The Ukraine war thread
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The war in Ukraine continues on day 361. Russian forces are still in search of a breakthrough in the Donbas, without any success as the Ukrainian military continues to put a stiff resistance all across the battlefield.
The Russian military has committed well over 90 percent of all its ground forces in Ukraine, according to Chairman of the Military Committee of NATO and Royal Netherlands Navy Admiral Rob Bauer.
That means that the Kremlin has almost no reserves to pull from, and it depends on further force generation methods to bolster its size and fill the gaps created by the war.
However, the Russian Ministry of Defense hasn’t been very efficient in recruiting, training, and deploying new troops.
For yet another day, Russian forces are suffering heavy casualties on the ground in Ukraine.
Russian commanders continue to commit troops in mass frontal assaults and against Ukrainian fortifications.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Sunday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 142,860 Russian troops (and wounded approximately twice to thrice that number)
Destroyed equipment includes: 298 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 287 attack and transport helicopters, 3,310 tanks, 2,327 artillery pieces, 6,545 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 469 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,196 vehicles and fuel tanks, 243 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,016 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 224special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 873 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Can these numbers be real? Almost 150K KIA?
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The war in Ukraine continues on day 361. Russian forces are still in search of a breakthrough in the Donbas, without any success as the Ukrainian military continues to put a stiff resistance all across the battlefield.
The Russian military has committed well over 90 percent of all its ground forces in Ukraine, according to Chairman of the Military Committee of NATO and Royal Netherlands Navy Admiral Rob Bauer.
That means that the Kremlin has almost no reserves to pull from, and it depends on further force generation methods to bolster its size and fill the gaps created by the war.
However, the Russian Ministry of Defense hasn’t been very efficient in recruiting, training, and deploying new troops.
For yet another day, Russian forces are suffering heavy casualties on the ground in Ukraine.
Russian commanders continue to commit troops in mass frontal assaults and against Ukrainian fortifications.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Sunday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 142,860 Russian troops (and wounded approximately twice to thrice that number)
Destroyed equipment includes: 298 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 287 attack and transport helicopters, 3,310 tanks, 2,327 artillery pieces, 6,545 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 469 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,196 vehicles and fuel tanks, 243 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,016 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 224special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 873 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Can these numbers be real? Almost 150K KIA?
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Don’t know for sure how accurate those numbers are but it is plausible they can be real.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
Don’t know for sure how accurate those numbers are
This site tracks equipment losses - but only visually verified losses.
His count of tanks is 1762, of which destroyed: 1038, damaged: 85, abandoned: 91, captured: 548
Aircraft (72, of which destroyed: 65, damaged: 7)
Helicopters (78, of which destroyed: 67, damaged: 10, captured: 1)
Other numbers are similar.
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Putin Halts Nuke Pact With US, Vows to Push War in Ukraine
President Vladimir Putin said Russia will suspend its observation of the New START treaty with the US, dealing a blow to the last accord limiting their nuclear arsenals, as he vowed to press on with his faltering invasion of Ukraine.
Russia is fighting for its “historic lands” in Ukraine and “will fulfill the tasks set step-by-step, carefully and consistently,” Putin told the Russian parliament and top officials in Moscow on Tuesday. Russia won’t be the first to resume testing of nuclear weapons as a result of its suspension of New START, though it will do so in response to any US test, he said.
Russia’s suspension of the treaty is “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Athens. Putin’s decision “makes the world more dangerous” and means the entire infrastructure of arms control has been dismantled, North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels, urging Russia to reconsider.
US President Joe Biden extended the nuclear treaty by five years to 2026 as one of his first acts upon taking office in 2021 shortly before it was due to expire, after Putin had pressed his predecessor Donald Trump without success to agree to a deal.Despite the anticipation, the speech lasting nearly two hours covered mainly Putin’s usual efforts to shift the blame for the conflict to the US and its allies, where he claimed godlessness and pedophilia have become “the norm.” Much of the address also focused on domestic issues, with new benefits offered for veterans and their families, as well as defense workers.
Russia’s suspension of New START means the US could lose access to inspections and monitoring data about the number of deployed Russian nuclear warheads, as well as the land- and sea-based vehicles used to launch them. About 200 inspectors drawn from the Department of Defense, intelligence community and State Department are assigned to carry out verification under the treaty, according to Steven Pifer, the former US ambassador to Ukraine who conducted arms-control negotiations with Russia.
“What the Pentagon values most about the treaty isn’t the numbers, it’s the transparency,” said Pifer, who’s now a fellow at the Brookings Institution. -
Putin Halts Nuke Pact With US, Vows to Push War in Ukraine
President Vladimir Putin said Russia will suspend its observation of the New START treaty with the US, dealing a blow to the last accord limiting their nuclear arsenals, as he vowed to press on with his faltering invasion of Ukraine.
Russia is fighting for its “historic lands” in Ukraine and “will fulfill the tasks set step-by-step, carefully and consistently,” Putin told the Russian parliament and top officials in Moscow on Tuesday. Russia won’t be the first to resume testing of nuclear weapons as a result of its suspension of New START, though it will do so in response to any US test, he said.
Russia’s suspension of the treaty is “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Athens. Putin’s decision “makes the world more dangerous” and means the entire infrastructure of arms control has been dismantled, North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels, urging Russia to reconsider.
