The Ukraine war thread
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Is Russia Running Out Of Missiles?
Russia is running low on missiles, especially those that the Iskander road-mobile system equips. Ukraine’s intelligence director said that Vladimir Putin’s forces have only 13% of the supply of Iskander ballistic missiles that Russia held before the war. This leaves Russian forces to rely on Iran-made Shahed loitering drones to attack Ukraine.
Ukrainian spy master Kyrylo Budanov said recently that Russian “missile stocks are almost exhausted.” Budanov said Russia is turning to the cheaper Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 drones, and these are getting destroyed in the air – 330 have been launched at Ukrainian targets and 222 have been shot down, Budanov claimed.
While there is no independent confirmation of these numbers, it stands to reason that Russia is running out of Iskanders, as well as other missiles such as the Kalibr. This has to make Moscow wonder if its military can continue to target critical infrastructure in strikes designed to take out electrical power and water plants in Ukraine. On Oct. 31, dozens of cruise missiles and kamikaze drones hit these facilities, creating electricity and water outages throughout the country.
Russia’s missile force could not have foreseen the depletion of these stocks in a war that has raged almost all year. The Iskander was believed to be impervious to missile defenses, but in reality it is falling even to unlikely defensive systems such as MANPADs. Ukraine boasted on Oct. 29 that a Ukrainian man-portable air defense system downed an Iskander near the city of Zaporizhzhia. While the action was not a direct hit, the Iskander reportedly left its trajectory and hit the ground far short of its target.
This is yet another wartime disappointment for Vladimir Putin. His generals must have told him that Russian ballistic missiles would strike fear into Ukraine and push Kyiv to surrender. But the war has gone on longer than planned, and Iskander stocks are running low. Ukraine has done a good job shooting them down, and it may soon get HAWK surface-to-air missiles from the United States to take care of the Iranian drones. Ukraine and its allies are answering the surface-to-surface missile advantages that Moscow enjoyed before the war. Russia will have to depend on a defense industry beset by international sanctions to replenish Iskander missile stocks.
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Weekend attack on Sevastopol, British Forces report and video:
“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Somewhat related. Size of Ukraine vs US
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Meduza io is a Russian news source published in Latvia. The link describes the mobilization clusterfuck in just one district:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/11/02/like-having-a-tank-operator-fly-a-plane
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His concern is not only that any conceivable deal will appear as a loss, but a deal that truly ends the fighting will be followed by a reckoning. So long as the war continues Putin is protected to a degree by patriotic urges to support the motherland when it is in peril, and also the opportunities war provides for censorship and tight control of all dissent. Without the war the consequences of his folly will be exposed. The legacy will not be expanded territory but instead a contracted economy, continued international isolation, a diminished reputation, and a multitude of disillusioned followers, bereaved families, and traumatised veterans with nothing to remember with pride.
Why Putin prefers war to diplomacy:
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