Issues with the IHME model.
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wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 16:00 last edited by
Yet look at NY vs Italy cases on a log scale. We're going to peak in 2 days and they haven't peaked yet?
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wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 16:01 last edited by
wow. that is not looking good. Seattle looks like they are improving though so there is that,
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wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 16:23 last edited by
Cuomo just announced that new hospitalizations are down in the state.
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wrote on 6 Apr 2020, 17:36 last edited by
8 weeks ago I predicted that at the end of this, those that were very concerned about this would be saying I told you so. I also predicted that those that said this isn’t that bad and we’re overreacting would be able to say the same. I stand by those predictions.
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wrote on 14 Apr 2020, 21:32 last edited by
https://www.sydney.edu.au/data-science/
n international group of statisticians from CTDS, Northwestern University and the University of Texas have released a paper (pdf, 2.5MB) investigating the predictive performance of the model developed by Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The IHME model is is used to predict ventilator use, hospital bed requirements and other resourcing for US states response to COVID-19.
The key findings are:
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Over 70 percent of US states had death rates that were inconsistent with IHME predictions
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Ability of IHME model to make accurate predictions decreases with increasing amount of data
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Improved predictive modelling needed for adequate provision of ventilators, PPE, medical staff at a local level
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wrote on 17 Apr 2020, 17:20 last edited by George K
A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”
“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, home to several of the researchers who created the model, and who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”
The IHME projections were used by the Trump administration in developing national guidelines to mitigate the outbreak. Now, they are reportedly influencing White House thinking on how and when to “re-open” the country, as President Trump announced a blueprint for on Thursday.
The chief reason the IHME projections worry some experts, Etzioni said, is that “the fact that they overshot” — initially projecting up to 240,000 U.S. deaths, compared with fewer than 70,000 now — “will be used to suggest that the government response prevented an even greater catastrophe, when in fact the predictions were shaky in the first place.”
That could produce misplaced confidence in the effectiveness of the social distancing policies, which in turn could produce complacency about what might be needed to keep the epidemic from blowing up again.
Believing, for instance, that measures well short of what China imposed in and around Wuhan prevented a four-fold higher death toll could be disastrous.
The most notable bounces in the IHME projections have been for the eventual total of U.S. deaths by early August, which is when many epidemiologists believe the outbreak will be tailing off. (Many expect daily deaths in the U.S. to fall to 10 or fewer by early June, from 2,000 or so in April.) Death projections for individual states have also fluctuated significantly.
More interesting stuff later in the article.
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A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. In particular, they warn against relying on it as the basis for government decision-making, including on “re-opening America.”
“It’s not a model that most of us in the infectious disease epidemiology field think is well suited” to projecting Covid-19 deaths, epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health told reporters this week, referring to projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, home to several of the researchers who created the model, and who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”
The IHME projections were used by the Trump administration in developing national guidelines to mitigate the outbreak. Now, they are reportedly influencing White House thinking on how and when to “re-open” the country, as President Trump announced a blueprint for on Thursday.
The chief reason the IHME projections worry some experts, Etzioni said, is that “the fact that they overshot” — initially projecting up to 240,000 U.S. deaths, compared with fewer than 70,000 now — “will be used to suggest that the government response prevented an even greater catastrophe, when in fact the predictions were shaky in the first place.”
That could produce misplaced confidence in the effectiveness of the social distancing policies, which in turn could produce complacency about what might be needed to keep the epidemic from blowing up again.
Believing, for instance, that measures well short of what China imposed in and around Wuhan prevented a four-fold higher death toll could be disastrous.
The most notable bounces in the IHME projections have been for the eventual total of U.S. deaths by early August, which is when many epidemiologists believe the outbreak will be tailing off. (Many expect daily deaths in the U.S. to fall to 10 or fewer by early June, from 2,000 or so in April.) Death projections for individual states have also fluctuated significantly.
More interesting stuff later in the article.
wrote on 17 Apr 2020, 18:10 last edited byNo update since April 13. They said they would update on April 15. Curious.
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wrote on 17 Apr 2020, 18:14 last edited by
Please, it's not like the model was so bad that college dropout piano pimps were pointing out flaws... Oh, wait..
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wrote on 17 Apr 2020, 23:14 last edited by
IHME has been updated.
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wrote on 18 Apr 2020, 16:32 last edited by
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wrote on 18 Apr 2020, 16:36 last edited by
@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:
@Loki said in Issues with the IHME model.:
IHME has been updated.
Florida should not be ignored just because it is inconvenient politically. Who cares if the GOP was “asleep the wheel” and didn’t apply the social distancing as coronavirus as spreading rapidly.There is real information in a different result that we can learn from.
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wrote on 28 Apr 2020, 12:38 last edited by
IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.
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wrote on 28 Apr 2020, 12:44 last edited by
I think we’ll only see that low a number if there’s significant seasonality in transmission.
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wrote on 29 Apr 2020, 21:59 last edited by
@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:
IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.
We'll hit that number in May.
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@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:
IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.
We'll hit that number in May.
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wrote on 30 Apr 2020, 00:05 last edited by
Models are just that models, based on assumptions that may or may not be correct. And in this case we are flying very, very blind.
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wrote on 6 May 2020, 01:01 last edited by
Updated again. 135K...
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wrote on 6 May 2020, 01:07 last edited by
Brings it back to the 100-250k range
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@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:
IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.
We'll hit that number in May.
wrote on 7 May 2020, 22:46 last edited by@jon-nyc said in Issues with the IHME model.:
@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:
IHME is now predicting 74K deaths by Aug 4.
We'll hit that number in May.
May 7th, to be exact.
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Updated again. 135K...
wrote on 12 May 2020, 23:36 last edited by@George-K said in Issues with the IHME model.:
Updated again. 147K...
