The Ukraine war thread
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wrote on 17 Feb 2025, 02:30 last edited by Renauda
I listened to an interview on satellite radio this afternoon with the Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski ( Anne Apelbaum’s spouse). Sharp guy, a real no nonsense statesman - reminds me of the late George Schulz with a touch of Gromyko’s poker face approach to diplomacy. Certainly knows the Russian mentality and his statements gave me confidence in what is unfolding. Putin might just find himself in check mate if he doesn’t negotiate in good faith and offer up Ukrainian territory.
In the last few hours Starmer has offered British troops for deployment to Ukraine. Expect Poland and even France and others to follow in the next few days.
We don’t know what all is on the agenda in Saudi Arabia. Of course Ukraine is on the agenda but you can be rest assured so is Iran and other Russian assets in the ME. Maybe even the Norks. There is a sound reason Europe is not invited.
Putin’s hand is weak and if he again doubles down that hand will get even weaker.
The goal at this point is a firm armistice and a long stable Cold War.
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wrote on 17 Feb 2025, 02:59 last edited by Mik
In 91 I was saying the celebrations of the USSR demise were premature, that the world was in fact less stable, more dangerous than before. That has proven true.
It had greater potential promise as well, but that did not materialize. At least not yet.
I’ll look for that interview. We will never get that kind of nuance from the White House.
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In 91 I was saying the celebrations of the USSR demise were premature, that the world was in fact less stable, more dangerous than before. That has proven true.
It had greater potential promise as well, but that did not materialize. At least not yet.
I’ll look for that interview. We will never get that kind of nuance from the White House.
wrote on 17 Feb 2025, 05:22 last edited by RenaudaNot the same interview with Sikorski that I heard on the sat. radio, but very similar in tone and scope.
This from yesterday, 15 February:
Link to video -
wrote on 17 Feb 2025, 12:42 last edited by
Thanks!
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wrote on 18 Feb 2025, 03:26 last edited by
Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
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wrote on 18 Feb 2025, 16:45 last edited by
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wrote on 18 Feb 2025, 17:19 last edited by Renauda
As long as Ukraine is in a state of martial law there will no presidential election. That much is written into Ukraine’s constitution. Any talk of it by either Moscow or Washington is unwarranted grandstanding at this time.
All today’s meeting accomplished was an agreement to reestablish diplomatic channels to facilitate the negotiation process. Along with the standard Kremlin line of bald face lies and distortions, I really didn’t get much out of Lavrov’s presser other than Russia’s demands of all parties remain unmitigated and every bit as harsh and punitive as they were three years ago. Perhaps even harsher. Russia continues to insist that it is the sole victim in this war.
Rubio is right, this is going to be a long and hard negotiation. It could break down at any point.
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wrote on 18 Feb 2025, 17:50 last edited by
I dont understand why at least Ukraine would not be involved in the initial negotiations. Maybe not face to face with Russia at the start, but they should be there.
Also think that Europe should be also. From a money standpoint, I believe that they have contributed both more money and materials to Ukraine.
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I dont understand why at least Ukraine would not be involved in the initial negotiations. Maybe not face to face with Russia at the start, but they should be there.
Also think that Europe should be also. From a money standpoint, I believe that they have contributed both more money and materials to Ukraine.
wrote on 18 Feb 2025, 18:09 last edited by RenaudaAt this point neither the US or Russia have ambassadors or a full working compliment in their respective embassies. Normal diplomatic channels between the two have been pretty much severed for the last three years. The US and Russia are therefore just trying to set up a diplomatic framework then to proceed towards a negotiation process. Once that process has been determined then I should think Ukraine will become a party to the negotiations.
Russia remains determined to receive Ukraine’s total capitulation. It stop at nothing to get Washington to agree to Russia’s absolute terms throughout the process.
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Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
wrote on 18 Feb 2025, 20:25 last edited by@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Just watched it. Rational and clear eyed.
The question in my mind is how badly does Putin want out of his own tar baby. That more than anything will drive how all this turns out.
The other factor is the Ukrainian population’s ability to continue mustering personnel. That I have no feel for.
Ukraine is staggering. They lowered their draft age from 27 to 25 about a year ago and stepped up recruitment efforts in the 18-24 range. They had around 8.7M draft age men when Russia invaded, now they have less than 5M ( due both to combat injuries and males who have fled the country). Ukraine has around 65K women volunteers in their armed services.
Russia has a larger population from which to draw. In the last twelve months, some sources state they've drafted about 280,000 men. They are also recruiting soldiers in occupied Ukraine. Ukraine claims Russia has lost 833,000 soldiers in the war.
