Issues with the IHME model.

[Loki]

No update since April 13. They said they would update on April 15. Curious.

[LuFins Dad]

Please, it's not like the model was so bad that college dropout piano pimps were pointing out flaws... Oh, wait..

[Loki]

IHME has been updated.

[George K]

@Loki said in Issues with the IHME model.:

IHME has been updated.

[Loki]

@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:

@Loki said in Issues with the IHME model.:

IHME has been updated.

Florida should not be ignored just because it is inconvenient politically. Who cares if the GOP was “asleep the wheel” and didn’t apply the social distancing as coronavirus as spreading rapidly.There is real information in a different result that we can learn from.

[George K]

IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.

[jon-nyc]

I think we’ll only see that low a number if there’s significant seasonality in transmission.

[jon-nyc]

@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:

IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.

We'll hit that number in May.

[George K]

@jon-nyc yup.

[Mik]

Models are just that models, based on assumptions that may or may not be correct. And in this case we are flying very, very blind.

[George K]

Updated again. 135K...

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[89th]

Brings it back to the 100-250k range

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in Issues with the IHME model.:

@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:

IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.

We'll hit that number in May.

May 7th, to be exact.

[George K]

@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:

Updated again. 147K...

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[jon-nyc]

I suspect we’ll hit that by the first week of June.

Unless seasonality saves us.