US has a shitload of cases

Aqua Letifer · 8 89th 17 Apr 2020, 01:14

@89th I think slightly more people will continue to get infected per day than we have recoveries per day. Would be great to be wrong about that.

89th · wrote on 17 Apr 2020, 01:35

I see, sorry I haven't been following the stats as closely. I was referring to the growth factor of "new cases today < new cases yesterday", irregardless (kidding, regardless) of recoveries.

jon-nyc · 18 Apr 2020, 22:28

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

209,071 14% increase. Deaths 4633 up 25%
238,820, 14% increase. Deaths 5758, up 24%."
331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%

692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase. I'm thinking yesterday's number was wrong???

jon-nyc · 19 Apr 2020, 22:17

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

331,234, 11.5% daily* increase. Deaths 9458, 18% daily* increase.
364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.

726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

At what point does a flat % increase go from being mildly encouraging to mildly concerning?

LuFins Dad · wrote on 18 Apr 2020, 23:37

I’m not terribly surprised. I think my community is better than most, and I still am surprised at how cavalier some people are.

I commented to Aqua the other day that my biggest concern was a long drawn out stretch at 5%.

jon-nyc · 21 Apr 2020, 22:28

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

364,723, 10% increase. Deaths 10,689, 13% increase.
386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%

755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%

jon-nyc · 22 Apr 2020, 22:28

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

386,817, 6% increase. Deaths 12,285 15% increase.
423,135 9% increase. Deaths 14,390 17% increase.
454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%

820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%

jon-nyc · 24 Apr 2020, 22:18

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%

846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%

89th · wrote on 23 Apr 2020, 00:38

Slowly getting slower....... I stand by my May 1st date for passing 1,000,000. Might arrive a tad earlier, though.

jon-nyc · wrote on 23 Apr 2020, 00:48

Yeah I think it will

Axtremus · wrote on 23 Apr 2020, 02:17

The slowing rate of growth with regards to infection count ... how much of it is real and how much of it is due to testing capacity not growing fast enough to keep up with the growth in infection count?

jon-nyc · 26 Apr 2020, 21:50

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

454,305 7.3% increase. Deaths 16,267 13% increase.
550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%
846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%

890,524, 2.5% increase. Deaths 51,017 up up 4.7%.

jon-nyc · 28 Apr 2020, 22:24

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

550,016 6.6% daily increase. Deaths 21,994 10.6% daily increase.
577,307 5% increase. Deaths 23,219 up 5.6%
632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%
846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%
890,524, 2.5% increase. Deaths 51,017 up up 4.7%.

963,168 4% increase. Deaths 54,530 up 3.4%.

89, I think unfortunately your 1MM by may 1 will come true. That's less than 1% a day.

We'll probably hit it Tuesday if not tomorrow.

89th · wrote on 27 Apr 2020, 00:36

I'd imagine we'll see it all over the media once we cross that number. I still remember when we had less than 2,000 cases and I made the "we'll have a million cases by may" comment to my coworker who was completely shocked by such a claim.

89th · wrote on 28 Apr 2020, 22:05

Passed 1,000,000 today

jon-nyc · 29 Apr 2020, 21:58

Yes we did.

@jon-nyc said in US has a shitload of cases:

632,878 4.7% daily increase. Deaths 27,850 9.5% daily increase.
658,263 4% increase. Deaths 32,186 up 15.6%
692,169 5.2% increase. Deaths 32,232 up 0.14% increase.
726,645 5% increase. Deaths 37,938 up 17.7%
755,533 4% increase. Deaths 40,461 up 6.7%
820,104. 4.2% increase. Deaths 44,228 up 4.6%
846,982 3.3% increase. Deaths 46,560 up 5.3%
890,524, 2.5% increase. Deaths 51,017 up up 4.7%.
963,168 4% increase. Deaths 54,530 up 3.4%.

1,010,717. 2.4% increase. Deaths 58,365 up 3.5%

Aqua Letifer · 29 Apr 2020, 19:00

We lost more people to COVID-19 in the past 3 months than we did soldiers during the entire Vietnam War.

WWII I believe is the next benchmark. I think we have a very decent chance of meeting it.

Horace · 29 Apr 2020, 21:12

I listened to a presentation recently from an academic/scientist who wants everybody to take the virus way more seriously. He used the comparison with war deaths first as an appeal to our humanity, and then took it further to try to appeal to the "but the economy!" folk by assuming that the economic damage of war deaths is the same as the economic damage of virus deaths, on a death for death basis, and projecting economic numbers based on that. This was a very smart guy and I think there is zero chance he doesn't know the difference, economically or otherwise, between a soldier getting cut down in his 20s and an older person with co-morbidities dying of a virus. But he never mentioned that difference.

mark · wrote on 29 Apr 2020, 19:00

@Aqua-Letifer said in US has a shitload of cases:

We lost more people to COVID-19 in the past 3 months than we did soldiers during the entire Vietnam War.

WWII I believe is the next benchmark. I think we have a very decent chance of meeting it.

Klaus · wrote on 29 Apr 2020, 19:04

@Aqua-Letifer said in US has a shitload of cases:

We lost more people to COVID-19 in the past 3 months than we did soldiers during the entire Vietnam War.

WWII I believe is the next benchmark. I think we have a very decent chance of meeting it.

Hm, let's see. We lost 6,000 to COVID-19. Casualties due to WW2: 6,000,000. Factor of 1,000.

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US has a shitload of cases