In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak
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I must admit I have no idea what your prediction was. My frame was hospital utilization and deaths i.e the crisis in NYC. Obviously you are talking about something else.
The real key is if summer has impact. At one point Fauci expressed confidence it would die down with warmth and come back in the fall. I have no idea what the current thought on a pause due to weather is.
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@jon-nyc said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
My logic from above:
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our shutdown measures were insufficient to get the reproductive rate down below 1. That was based on data from Wuhan and Europe.
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a sharp drop in R but to a level greater than 1 will only lead to a temporary decline in cases/deaths, then they start rising inexorably from a new, lower base.
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the temporary decline will be interpreted as victory and will lead to a loosening of mitigation measures, which then increases the reproductive rate even more.
That was my logic above. Unfortunately it seems to be playing out.
Another specific prediction was:
When we look back from, say, the end of the year, we will not see April as the month with the most cases or the most deaths.
All this was stated in the second week of April.
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CDC expects 3k deaths per day in May.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/internal-cdc-models-project-3000-daily-covid-deaths-by-june-1/
DON’T let them eat cake.
- RFK Jr -
Hey man! Long time no see!
How's the fam?
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Hanging tight, you know I moved to Westchester, no? I think I last saw you at the boy's birthday party maybe a year before we moved.
He'll be 11 next month. Your oldest is a teenager by now, right? 15?
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I became a commercial pilot and flight instructor and bought a few planes. I taught for about 10 years. Last year I moved to southern Virginia and it has been over a year now since I've flown. I might still get hooked back up. I have kept my instructor certificate and medical current.
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There was a recent Rand report which tried to look at the "strength" of a lock down versus the number of deaths and versus the economic impact.
Obvious, that the higher strength the lockdown, the less deaths, but more economic impact.
I believe that they were using a economic impact of one life = $10 MM USD.
The conclusion was that there was a pretty bad payback for decreasing teh strength of the lockdown. In other words, the decrease in economic impact was not greater than the increased loss of life.
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@Jeffrey said in In which jon-nyc stakes out an unconventional opinion on the Covid-19 outbreak:
Yes. We now have three.
I think the third had been born before I last saw you, which I'm guessing was 2012, I want to say your middle boy came with you to my son's party at the science place on Atlantic ave.
Seems like a long time ago!