US President Joe Biden extended the nuclear treaty by five years to 2026 as one of his first acts upon taking office in 2021 shortly before it was due to expire, after Putin had pressed his predecessor Donald Trump without success to agree to a deal.Despite the anticipation, the speech lasting nearly two hours covered mainly Putin’s usual efforts to shift the blame for the conflict to the US and its allies, where he claimed godlessness and pedophilia have become “the norm.” Much of the address also focused on domestic issues, with new benefits offered for veterans and their families, as well as defense workers.
Russia’s suspension of New START means the US could lose access to inspections and monitoring data about the number of deployed Russian nuclear warheads, as well as the land- and sea-based vehicles used to launch them. About 200 inspectors drawn from the Department of Defense, intelligence community and State Department are assigned to carry out verification under the treaty, according to Steven Pifer, the former US ambassador to Ukraine who conducted arms-control negotiations with Russia.
“What the Pentagon values most about the treaty isn’t the numbers, it’s the transparency,” said Pifer, who’s now a fellow at the Brookings Institution.The treaty itself has already been moribund for some time. Well before last year’s offensive against Ukraine, Russia began obstructing or even refusing verification inspection under the treaty.
Putin is just resorting to his usual bluster and extortion tactics. The fact that his speech focused on domestic issues and avoided altogether an assessment, even falsified, of what is actually happening on the battlefield, indicates he is at least aware that his prestige and authority are more vulnerable now than ever. It boils down to damage control of his desired legacy.
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The treaty itself has already been moribund for some time. Well before last year’s offensive against Ukraine, Russia began obstructing or even refusing verification inspection under the treaty.
Putin is just resorting to his usual bluster and extortion tactics. The fact that his speech focused on domestic issues and avoided altogether an assessment, even falsified, of what is actually happening on the battlefield, indicates he is at least aware that his prestige and authority are more vulnerable now than ever. It boils down to damage control of his desired legacy.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
his speech focused on domestic issues and avoided altogether an assessment, even falsified, of what is actually happening
I read a similar assessment. Other than the usual "always part of Russia," "Nazis," etc bullshit, there was really nothing he said of any substance.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
his speech focused on domestic issues and avoided altogether an assessment, even falsified, of what is actually happening
I read a similar assessment. Other than the usual "always part of Russia," "Nazis," etc bullshit, there was really nothing he said of any substance.
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“There is a large group in power who believe that victory is needed and that is all. At the same time, they can't explain what the victory is, except for reaching Kyiv."
But most government officials and top business executives, according to the government source, are interested in a peace agreement as soon as possible.
"The general mood overall is negative, everyone's tired," he said.
Russians react to Putin’s 2 hour harangue:
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Wonder how much you can learn in five weeks?
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It's specific training on the weaponry they will be using and tactics for them. Like Renauda said, far greater than Russian grunts.
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/21/qa-dr-pavel-felgenhauer-russia-ukraine-war
Some of the comments:
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=Al Jazeera spoke to Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian defence analyst who served as a senior research officer in the Soviet Academy of Sciences.
Al Jazeera: Why do you think an escalation is imminent?
Pavel Felgenhauer: We cannot totally predict everything. But I believe that an escalation right now is imminent. An escalation in the fighting; everyone is talking about a Russian offensive. Western military commanders in Brussels are also talking about how the Ukrainians should go on the offensive.
Al Jazeera: Isn’t Russia faring better than expected? Doesn’t the economy seem to be stable even after strict sanctions?
Felgenhauer: Russia, of course right now, has very serious financial problems with a deficit that’s being financed by printing money. It has problems on the battlefield at the same time.
I don’t see how this can continue in the present pattern for a long time. It’s like football, you never know what’s going to happen actually on the battlefield. There’s a well-known saying that “Russia is never a strong as your fear”, as we see during this year, but “Russia is also never as weak as you hope”. So you can’t just write off Russia. The intensity of the fighting is too high for it to be maintained for long.
Al Jazeera: If it is such a drag, why did Russian President Vladimir Putin go to war?
Felgenhauer: There was a military reason — to prevent Western missiles appearing in Ukraine for a direct strike on Moscow.
There was a geopolitical reason — to reunite the Russian people, assuming that Ukrainians are Russian people, and to defy the West and actually undermine Western unity.
Also, to cause friction within the Western alliance and also establish a new multipolar world.
Al Jazeera: So what went wrong for Russia?
Felgenhauer: The Russian military turned out to be not as strong as not only the West believes, but its own leadership believes. It’s not ready for modern warfare.
The Ukrainians are much better, they were better prepared organisationally and in terms of command and control, in terms of command personnel, and then they got better weapons than the Russians.
The Russian military has been isolated for more than 100 years from world tendencies in war-making. They are still living in the world of tanks, believing that if you mass enough, victory falls into your lap.
Al Jazeera: Do you believe that this conflict will come to its end soon?
Felgenhauer: I believe it will end this year.
They tried talks in March, then meetings in Istanbul, which hinted that they’re moving towards some kind of an agreement. But Russia and Ukraine were miles apart.
Ukraine was more or less ready to agree in February 2022. Now Ukrainians say they want more and Russia also says it wants more. So again, two sides are miles apart.
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Problematic polarization between Russia and Ukraine notwithstanding, it’s a hopeful assessment.
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My concern is what does Putin do if and when his conventional forces are exhausted and no victory in sight.
