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The New Coffee Room

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  3. The Ukraine war thread

The Ukraine war thread

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  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

    A way forward?

    LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins Dad
    wrote on last edited by
    #2647

    @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

    A way forward?

    So. Let’s discuss the US’ and UK’s failure to live up to the security agreements made to Ukraine in the 90’s. The failure runs through 4 US administrations and several UK governments. What were the obligations and how can live up to them now? Or should we?

    Also up for discussion, is the US and West looking at the Ukraine/Russia war as two separate events, while Ukraine and Russia treat it as one, with a cease fire in the middle? And does that different viewpoint cause confusion to both sides?

    The Brad

    RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
    • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

      @jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:

      A way forward?

      So. Let’s discuss the US’ and UK’s failure to live up to the security agreements made to Ukraine in the 90’s. The failure runs through 4 US administrations and several UK governments. What were the obligations and how can live up to them now? Or should we?

      Also up for discussion, is the US and West looking at the Ukraine/Russia war as two separate events, while Ukraine and Russia treat it as one, with a cease fire in the middle? And does that different viewpoint cause confusion to both sides?

      RenaudaR Offline
      RenaudaR Offline
      Renauda
      wrote on last edited by Renauda
      #2648

      @LuFins-Dad

      Let’s discuss the US’ and UK’s failure to live up to the security agreements made to Ukraine in the 90’s.

      Let’s not bother, because there really were none.

      The Budapest Memorandum merely stated that the US, UK and Russian Federation recognized the sovereignty of Ukraine and the integrity of its 1991 borders. The signatories furthermore gave Ukraine security assurances to Ukraine that in exchange for Ukraine handing over its Soviet era nuclear weapons arsenal it would receive technical aid and assistance from the US and UK to build a democratic polity based on a free market economy. The signatories furthermore pledged to provide all necessary technology and assistance for the remediation of the Chernobyl nuclear site.

      The key here is the term security assurances

      In the arcane world of diplospeak, security assurances are not at all security guarantees pledging the signatories to come to Ukraine’s aid in the event of attack by a third party. Likewise they do not represent in any way a mutual non aggression pact. Security assurances under the terms of Budapest Memorandum are merely non binding acceptance that the three remaining nuclear powers, the US, UK and Russia will continue to recognise Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the absence of the country maintaining its own nuclear deterrent capability. More importantly though, the assurances were also given in return for Ukraine’s signature to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a nonnuclear state. If you like, a bargaining chip to bring Ukraine on side - since Ukraine would retain its own technical capacity and know-how to produce its own nuclear weapons well into the future.

      At best the Memorandum suggested but did not promise, that the nuclear weapons Ukraine’s turns over to Russia will not be used against Ukraine (ha,ha, ha). In reality however it only meant that the signatories would give consideration to supplying Ukraine with the necessary conventional weapons it would need to maintain a defensive armed force from any third party aggressor.

      At the time this agreement was reached, Ukraine desperately wanted the Chernobyl site cleaned up as well a massive input of western credits and loans along with technical assistance from the West. Russia too wanted similar Western aid but it also wanted to be the sole nuclear power in the region. The US and the UK wanted Ukraine to become a signatory to the Non Proliferation Treaty as a non nuclear state. There was an optimism in West arising from the ill conceived belief of a peace dividend for Europe and the West that would result in liberal democracy throughout all former communist states. After all, that’s what free enterprise and open societies enevitably produce. It was therefore inconceivable at the time that autocratic Russian chauvinism and revanchist imperial aspirations would ever appear again. Life was at last a bed of roses.

      NB:
      Written on iPhone with a fat finger
      in one shot. Will not bother to proof read for corrections.

      Elbows up!

      LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
      • RenaudaR Renauda

        @LuFins-Dad

        Let’s discuss the US’ and UK’s failure to live up to the security agreements made to Ukraine in the 90’s.

        Let’s not bother, because there really were none.

        The Budapest Memorandum merely stated that the US, UK and Russian Federation recognized the sovereignty of Ukraine and the integrity of its 1991 borders. The signatories furthermore gave Ukraine security assurances to Ukraine that in exchange for Ukraine handing over its Soviet era nuclear weapons arsenal it would receive technical aid and assistance from the US and UK to build a democratic polity based on a free market economy. The signatories furthermore pledged to provide all necessary technology and assistance for the remediation of the Chernobyl nuclear site.

        The key here is the term security assurances

        In the arcane world of diplospeak, security assurances are not at all security guarantees pledging the signatories to come to Ukraine’s aid in the event of attack by a third party. Likewise they do not represent in any way a mutual non aggression pact. Security assurances under the terms of Budapest Memorandum are merely non binding acceptance that the three remaining nuclear powers, the US, UK and Russia will continue to recognise Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the absence of the country maintaining its own nuclear deterrent capability. More importantly though, the assurances were also given in return for Ukraine’s signature to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a nonnuclear state. If you like, a bargaining chip to bring Ukraine on side - since Ukraine would retain its own technical capacity and know-how to produce its own nuclear weapons well into the future.

