The Ukraine war thread
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@taiwan_girl said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Guns or butter. If we support ceding Ukrainian territory, how long until Russia rebuilds and attacks again?
If we agree to this all sanctions must remain in place and Russia be a true pariah in the world.
I agree. Hate to see President Putin "rewarded" in any way.
I too agree with both you and Mik.
As a close friend of mine and retired diplomat whose forty year career focussed on security and NATO related issues, pointed out to me in an email recently, Ukraine is the “ Free World's "Battle of Vienna”* moment; the time and place where we stand at the ramparts to defend our civilization and its values of democracy, freedom, human rights, equality, and rule of law.”
Putin cannot be rewarded or appeased in any way. Should negotiations commence Putin, in addition to the Ukrainian territory his troops have already occupied, will demand the whole of Zaporizhie and Kherson oblasts and quite possibly the whole southern coast of Ukraine along the Black Sea up to the border of Moldova and its breakaway province of Transdneistra. These demands will be couched as just reparations from Ukraine for the damage it caused to the Donbas, all Russian infrastructure and the loss of Russian soldiers and civilians since the conflict began in 2014.
I predict those demands, along with the unconditional lifting of sanctions, complete political and economic neutrality of what will remain of Ukraine rendering it a vassal state of the Kremlin, will be Russia’s starting points.
wrote on 11 Nov 2024, 02:14 last edited by@Renauda Good insights
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wrote on 11 Nov 2024, 02:17 last edited by
It is folly to believe Russia will negotiate in anything resembling good faith. He’d just like to win without further losses.
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wrote on 11 Nov 2024, 12:50 last edited by
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wrote on 14 Nov 2024, 17:54 last edited by
Cloaking the Norks, another lesson learned from Stalin playbook on waging war:
“History repeats itself in strange ways,” says Dr. Sayana Namsaraeva, a Buryat scholar and senior research associate at the Mongolia & Inner Asia Studies Unit at the University of Cambridge whose recent research work focuses on Buryat and other Soviet-Asian involvement in the 1950-1953 Korean War in which Buryats, Sakha, Tuvans and other Soviet Asians were deployed to fight for North Korea in the Korean War under the guise of Chinese volunteers.
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wrote on 15 Nov 2024, 16:54 last edited by Renauda
German Chancellor Schloz parlays over the phone with Putin:
Later on Friday, the Kremlin confirmed that the phone call had taken place, describing it as “detailed and frank.” Putin was said to have repeated his claims that NATO was to blame for the war in Ukraine, adding that Russia “remains open to resuming negotiations that were interrupted by the Kyiv regime.”
He was also said to have spelled out Russia’s “well-known” negotiating stance, including the country’s security interests, its current positions on the front lines and “most importantly, eliminating the root causes of the conflict.”
Putin still plays the victim.
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wrote on 15 Nov 2024, 18:44 last edited by
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wrote on 17 Nov 2024, 13:26 last edited by
President Zelensky has said the war in Ukraine will “end sooner” once Donald Trump becomes US president than it otherwise would have.
“It is certain that the war will end sooner with the policies of the team that will now lead the White House,” the Ukrainian leader said in an interview. “This is their approach, their promise to their citizens.”
He added that Ukraine “must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means”.
Zelensky said on Friday that he had a “constructive exchange” with Trump during their phone conversation after Trump’s election victory, although US legislation prevents them from meeting ahead of Trump’s inauguration in January.
“I didn’t hear anything that goes against our position,” he told the Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne, adding that he would only talk directly with Trump and not through emissaries.
“I, as the president of Ukraine, will only take seriously a conversation with the president of the United States of America, with all due respect to any entourage, to any people,” he said.
Trump has suggested that he will halt US aid if Zelensky refuses to negotiate a ceasefire with the Kremlin.
If the Russian president rejects any peace proposals, Trump has said he could instead ramp up weapons deliveries to Ukraine. He could also grant Ukraine permission to use long-range western missiles to hit targets deep inside Russia, something that the Biden administration has so far refused to sanction.
Putin has previously said that peace is only possible if Kyiv formally renounces any plans to join Nato. He has also demanded Ukraine surrender four regions in the south and east of the country, as well as Crimea, which Zelensky has so far refused to contemplate.
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wrote on 17 Nov 2024, 13:46 last edited by
Groundwork is being laid for The Deal.
On one hand, Ukraine will be under pressure to cut a deal or lose their major supplier of arms and ammunition.
OTOH, Russia will be under pressure, that Ukraine may get more and better weapons, with carte blanche to use them as they will.
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wrote on 17 Nov 2024, 22:41 last edited by
Back to the February 23, 2022 line and close the book on that one. Trump is going to make quick work of the negotiations and everybody's going to give a bit (or a lot.) It's a pointless war. It did isolate Russia and hurt it's economy for a long time to come and it strenthened NATO so that all turned out good but it cost a lot of money and a lot of lives. As to Ukraine in NATO, probably not.
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wrote on 17 Nov 2024, 23:09 last edited by George K
@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:
Not too long ago, Putin said that this is a declaration of war by the US.
WhatWho changed POTATUS' mind?Why now?
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@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:
Not too long ago, Putin said that this is a declaration of war by the US.
WhatWho changed POTATUS' mind?Why now?
wrote on 17 Nov 2024, 23:17 last edited by@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:
Not too long ago, Putin said that this is a declaration of war by the US.
WhatWho changed POTATUS' mind?Why now?
Notice that this is after Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump met? Think they had an agreement?
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:
Not too long ago, Putin said that this is a declaration of war by the US.
WhatWho changed POTATUS' mind?Why now?
Notice that this is after Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump met? Think they had an agreement?
wrote on 18 Nov 2024, 02:50 last edited by George K@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:
Notice that this is after Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump met?
When WWIII erupts, they can blame President-Elect Trump?
After all, if/when it happens, it'll probably be on Trump's watch. I've been assured that's how it works since Sept 11, 2001.
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@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:
Notice that this is after Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump met?
When WWIII erupts, they can blame President-Elect Trump?
After all, if/when it happens, it'll probably be on Trump's watch. I've been assured that's how it works since Sept 11, 2001.
wrote on 19 Nov 2024, 03:15 last edited by@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
When WWIII erupts, they can blame President-Elect Trump?
No. It's all on Putin's legacy. 100%
Until now Ukrainians only disliked Russians. They now hate them. Entirely Putin's doing. The pending armistice better be good because if it isn't, the Ukrainians will make the Provo IRA look like Boy Scouts.
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wrote on 19 Nov 2024, 12:32 last edited by
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wrote on 19 Nov 2024, 12:51 last edited by
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wrote on 19 Nov 2024, 17:14 last edited by
A long but very interesting piece on recent military and political events. The analysis on how European diplomacy is functioning is insightful.
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wrote on 28 Nov 2024, 13:47 last edited by
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wrote on 28 Nov 2024, 14:34 last edited by
Nice
Next comes anti-spoofing, then anti-anti-spoofing, then anti-anti-anti-spoofing...
Lots of fun for the guys who have these toys.
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wrote on 28 Nov 2024, 22:09 last edited by
Angela, forgive me...
Putin never lies.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/28/angela-forgive-me-putin-denies-intentionally-scaring-merkel-with-dog-a87164
