The Ukraine war thread
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The treaty itself has already been moribund for some time. Well before last year’s offensive against Ukraine, Russia began obstructing or even refusing verification inspection under the treaty.
Putin is just resorting to his usual bluster and extortion tactics. The fact that his speech focused on domestic issues and avoided altogether an assessment, even falsified, of what is actually happening on the battlefield, indicates he is at least aware that his prestige and authority are more vulnerable now than ever. It boils down to damage control of his desired legacy.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
his speech focused on domestic issues and avoided altogether an assessment, even falsified, of what is actually happening
I read a similar assessment. Other than the usual "always part of Russia," "Nazis," etc bullshit, there was really nothing he said of any substance.
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“There is a large group in power who believe that victory is needed and that is all. At the same time, they can't explain what the victory is, except for reaching Kyiv."
But most government officials and top business executives, according to the government source, are interested in a peace agreement as soon as possible.
"The general mood overall is negative, everyone's tired," he said.
Russians react to Putin’s 2 hour harangue:
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Wonder how much you can learn in five weeks?
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/21/qa-dr-pavel-felgenhauer-russia-ukraine-war
Some of the comments:
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=Al Jazeera spoke to Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian defence analyst who served as a senior research officer in the Soviet Academy of Sciences.
Al Jazeera: Why do you think an escalation is imminent?
Pavel Felgenhauer: We cannot totally predict everything. But I believe that an escalation right now is imminent. An escalation in the fighting; everyone is talking about a Russian offensive. Western military commanders in Brussels are also talking about how the Ukrainians should go on the offensive.
Al Jazeera: Isn’t Russia faring better than expected? Doesn’t the economy seem to be stable even after strict sanctions?
Felgenhauer: Russia, of course right now, has very serious financial problems with a deficit that’s being financed by printing money. It has problems on the battlefield at the same time.
I don’t see how this can continue in the present pattern for a long time. It’s like football, you never know what’s going to happen actually on the battlefield. There’s a well-known saying that “Russia is never a strong as your fear”, as we see during this year, but “Russia is also never as weak as you hope”. So you can’t just write off Russia. The intensity of the fighting is too high for it to be maintained for long.
Al Jazeera: If it is such a drag, why did Russian President Vladimir Putin go to war?
Felgenhauer: There was a military reason — to prevent Western missiles appearing in Ukraine for a direct strike on Moscow.
There was a geopolitical reason — to reunite the Russian people, assuming that Ukrainians are Russian people, and to defy the West and actually undermine Western unity.
Also, to cause friction within the Western alliance and also establish a new multipolar world.
Al Jazeera: So what went wrong for Russia?
Felgenhauer: The Russian military turned out to be not as strong as not only the West believes, but its own leadership believes. It’s not ready for modern warfare.
The Ukrainians are much better, they were better prepared organisationally and in terms of command and control, in terms of command personnel, and then they got better weapons than the Russians.
The Russian military has been isolated for more than 100 years from world tendencies in war-making. They are still living in the world of tanks, believing that if you mass enough, victory falls into your lap.
Al Jazeera: Do you believe that this conflict will come to its end soon?
Felgenhauer: I believe it will end this year.
They tried talks in March, then meetings in Istanbul, which hinted that they’re moving towards some kind of an agreement. But Russia and Ukraine were miles apart.
Ukraine was more or less ready to agree in February 2022. Now Ukrainians say they want more and Russia also says it wants more. So again, two sides are miles apart.
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I wager that all NATO members will soon have no choice other than to ramp up their military production and allocate fiscal resources into defence and security.
Will be a hard pill for the federal and even provincial governments in this country to have to swallow.