In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak
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@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Jolly is missing the point. It’s not that I (or Mik, or mark, or Aqua, if I may dare to speak for them), don’t want people to return to work. It’s just that we want an effective test and trace regimen in place when we do so.
It’s possible to end the economic catastrophe without a huge secondary (and probably more) waves.
I just don’t see enough will to do it.
That's a wonderful sentiment, but it may not be possible, either through an inability to test at the necessary level or Americans not allowing themselves to be traced. I know people who put their cellphones in a cooking pot as soon as they get in the car, not taking it out until they get back home.
So, what do we do?
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There have got to be safety protocols, massive testing, and contact tracing in place. Even if that takes another month, in my book that would be worth it. You want a line in the sand, there you go, that's mine. I like the Ohio plan.
I think what we don't do, because it would be absolute worst thing possible to do, would be to flip the switch and everyone returns to normal life starting Monday.
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Loki, where are you getting these R estimates?
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
Florida’s numbers started declining 2 weeks ago, which is a result of exposures 2 weeks before that. So what happened in Florida around March 15th to account for the drop?
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Vaccine ready by September?
80% confident
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
de Blasio wasn't much better:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-bill-de-blasio-failed-new-york-city/609379/
On WYNC on Friday, he said researchers had only discovered “in the last 48 hours” that asymptomatic people can spread the disease. If Trump made the same preposterous claim, there would be howling calls for impeachment, renewed questions about his state of mind. Public-health professionals have known for months how the coronavirus spreads and who can do the spreading. If de Blasio didn't know, the fault is fully his own.
That would have been April 3.
When did this become common knowledge?
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Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.
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@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Yeah I caught that. He’s been a failure in every conceivable respect.
What's the counter-argument? What has he personally done, rather than play his very bizarre form of misinformed cheerleader?
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It wouldn’t be my plan either. I bet his plan looks a lot like what I’ve been talking about.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
The effective reproduction number in the US today is 1.07 and NY 1.05
Remember Florida and the Governor... big big news a week ago? Florida is .92. Since Florida is now out of the news can anyone account for that?
The latest effective reproduction estimate:
US 1.04
NY. .99
FL. .91
LA. .78 -
God I hope its true. Have you found anything describing their methodology? It seems to be a simple calculation based on either case or death data. The only data source they list is the main page of JH's GitHub.
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@Loki said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Vaccine ready by September?
80% confident
My understanding is the main constraint is proving efficacy and safety. I beat on the FDA as much as anyone for their Type1/Type2 error imbalance, but clearly in this case safety is of utmost importance since literally billions of people will take this vaccine.
I don't have any experience with the MHRA but I doubt the FDA will green light in September.
Maybe the scientist's definition of 'ready' is different than the pharmacists?
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FWIW we have more than one candidate ahead of this, already in trials.
I think the first person ever given a Covid vaccine got it almost month ago
eta: yep, March 16th
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This post is deleted!
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What is scary lately is I have seen a lot more FB crap criticizing Fauci anfd Ohio's Acton and DeWine for being wrong with the models,calling these fine folks frauds.
I hope this virus blows away like a fart in the wind as temperatures rise, but I would not count on it. It seems quite robust.
The federal government can declare whatever they want reopened, but I know an awful lot of people who want no part of it. It would be a sure way to lose reelection for Trump.
