comment that should have not been made.

                                    And Trump made things worse by retweeting a #FireFauci tweet.

                                    Now you want a scientist to guard his comments like a politician and you give a politician unlimited free passes for making idiotic comments publicly? What’s wrong with you?

                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #88

                                    @Axtremus said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                    @Jolly said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                    Fauci did himself no favors this weekend. The comments he made viewed one way is a no-brainer...If we had locked down the country earlier, the disease would not have spread as quickly. OTOH, in these hyperpolitical times, it was a comment that should have not been made.

                                    And Trump made things worse by retweeting a #FireFauci tweet.

                                    Now you want a scientist to guard his comments like a politician and you give a politician unlimited free passes for making idiotic comments publicly? What’s wrong with you?

                                    As usual, you are late to the party. Fauci is a doc, but he's as much a politician as Rand Paul or Bill Cassidy. It's evident by things he has said in the past, but the primary evidence is the job he has held for quite some time.

                                    You simply do not get to, or function at that level without a pretty good knowledge of politics.

                                    Trump does hit the Twitter button much too quickly at times. But I don't care who the President is, nobody goes off the reservation at a time like this, especially in hyper-partisan times, without a major ass-chewing.

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • markM Offline
                                      markM Offline
                                      mark
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #89

                                      yeah, because politics is so much more important than providing accurate information.

                                      GMAFB.

                                      JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                        @wtg , Loki

                                        So she hasn’t really gotten going yet and is looking for funding? Its kind of a weird piece. Horribly reported.

                                        ? Offline
                                        ? Offline
                                        A Former User
                                        wrote on last edited by A Former User
                                        #90
                                        This post is deleted!
                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • MikM Mik

                                          Still, Jolly - it would be a really, really bad move to fire him. It would give more ammunition to those who say he doesn't listen to the scientists and would shake up an already scared population. This is a situation where a steady hand is needed, not management by chaos.

                                          JollyJ Offline
                                          JollyJ Offline
                                          Jolly
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #91

                                          @Mik said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

                                          Still, Jolly - it would be a really, really bad move to fire him. It would give more ammunition to those who say he doesn't listen to the scientists and would shake up an already scared population. This is a situation where a steady hand is needed, not management by chaos.

                                          He's not going to fire him, but I think you'll see Fauci backtrack at today's briefing.

                                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                          MikM 1 Reply Last reply
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