Issues with the IHME model.

[George K]

IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.

[jon-nyc]

I think we’ll only see that low a number if there’s significant seasonality in transmission.

[jon-nyc]

@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:

IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.

We'll hit that number in May.

[George K]

@jon-nyc yup.

[Mik]

Models are just that models, based on assumptions that may or may not be correct. And in this case we are flying very, very blind.

[George K]

Updated again. 135K...

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[89th]

Brings it back to the 100-250k range

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in Issues with the IHME model.:

@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:

IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.

We'll hit that number in May.

May 7th, to be exact.

[George K]

@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:

Updated again. 147K...

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[jon-nyc]

I suspect we’ll hit that by the first week of June.

Unless seasonality saves us.