The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
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Saw this over coffee. Rubio predicted how this would go in 2015.
Link to videoText: >Resurfaced 2015 Footage Shows Sec. Marco Rubio Predicted the Iran Crisis 11 Years Ago
History is the ultimate judge. A chilling video from 2015 is going viral today, proving that then-Senator Marco Rubio saw exactly where the world was headed. Long before the current escalation, Rubio stood on the Senate floor and issued a prophetic warning about the catastrophic consequences of the Iran Nuclear Deal—a warning that has now become our daily reality.
Rubio warned that sanctions relief would be immediately funneled into conventional military buildup. He predicted Iran would use that cash to swarm our naval assets with "swift boats" and build rockets specifically designed to target American aircraft carriers.
Then-Senator Marco Rubio: "Much of the details of this deal have already been said. I do want to be recorded for history’s purposes before I know what is going to happen in regards to this if it goes through. Iran will immediately use the money that it's receiving in sanctions relief to begin to build up its conventional capabilities. It will establish the most dominant military power in the region outside of the United States and it will raise the price of us operating in the region. They're going to build anti-access capabilities, rockets capable of destroying our aircraft carriers and ships. They'll continue to build these swift boats that are able to come on us, these fast boats that are able to swarm our naval assets, and they'll make it harder and harder for U.S. troops to be in the region.
They'll also work with other terrorist groups in the region to target American servicemen and women, and they may or may not deny that they're involved. But they will target us, and raise the price of our presence in the Middle East, until they hope to completely pull us out of that region. They'll also continue to build long-range missiles, missiles capable of reaching the United States. Those are not affected by this deal, and they'll continue to build them as they've been doing. And then at some point in the near future, when the time is right, they will build a nuclear weapon. And they will do so because at that point they will know that they have become immune, that we will no longer be able to strike their nuclear program because the price of doing so will be too high.
This is not just the work of imagination, it exists in the world today. It's called North Korea, where a lunatic possesses dozens of nuclear weapons and a long-range rocket that can already reach the United States. And we cannot do anything about it. An attack on North Korea today would result in an attack on Tokyo or Seoul or Guam or Hawaii or California. And so the world must now live with a lunatic in possession of nuclear weapons. And this is the goal Iran has as well, to reach a point where they become immune to any sort of credible military threat, because the price of a military strike would be too high. And then they become an established nuclear weapons power. And never in the history of the world has such a regime ever possessed weapons so capable of destruction.
Iran is led by a supreme leader who is a radical Shia cleric with an apocalyptic vision of the future. He is not a traditional geopolitical actor who makes decisions on the basis of borders or simply history or because of ambitions. He has a religious, apocalyptic vision of the future. One that calls for triggering a conflict between the non-Muslim world and the Muslim world, one that he feels especially obligated to trigger. And he's going to possess nuclear weapons. This is the world that we are on the verge of leaving our children to inherit, and perhaps we ourselves will have to share in it.
And so I want to be recorded for history’s purposes, if nothing else, to say that those of us who opposed this deal understood where it would lead. And we are making a terrible mistake. And I fear that if passage of this deal will make it even harder for us to prevent it. And I hope that there is still time to change our minds. But here's the good news: Iran may have a supreme leader, but America does not. In this nation, we have a republic, and soon we will have new leaders, perhaps in this chamber, but also in the executive branch. And I pray that on their first day in office they will reverse this deal and reimpose the sanctions and back them up with a credible threat of military force, or history will condemn us for not doing what needed to be done at this critical moment in the world's history. I yield the floor."
Watch his full speech with link in comments -
I heard Ken Pollack on a podcast the other day. He was against the deal back in 2015 like all the neoconservatives but was also against Trump ending it in 2018. It sounds weird at first but as he explained it his logic seemed reasonable. The deal gave the majority of Iran’s benefits ($$$) up front whereas our benefits (limits on enrichment, inspection regime) unfolded over time. So to end the deal early meant they got most of their benefit and we got very little of ours.
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@Mik said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
One thing is really interesting to me, and that is the difference in military effectiveness of the US in Iran versus Russia in Ukraine. They're quite backward. Aside from missiles and drones it is still WWII style warfare.
The first few months of the Russo-Ukraine war resembled WWII a war in of manoeuvre. Since then it has been more like WWI trench warfare characterized by artillery barrages and occasional infantry advances against fortified defensive positions that result in very limited territorial gains and heavy casualties on the battlefield.
The only real manoeuvres appear to be in the sky with the attack drones and missiles.
said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
@Mik said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
One thing is really interesting to me, and that is the difference in military effectiveness of the US in Iran versus Russia in Ukraine. They're quite backward. Aside from missiles and drones it is still WWII style warfare.
The first few months of the Russo-Ukraine war resembled WWII a war in of manoeuvre. Since then it has been more like WWI trench warfare characterized by artillery barrages and occasional infantry advances against fortified defensive positions that result in very limited territorial gains and heavy casualties on the battlefield.
The only real manoeuvres appear to be in the sky with the attack drones and missiles.
Well not so fast now….
Ukraine has deployed infantry robots to counter the Orcs and bring a new dimension of manoeuvre to what has become a war of attrition:
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Big mistake if we even consider a ground game. Sure assassinate their leaders, and bomb the crap out of their revolutionary guard and missile sites, all opinions about that aside, you could leave the operation relatively quickly and see how the Persian dust settles?
My guess of what will happen? The story in a few years will be written like this:
Following Khamenei’s death in 2026, Iran descended into a prolonged, violent power struggle, transforming from a centralized state into a fractured country with rival governments, armed militias, and deep instability. A decade of civil war ensued, characterized by foreign intervention, economic collapse, and a humanitarian crisis, leaving it split between eastern and western factions.
Political Division: The country is divided between the UN-supported government and forces loyal to Khamenei's people, specifically their revolutionary guard. Attempts to form a unified government have largely failed to end the conflict.
Failed State Conditions: Iran has experienced severe instability, with armed militias controlling various regions, leading to a rise in human trafficking, unlawful detention, and, for a period, control by extremist groups like ISIS.
Economic Collapse: Despite having the largest oil reserves in Asia, Iran’s oil production has been frequently halted by blockades, causing extreme economic damage and infrastructure failure.
Humanitarian Crisis: The chaos has led to the displacement of citizens, a lack of basic services, and, in some cases, the discovery of mass graves.
While open conflict has reduced in recent years, the nation remains fragile, with a stalled political process and ongoing struggles over control of resources, particularly oil, in the eastern "oil crescent".
@89th said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
My guess of what will happen? The story in a few years will be written like this:
Probably correct. In addition to Libya, maybe Iraq is a bit like that also.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39w2nj1rk8o
One of the UK's two aircraft carriers has been placed on advanced readiness to sail from Portsmouth, the BBC understands.
The crew of HMS Prince of Wales have been told they must be ready to leave in five days, defence sources said.
This may raise speculation the carrier could be deployed to the Mediterranean to help defend British interests threatened during the conflict in the Middle East.
Before this, the ship's "notice to sail" was 14 days.
Meanwhile, more US B-1 Lancer bombers have arrived at RAF Fairford. -
Interesting "video" of boat traffic in the area right before the start of the war, and basically, how it crashed down to almost nothing after fighting started.
