In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak

[jon-nyc]

CDC expects 3k deaths per day in May.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/internal-cdc-models-project-3000-daily-covid-deaths-by-june-1/

[George K]

@jon-nyc

Yup. With a total death toll north of 200K.

[Jeffrey]

Hi. Posting from NYC. Same tag as before.

[jon-nyc]

Hey man! Long time no see!

How's the fam?

[Jeffrey]

Good. You? Thought of you recently. Nice stats/science posting!

[jon-nyc]

Hanging tight, you know I moved to Westchester, no? I think I last saw you at the boy's birthday party maybe a year before we moved.

He'll be 11 next month. Your oldest is a teenager by now, right? 15?

[Jeffrey]

Yes. We now have three.

[Jeffrey]

Eldest goes to one of the Specialized HSs. Thriving with lots of friends.

[Jeffrey]

What is your take on the open up stuff? I suspect actual mobility among the population is not that different. Under shelter in place some people push the edges, under open for business many stay home.

[Jeffrey]

Hong Kong is interesting. High density, subways, near Wuhan. 5 fatalities. Near universal mask wearing. Maybe miracle technology is a mask. Just speculating.

[Copper]

Larry disappears, Jeffrey appears.

Coincidence?

[Jeffrey]

New Zealand, Taiwan, Hong Kong. Island pandemic success stories. Any landmass success stories? Greece, Finland? What worked and what didn’t. I am surprised there is not more country comparison analysis to guide future policy.

[Jeffrey]

Copper - How are you? I’ll try to post like Larry. He had a distinctive literary style. Can you still fly? You were/are an amateur pilot, no?

[Horace]

Larry and Jolly disappeared at the same time, so NS's theory that they're the same person has been vindicated.

[Copper]

I became a commercial pilot and flight instructor and bought a few planes. I taught for about 10 years. Last year I moved to southern Virginia and it has been over a year now since I've flown. I might still get hooked back up. I have kept my instructor certificate and medical current.

[Jeffrey]

Really cool.

[taiwan_girl]

There was a recent Rand report which tried to look at the "strength" of a lock down versus the number of deaths and versus the economic impact.

Obvious, that the higher strength the lockdown, the less deaths, but more economic impact.

I believe that they were using a economic impact of one life = $10 MM USD.

The conclusion was that there was a pretty bad payback for decreasing teh strength of the lockdown. In other words, the decrease in economic impact was not greater than the increased loss of life.

[jon-nyc]

@Jeffrey said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:

Yes. We now have three.

I think the third had been born before I last saw you, which I'm guessing was 2012, I want to say your middle boy came with you to my son's party at the science place on Atlantic ave.

Seems like a long time ago!

[Jeffrey]

How is your son? How is video-school? Did you shelter in place or go elsewhere?

[Jeffrey]

What is your opinion on the reopen stuff? Overheard from a dr I know “Open for business means the ICU has room for you.” On the other hand, the current shutdown is not sustainable economically or psychologically for most people for much longer.

I have no specific answers to any question.