The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
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Big mistake if we even consider a ground game. Sure assassinate their leaders, and bomb the crap out of their revolutionary guard and missile sites, all opinions about that aside, you could leave the operation relatively quickly and see how the Persian dust settles?
My guess of what will happen? The story in a few years will be written like this:
Following Khamenei’s death in 2026, Iran descended into a prolonged, violent power struggle, transforming from a centralized state into a fractured country with rival governments, armed militias, and deep instability. A decade of civil war ensued, characterized by foreign intervention, economic collapse, and a humanitarian crisis, leaving it split between eastern and western factions.
Political Division: The country is divided between the UN-supported government and forces loyal to Khamenei's people, specifically their revolutionary guard. Attempts to form a unified government have largely failed to end the conflict.
Failed State Conditions: Iran has experienced severe instability, with armed militias controlling various regions, leading to a rise in human trafficking, unlawful detention, and, for a period, control by extremist groups like ISIS.
Economic Collapse: Despite having the largest oil reserves in Asia, Iran’s oil production has been frequently halted by blockades, causing extreme economic damage and infrastructure failure.
Humanitarian Crisis: The chaos has led to the displacement of citizens, a lack of basic services, and, in some cases, the discovery of mass graves.
While open conflict has reduced in recent years, the nation remains fragile, with a stalled political process and ongoing struggles over control of resources, particularly oil, in the eastern "oil crescent".
@89th said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
My guess of what will happen? The story in a few years will be written like this:
Probably correct. In addition to Libya, maybe Iraq is a bit like that also.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39w2nj1rk8o
One of the UK's two aircraft carriers has been placed on advanced readiness to sail from Portsmouth, the BBC understands.
The crew of HMS Prince of Wales have been told they must be ready to leave in five days, defence sources said.
This may raise speculation the carrier could be deployed to the Mediterranean to help defend British interests threatened during the conflict in the Middle East.
Before this, the ship's "notice to sail" was 14 days.
Meanwhile, more US B-1 Lancer bombers have arrived at RAF Fairford. -
Interesting "video" of boat traffic in the area right before the start of the war, and basically, how it crashed down to almost nothing after fighting started.
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One thing concerns me greatly. Not hearing reports of social unrest in the streets, nothing that resembles an uprising. Seems like we’d be hearing about it if it were occurring.
"You cannot subsidize irresponsibility and expect people to become more responsible." — Thomas Sowell
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One thing concerns me greatly. Not hearing reports of social unrest in the streets, nothing that resembles an uprising. Seems like we’d be hearing about it if it were occurring.
@Mik said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
One thing concerns me greatly. Not hearing reports of social unrest in the streets, nothing that resembles an uprising. Seems like we’d be hearing about it if it were occurring.
I'm unconvinced that being bombed makes people hate their government more than the people dropping the bombs. History would indicate that if anything it seems to make people more patriotic.
But what do I know? Trump and Hegseth are the experts, after all. And such experts!
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One thing concerns me greatly. Not hearing reports of social unrest in the streets, nothing that resembles an uprising. Seems like we’d be hearing about it if it were occurring.
@Mik said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
One thing concerns me greatly. Not hearing reports of social unrest in the streets, nothing that resembles an uprising. Seems like we’d be hearing about it if it were occurring.
Despite the bombs and fully functioning domestic political repression apparatus still firmly in place, people continue to manage and feed their families. When the food becomes scarce and children start going hungry, the masses will take to the streets. That is the way virtually of all revolutions.