        At best the Memorandum suggested but did not promise, that the nuclear weapons Ukraine’s turns over to Russia will not be used against Ukraine (ha,ha, ha). In reality however it only meant that the signatories would give consideration to supplying Ukraine with the necessary conventional weapons it would need to maintain a defensive armed force from any third party aggressor.

        At the time this agreement was reached, Ukraine desperately wanted the Chernobyl site cleaned up as well a massive input of western credits and loans along with technical assistance from the West. Russia too wanted similar Western aid but it also wanted to be the sole nuclear power in the region. The US and the UK wanted Ukraine to become a signatory to the Non Proliferation Treaty as a non nuclear state. There was an optimism in West arising from the ill conceived belief of a peace dividend for Europe and the West that would result in liberal democracy throughout all former communist states. After all, that’s what free enterprise and open societies enevitably produce. It was therefore inconceivable at the time that autocratic Russian chauvinism and revanchist imperial aspirations would ever appear again. Life was at last a bed of roses.

        NB:
        Written on iPhone with a fat finger
        in one shot. Will not bother to proof read for corrections.

        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins DadL Offline
        LuFins Dad
        wrote on last edited by
        #2649

        @Renauda TY, that does make me feel a little less horrible… It also paints the earlier Rubio speech from 2014 as hawkish hyperbole mostly delivered as political fodder going into midterm elections…

        The Brad

        1 Reply Last reply
        • JollyJ Offline
          JollyJ Offline
          Jolly
          wrote on last edited by Jolly
          #2650

          Let’s discuss the US’ and UK’s failure to live up to the security agreements made to Ukraine in the 90’s. The failure runs through 4 US administrations and several UK governments. What were the obligations and how can live up to them now? Or should we?

          We didn't live up them and we aren't going to live up to them. But we did place one piece of international Truth in the forevermore... NO sovereign nation will ever give up all of its nuclear weapons again. Not ever. Never.

          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

          jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
          • JollyJ Jolly

            Let’s discuss the US’ and UK’s failure to live up to the security agreements made to Ukraine in the 90’s. The failure runs through 4 US administrations and several UK governments. What were the obligations and how can live up to them now? Or should we?

            We didn't live up them and we aren't going to live up to them. But we did place one piece of international Truth in the forevermore... NO sovereign nation will ever give up all of its nuclear weapons again. Not ever. Never.

            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nycJ Offline
            jon-nyc
            wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
            #2651

            @Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

            . Let’s discuss the US’ and UK’s failure to live up to the security agreements made to Ukraine in the 90’s.

            I think you missed one of the relevant parties.

            I agree with your last point, BTW.

            You were warned.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • RenaudaR Offline
              RenaudaR Offline
              Renauda
              wrote on last edited by Renauda
              #2652

              We didn't live up them and we aren't going to live up to them

              I believe I more than adequately pointed out already that there was nothing for you, the US, to live up to other than give consideration to supplying Ukraine with defensive conventional weaponry to act as a deterrent to third party aggression. That supply the US has been honouring albeit at times grudgingly. LD certainly understood my message.

              Perhaps it’s a reading comprehension disability on your part. Doubt it though, you just want to be heard.

              Elbows up!

              1 Reply Last reply
              • JollyJ Offline
                JollyJ Offline
                Jolly
                wrote on last edited by
                #2653

                Rubio speaks...

                https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2025/03/02/secretary_rubio_well_be_ready_to_re-engage_when_zelensky_is_ready_for_peace.html

                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                1 Reply Last reply
                • RenaudaR Offline
                  RenaudaR Offline
                  Renauda
                  wrote on last edited by Renauda
                  #2654

                  Here’s the current reality as described by the President of Finland this weekend. Finns know the Russians, know where Putin is determined to take this war and how the West must respond. They have first hand experience with the Kremlin and remember the hard lessons history has taught their nation:

                  Alexander Stubb, President of Finland speaks:

                  https://www.facebook.com/swedishveterans/videos/1029926085633089/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

                  Elbows up!

                  89th8 1 Reply Last reply
                  • B Offline
                    B Offline
                    blondie
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #2655

                    I enjoyed watching that @Renauda . Thanks for posting this.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • MikM Offline
                      MikM Offline
                      Mik
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #2656

                      Good piece. It may be this was what Trump is after, but to precipitate it by threatening to be an unreliable partner is not diplomacy.

                      “I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • 89th8 89th

                        Yup totally. And Zelenskyy asked Vance his thoughts on Putin’s repeated violations of previous diplomacy and cease fires to which Vance threw a tantrum about not saying thank you. Vance should’ve said something simple about how this time it’ll be different because we have a leader that will enforce security agreements. Even Trump during the meeting said he’s the toughest person in the world but that he doesn’t want for it to come to that.

