NYC is ground zero

[jon-nyc]

I read it, and I get it. But ‘social distancing’ isn’t a binary metric set either to 1 or 0.

Schools closed? Check. Universities? Check. Concerts canceled? Check. Sporting events canceled? Check. Etc. etc.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

Same thing that happened everywhere else. the virus turned 40 days old, got bored, and slowed down Social distancing has its intended effect.

But Florida was much later in instituting social distancing measures, both privately and by government mandate. So was South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. All were roundly criticized for not taking action earlier, yet all have been showing significant declines in viral growth well before they should. In fact, except for South Dakota, they are all at the same ~5% rate of increase as those states that locked down hard and early. We shouldn’t see them at these numbers for another 2 weeks, but here they are.

[jon-nyc]

I don't know, we'd have to look in detail at each state to see when they formally closed things and when things started effectively closing from the bottom up.

I think besides the famous outliers like GA, if you look back there wasn't a huge difference in when states closed a lot of things. The vast majority of states closed schools the week of March 16-20, for example, including all the ones you mention.

But it would require some real analysis to look into it. And real data.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 118,302 - up 5.2% daily
NJ - 71,030
MA - 29,852
MI - 28,059
PA - 26,753
Nassau - 26,715
CA - 26,666
Suffolk - 23,278
IL - 23,248
FL - 22,511
LA - 21,951
Westchester - 20,947 up 3%
Cook - 16,323
Texas 15,687

NYC - 123,146 up 4%
NJ - 75,312
MA - 32,181
PA - 28,258
Nassau - 27,772
CA - 27,618
IL - 25,734 - up 10.7%
Suffolk - 24,812
FL - 22,897
MI - 22,651 - wait this is bad data? 5k less than yesterday. Not sure what's up.
LA - 22,532
Westchester - 21,828 - up 4.2%
Cook - 18,087 - up 10.8%
TX - 16,553

So IL and Cook county are the only entities up more than 10%

(for those who don't know, Cook County is where Chicago is)

[jon-nyc]

I don’t like this. Just eyeballing this it seems N.Y. is still pretty testing constrained. Lite new case days are invariably lite testing days.

Yesterday was our record test day and record new cases.

The curve is bending, but (again eyeballing) it looks like with consistent testing we’d see slow growth in new cases.

[Aqua Letifer]

My BIL is being held in a hospital in NY right now. One doc is pretty convinced he has it, another isn't.

They're keeping him there, but he can't get a test.

[Jolly]

@Aqua-Letifer said in NYC is ground zero:

My BIL is being held in a hospital in NY right now. One doc is pretty convinced he has it, another isn't.

They're keeping him there, but he can't get a test.

Here's hoping he doesn't have it.

[brenda]

@Aqua-Letifer said in NYC is ground zero:

My BIL is being held in a hospital in NY right now. One doc is pretty convinced he has it, another isn't.

They're keeping him there, but he can't get a test.

How serious are his current symptoms? Must be enough to make him seek medical help. Best wishes to him, and let's hope he's not positive.

[Aqua Letifer]

@brenda said in NYC is ground zero:

@Aqua-Letifer said in NYC is ground zero:

My BIL is being held in a hospital in NY right now. One doc is pretty convinced he has it, another isn't.

They're keeping him there, but he can't get a test.

How serious are his current symptoms? Must be enough to make him seek medical help. Best wishes to him, and let's hope he's not positive.

His symptoms aren't too bad; kinda feverish, that's about it. My biggest worry is his wife, who has health issues, and his 1-year-old at home. I just don't know if they understand the severity of this, and what can happen if they get infected. They're kind of acting like business as usual, which is troubling.

Anyway, no updates yet; we'll see what happens.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 123,146 up 4%
NJ - 75,312
MA - 32,181
PA - 28,258
Nassau - 27,772
CA - 27,618
IL - 25,734 - up 10.7%
Suffolk - 24,812
FL - 22,897
MI - 22,651 - wait this is bad data? 5k less than yesterday. Not sure what's up.
LA - 22,532
Westchester - 21,828 - up 4.2%
Cook - 18,087 - up 10.8%
TX - 16,553

NYC - 123,146 - dafuq that's the same # as yesterday
NJ - 78,467
MA - 34,402
MI - 30,023 - bad data yesterday.
PA - 29,888
CA - 28,888
Nassau - 27,772 same # as yesterday
IL - 27,578
Suffolk - 24,812 same # as yesterday
FL - 24,759
LA - 23,118
Westchester - same # as yesterday
Cook - 19,391
TX - 17,803

Weird, NYS not updated.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYC - 123,146 - dafuq that's the same # as yesterday
NJ - 78,467
MA - 34,402
MI - 30,023 - bad data yesterday.
PA - 29,888
CA - 28,888
Nassau - 27,772 same # as yesterday
IL - 27,578
Suffolk - 24,812 same # as yesterday
FL - 24,759
LA - 23,118
Westchester - 21,828 same # as yesterday
Cook - 19,391
TX - 17,803

Weird, NYS not updated.

