The Ukraine war thread

[Jolly]

@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

I think he genuinely believes Ukraine is not an American issue. I disagree vehemently.

I think Trump believes Ukraine is primarily a European issue and the Europeans should be the leaders on countering Russian aggression.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

I think he genuinely believes Ukraine is not an American issue. I disagree vehemently.

I think Trump believes Ukraine is primarily a European issue and the Europeans should be the leaders on countering Russian aggression.

If they don't, though, is it worth watching it from afar because we shouldn't have been the ones to do the legwork?

[Aqua Letifer]

@Doctor-Phibes said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

I think he genuinely believes Ukraine is not an American issue. I disagree vehemently.

The 1930's are supposed to be a warning, not a guide.

You mean how everyone sat on their ass and let Ukraine Poland be whatever until things got weird in France and oh hey, maybe we should do something about this?

[Jolly]

@Aqua-Letifer said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

I think he genuinely believes Ukraine is not an American issue. I disagree vehemently.

I think Trump believes Ukraine is primarily a European issue and the Europeans should be the leaders on countering Russian aggression.

If they don't, though, is it worth watching it from afar because we shouldn't have been the ones to do the legwork?

That's a really good question ad one where I think there are good people on both sides of the issue.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Aqua-Letifer said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:

I think he genuinely believes Ukraine is not an American issue. I disagree vehemently.

I think Trump believes Ukraine is primarily a European issue and the Europeans should be the leaders on countering Russian aggression.

If they don't, though, is it worth watching it from afar because we shouldn't have been the ones to do the legwork?

That's a really good question ad one where I think there are good people on both sides of the issue.

I think the last century taught us that it's better to get involved in situations that can potentially affect everyone as soon as possible, rather than wait for the problem to get worse.

But that's as far as I'm willing to go with having an opinion. I'm not even close to an international politics or military expert.

[Jolly]

As I see it...

1. USA
2. North America
3. Tie. South America/Europe
4. Australia
5. South Pacific, including Japan, the Phillipines and South Korea.
6. Everything else.

And past #3, I'll bend like Gumby.

I have an open mind.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

As I see it...

1. USA
2. North America
3. Tie. South America/Europe
4. Australia
5. South Pacific, including Japan, the Phillipines and South Korea.
6. Everything else.

And past #3, I'll bend like Gumby.

I have an open mind.

I think a lot of people would argue that Russia's machinations have a direct and material impact on numbers 1-3.

[Wim]

@Aqua-Letifer You're a little bit wrong. Depending on what Russia will/won't achieve, China will adapt its strategies to what the USA will/won't do.

[Aqua Letifer]

@Wim said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Aqua-Letifer You're a little bit wrong. Depending on what Russia will/won't achieve, China will adapt its strategies to what the USA will/won't do.

Well, there's that, too.

[Jolly]

@Wim said in The Ukraine war thread:

@Aqua-Letifer You're a little bit wrong. Depending on what Russia will/won't achieve, China will adapt its strategies to what the USA will/won't do.

Starting to wonder about China. The Belt and Road looks like it needs suspenders...

[Mik]

I think China's plans are somewhat based on an assumption that the US is a power in decline. I think they are wrong in that. Our innate ability to right our own ship is something they lack.

[Renauda]

@Mik

What you refer to as innate ability, is the fact that the US has very robust institutions of democratic governance that have been built up and improved upon over time. Such is not the case for Russia and China.

[Mik]

Spot on.

[Mik]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-preparing-russians-for-defeats-in-ukraine/ar-AA1blsKw?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=f5f9c7c659494501cc4c03ba113fdc6c&ei=55

[George K]

Bakhmut has fallen to the Russians.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-important-is-claimed-capture-by-russias-wagner-group-ukraines-bakhmut-2023-05-20/

[Jolly]

The Russians are getting better.

OTOH, Ukranian pilots shocked the USAF recently. After rolling them through a brief F-16 simulator training, the Air Force thinks they can have the Ukrainians flight tested in the F-16 and combat ready in 120 days.

[Mik]

@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:

Bakhmut has fallen to the Russians.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-important-is-claimed-capture-by-russias-wagner-group-ukraines-bakhmut-2023-05-20/

It was by all accounts a Pyrrhic victory.

[Jolly]

Yes, but what it does give them, is a victory, of which they have had very few of late.

It also puts the Russians into artillery range of two larger, more industrialized cities.

[George K]

@Jolly said in The Ukraine war thread:

It also puts the Russians into artillery range of two larger, more industrialized cities.

"If the enemy is in range, so are you."

[Renauda]

Prigozhin and the Kremlin can say what they want and, as the saying in Russian goes, try to make candy out of a turd.

My hunch is that Bakhmut has not fallen to the Russians. Instead the Russians in Bakhmut have been surrounded on all sides by advancing Ukrainian forces.