                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                        taiwan_girlT Offline
                        taiwan_girl
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #2657

                        @89th said in The Ukraine war thread:

                        Vance threw a tantrum about not saying thank you

                        https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/28/politics/volodymyr-zelensky-thankful-us-fact-check/index.html

                        During a remarkably combative Oval Office meeting on Friday, both President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he was insufficiently thankful.

                        “You have to be thankful. You don’t have the cards,” Trump said, adding a bit later, “You gotta be more thankful.”

                        and

                        Here are 33 previous examples of Zelensky thanking or expressing gratitude toward the United States, its officials or its people for their support. This is not a comprehensive list. Notably, we did not review Zelensky’s many domestic remarks in Ukrainian.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • JollyJ Offline
                          JollyJ Offline
                          Jolly
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #2658

                          Some people say if you watch the tape carefully, Zelensky called Vance a bitch. Not in English, of course...

                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                          jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                          • RenaudaR Offline
                            RenaudaR Offline
                            Renauda
                            wrote on last edited by Renauda
                            #2659

                            And so what if Zelenskyi did?

                            Baby Face deserved something much stronger like kurva or better yet, khuiya

                            Poor Baby Face, he and Trumpigula should have come to the meeting wearing clown noses.

                            Elbows up!

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • RenaudaR Offline
                              RenaudaR Offline
                              Renauda
                              wrote on last edited by Renauda
                              #2660

                              Dbl post

                              Elbows up!

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • Tom-KT Offline
                                Tom-KT Offline
                                Tom-K
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #2661

                                Link to video

                                Ryan McBeth. Short clip--listen to his last line, the best commentary on Trump ever.

                                JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                                • RenaudaR Offline
                                  RenaudaR Offline
                                  Renauda
                                  wrote on last edited by Renauda
                                  #2662

                                  @Tom-K

                                  That was a stellar close!
                                  😂

                                  Elbows up!

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • Tom-KT Tom-K

                                    Link to video

                                    Ryan McBeth. Short clip--listen to his last line, the best commentary on Trump ever.

                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #2663

                                    @Tom-K said in The Ukraine war thread:

                                    Link to video

                                    Ryan McBeth. Short clip--listen to his last line, the best commentary on Trump ever.

                                    I watch this guy's channel a good bit. Yes, his last comment is wicked. 😈

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • RenaudaR Renauda

                                      Here’s the current reality as described by the President of Finland this weekend. Finns know the Russians, know where Putin is determined to take this war and how the West must respond. They have first hand experience with the Kremlin and remember the hard lessons history has taught their nation:

                                      Alexander Stubb, President of Finland speaks:

                                      https://www.facebook.com/swedishveterans/videos/1029926085633089/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

                                      89th8 Offline
                                      89th8 Offline
                                      89th
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #2664

                                      @Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

                                      Here’s the current reality as described by the President of Finland this weekend. Finns know the Russians, know where Putin is determined to take this war and how the West must respond. They have first hand experience with the Kremlin and remember the hard lessons history has taught their nation:

                                      Alexander Stubb, President of Finland speaks:

                                      https://www.facebook.com/swedishveterans/videos/1029926085633089/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

                                      It's refreshing to hear such clarity and organized thought from a leader. Biden was a corpse and Trump is a headline-chaser.

                                      RenaudaR AxtremusA 2 Replies Last reply
                                      • 89th8 89th

                                        @Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

                                        Here’s the current reality as described by the President of Finland this weekend. Finns know the Russians, know where Putin is determined to take this war and how the West must respond. They have first hand experience with the Kremlin and remember the hard lessons history has taught their nation:

                                        Alexander Stubb, President of Finland speaks:

                                        https://www.facebook.com/swedishveterans/videos/1029926085633089/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

                                        It's refreshing to hear such clarity and organized thought from a leader. Biden was a corpse and Trump is a headline-chaser.

                                        RenaudaR Offline
                                        RenaudaR Offline
                                        Renauda
                                        wrote on last edited by Renauda
                                        #2665

                                        @89th

                                        Indeed it is not only refreshing but reassuring to know that there
                                        is still one adult left in the room in the midst of chaos.

                                        Elbows up!

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • 89th8 89th

                                          @Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:

                                          Here’s the current reality as described by the President of Finland this weekend. Finns know the Russians, know where Putin is determined to take this war and how the West must respond. They have first hand experience with the Kremlin and remember the hard lessons history has taught their nation:

                                          Alexander Stubb, President of Finland speaks:

                                          https://www.facebook.com/swedishveterans/videos/1029926085633089/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

                                          It's refreshing to hear such clarity and organized thought from a leader. Biden was a corpse and Trump is a headline-chaser.

                                          AxtremusA Offline
                                          AxtremusA Offline
                                          Axtremus
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #2666

                                          @89th said in The Ukraine war thread:

                                          It's refreshing to hear such clarity and organized thought from a leader.

                                          Hillary could do it.
                                          Romney could do it.
                                          Mayor Pete could do it.

                                          RenaudaR JollyJ 2 Replies Last reply
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