Currently, it's February and conditions are not good for big offensive maneuvers, but when it dries up in the spring, I'm predicting a sizeable Russian push.
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wrote on 18 Feb 2025, 20:39 last edited by
Confidently rolling toward Ukrainian lines in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast in up-armored vehicles brazenly flying the flag of the defunct Soviet Union, an assault group from the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade paraded right into a minefield laid by the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade.
Mines blew up some of the Russian vehicles. Drones struck others and also hounded the dismounted infantry.One shell-shocked Russian crewman bailed out of his damaged vehicle, trudged a few steps through the snow, fell flat onto his back—and then exploded as a drone slammed into him.
***NSFW content***
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wrote on 18 Feb 2025, 21:36 last edited by Renauda
Right now am listening to Trump talk about Ukraine in a Q & A presser from his Florida palace.
Trump is laying the bulk of the blame on Kyiv for this war, among other exaggerations, deflections and distortions. I feel very sorry for Rubio, his boss’s inability to show any statesmanship or hold his tongue is making a very difficult task into a near to impossible task.
Normally I would ask for someone to pass the barf bag. But this time I think need the whole porcelain bowl.
Edit (2 hours later):
What Trump said:
"I'm very disappointed, I hear that they're upset about not having a seat," Trump told reporters when asked what he would say to Ukrainians who feel "betrayed."
"Today I heard, oh, well, we weren't invited. Well, you've been there for three years...You should have never started it. You could have made a deal," he said.
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Right now am listening to Trump talk about Ukraine in a Q & A presser from his Florida palace.
Trump is laying the bulk of the blame on Kyiv for this war, among other exaggerations, deflections and distortions. I feel very sorry for Rubio, his boss’s inability to show any statesmanship or hold his tongue is making a very difficult task into a near to impossible task.
Normally I would ask for someone to pass the barf bag. But this time I think need the whole porcelain bowl.
Edit (2 hours later):
What Trump said:
"I'm very disappointed, I hear that they're upset about not having a seat," Trump told reporters when asked what he would say to Ukrainians who feel "betrayed."
"Today I heard, oh, well, we weren't invited. Well, you've been there for three years...You should have never started it. You could have made a deal," he said.
wrote on 18 Feb 2025, 23:27 last edited by RenaudaDbl post
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wrote on 19 Feb 2025, 00:58 last edited by
How does he figure it’s Ukraine’s fault? Seems like stretch, but he may have hard feelings
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wrote on 19 Feb 2025, 01:00 last edited by
I may not have heard what Renauda heard, but I heard a lot of blaming of Biden rather than Ukraine.
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I may not have heard what Renauda heard, but I heard a lot of blaming of Biden rather than Ukraine.
wrote on 19 Feb 2025, 01:24 last edited by RenaudaThe blame Biden crap, I file under deflections and squelch. Just like Beauregard’s coffee and doughnut shop gossip around here.
You didn’t hear what Trumpigula said about Ukraine because you either weren’t listening or you didn’t want to hear it. To be honest I didn’t want to hear it either but I did and so did everyone else who was paying attention.
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wrote on 19 Feb 2025, 03:08 last edited by
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wrote on 19 Feb 2025, 03:57 last edited by
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wrote on 19 Feb 2025, 04:20 last edited by Horace
Word on the street is that Zelensky wouldn't even win an election in Ukraine right now.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
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wrote on 19 Feb 2025, 04:39 last edited by Renauda
I normally don’t look to CNN (or for that matter, any US news outlet) but the following clip is too good to pass up. At least two Republican senators haven’t drunk the Putin Kool-Aide:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/18/politics/video/roger-wicker-john-kennedy-trump-putin-digvid
Word on the street is that Zelensky wouldn't even win an election in Ukraine right now.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Surprised you would even give credence to a “street” poll under the conditions a country like Ukraine is currently facing. Must be for the sake of convenience or you actually believe Trump’s bald faced lies on the matter. On the other hand, you might get more favourable results if the poll were taken in Moscow.
Anyways, let’s just wait a few more weeks to see how brutally Trump continues to rubbish and belittle the Ukrainian nation and their President. Then, by all means, let Gallup do another poll. This one you posted is nothing more than old hat from last autumn.
Ukraine’s dilemma at this moment is not too far removed from Poland in August 1939:
“With the Germans, we risk losing our freedom,” said Polish commander-in-chief Edward Rydz-Smigly, “with the Russians our soul.”