NYS - 239,306
NYC - 135,572 4.9% daily
NJ - 81,420
MA - 36,399
PA - 31,652
MI - 30,791
CA - 29,890
IL - 29,160
Nassau - 28,539
Suffolk - 25,497
FL - 25,277
LA - 23,580
Westchester - 22,476 - 1.5% daily
Cook - 20,395
TX - 18,317

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 239,306
NYC - 135,572 4.9% daily
NJ - 81,420
MA - 36,399
PA - 31,652
MI - 30,791
CA - 29,890
IL - 29,160
Nassau - 28,539
Suffolk - 25,497
FL - 25,277
LA - 23,580
Westchester - 22,476 - 1.5% daily
Cook - 20,395
TX - 18,317

NYS - 247,698
NYC - 138,700 - 2.3% - lowest since this started
NJ - 85,301
MA - 38,077
PA - 32,809
MI - 31,053
CA - 30,983
IL - 30,357
Nassau - 30,013 - up 5.16%
Suffolk -- 26,888
FL - 25,996
LA - 23,928
Westchester - 23,803 up 5.9%
Cook - 21,272
TX - 18,984

Everything not noted is under 5% growth. Encouraging.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 247,698
NYC - 138,700 - 2.3% - lowest since this started
NJ - 85,301
MA - 38,077
PA - 32,809
MI - 31,053
CA - 30,983
IL - 30,357
Nassau - 30,013 - up 5.16%
Suffolk -- 26,888
FL - 25,996
LA - 23,928
Westchester - 23,803 up 5.9%
Cook - 21,272
TX - 18,984

Everything not noted is under 5% growth. Encouraging.

NYS - 258,361
NYC - 144,190 - up 2.0%
NJ - 89,900
MA - 41,199
CA - 35,465
PA - 35,225
IL - 33,059
MI - 32,667
Nassau - 31,079
Suffolk - 28,701
FL - 27,495
LA - 24,854
Westchester - 24,656 up 1.8%
Cook - 23,181
CT - 20,360

Everything under 5% daily growth rate.

Cook county gaining on Westchester, might overtake us.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 258,361
NYC - 144,190 - up 2.0%
NJ - 89,900
MA - 41,199
CA - 35,465
PA - 35,225
IL - 33,059
MI - 32,667
Nassau - 31,079
Suffolk - 28,701
FL - 27,495
LA - 24,854
Westchester - 24,656 up 1.8%
Cook - 23,181
CT - 20,360

NYS - 263,292
NYC - 147,297 - 2.2%
NJ - 95,418 - up 6.1%
MA - 41,199 - not updated
CA - 37,287 - up 5.1%
PA - 36,082
IL - 35,114 - up 6.2%
MI - 33,686
Nassau -31,555
Suffolk - 28,854
FL - 28,309
Westchester - 25,276 up 2.5%
LA - 25,258
Cook - 24,546 - up 5.9%
CT - 22,469 - up 10.3%

Wow. Yesterday nothing had grown more than 5%, today quite a few have.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 263,292
NYC - 147,297 - 2.2%
NJ - 95,418 - up 6.1%
MA - 41,199 - not updated
CA - 37,287 - up 5.1%
PA - 36,082
IL - 35,114 - up 6.2%
MI - 33,686
Nassau -31,555
Suffolk - 28,854
FL - 28,309
Westchester - 25,276 up 2.5%
LA - 25,258
Cook - 24,546 - up 5.9%
CT - 22,469 - up 10.3%

NYS - 271,590
NYC - 150,473 - 1% increase
NJ - 100.025
MA - 46,023
CA - 39,719
IL - 39,654
PA - 39,409
MI - 36,255
Nassau - 32,765
Suffok - 30,606
FL - 30,174
Cook - 27,616 - up 5.9%
Westchester - 26,633 - up 4.2
LA - 26,140
CT - 23,936

Only Cook county has 5% or more daily increase.

Also note Cook county has surpassed Westchester in number of cases (though cook county population is over 5 million, Westchester only ~900k)

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 271,590
NYC - 150,473 - 1% increase
NJ - 100.025
MA - 46,023
CA - 39,719
IL - 39,654
PA - 39,409
MI - 36,255
Nassau - 32,765
Suffok - 30,606
FL - 30,174
Cook - 27,616 - up 5.9%
Westchester - 26,633 - up 4.2
LA - 26,140
CT - 23,936

NYS - 288,045
NYC - 158,258 2,6% increase
NJ - 109,038
MA - 54,938 - up 9.2%
IL - 43,903 - up 5.2%
CA - 42,952
PA - 42,616
MI - 37,588
Nassau - 34,522
Suffolk - 32,059
FL - 31,532
Cook - 30,574 - up 5.2%
Westchester - 27,644 up 1.9%
LA - 26,773
CT - 24,750

MA up a lot.

IL passed California. Everything not listed is less than a 5% gain.

[jon-nyc]

@jon-nyc said in NYC is ground zero:

NYS - 288,045
NYC - 158,258 2,6% increase
NJ - 109,038
MA - 54,938 - up 9.2%
IL - 43,903 - up 5.2%
CA - 42,952
PA - 42,616
MI - 37,588
Nassau - 34,522
Suffolk - 32,059
FL - 31,532
Cook - 30,574 - up 5.2%
Westchester - 27,644 up 1.9%
LA - 26,773
CT - 24,750

NYS - 295,106
NYC - 162,338 up 1.3%
NJ - 113,856
MA - 58,302 - up 3%
IL - 48,102 - up 4.7%
CA - 46,033 - up 3.5%
PA - 45,137
MI - 39,262
Nassau - 35,085
Cook - 33,449 - up 4.6%
FL - 32,848
Suffolk - 32,724
Westchester - 28,245 up 1.1%
LA - 27,286
CT - 26,312 - up 3.1%

IL is a hot spot (relatively). Cook county overtook Suffolk county and the state of Florida. Florida took over Suffolk. Everything not listed grew by less than 3%

[Mik]

Yep. Just open the barn doors. What could go wrong?

[LuFins Dad]

About PA and about numbers without context.

[LuFins Dad]

@LuFins-Dad said in NYC is ground zero:

About PA and about numbers without context.

Still can’t figure out pictures.