The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread
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I heard Ken Pollack on a podcast the other day. He was against the deal back in 2015 like all the neoconservatives but was also against Trump ending it in 2018. It sounds weird at first but as he explained it his logic seemed reasonable. The deal gave the majority of Iran’s benefits ($$$) up front whereas our benefits (limits on enrichment, inspection regime) unfolded over time. So to end the deal early meant they got most of their benefit and we got very little of ours.
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@Mik said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
One thing is really interesting to me, and that is the difference in military effectiveness of the US in Iran versus Russia in Ukraine. They're quite backward. Aside from missiles and drones it is still WWII style warfare.
The first few months of the Russo-Ukraine war resembled WWII a war in of manoeuvre. Since then it has been more like WWI trench warfare characterized by artillery barrages and occasional infantry advances against fortified defensive positions that result in very limited territorial gains and heavy casualties on the battlefield.
The only real manoeuvres appear to be in the sky with the attack drones and missiles.
said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
@Mik said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
One thing is really interesting to me, and that is the difference in military effectiveness of the US in Iran versus Russia in Ukraine. They're quite backward. Aside from missiles and drones it is still WWII style warfare.
The first few months of the Russo-Ukraine war resembled WWII a war in of manoeuvre. Since then it has been more like WWI trench warfare characterized by artillery barrages and occasional infantry advances against fortified defensive positions that result in very limited territorial gains and heavy casualties on the battlefield.
The only real manoeuvres appear to be in the sky with the attack drones and missiles.
Well not so fast now….
Ukraine has deployed infantry robots to counter the Orcs and bring a new dimension of manoeuvre to what has become a war of attrition:
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Big mistake if we even consider a ground game. Sure assassinate their leaders, and bomb the crap out of their revolutionary guard and missile sites, all opinions about that aside, you could leave the operation relatively quickly and see how the Persian dust settles?
My guess of what will happen? The story in a few years will be written like this:
Following Khamenei’s death in 2026, Iran descended into a prolonged, violent power struggle, transforming from a centralized state into a fractured country with rival governments, armed militias, and deep instability. A decade of civil war ensued, characterized by foreign intervention, economic collapse, and a humanitarian crisis, leaving it split between eastern and western factions.
Political Division: The country is divided between the UN-supported government and forces loyal to Khamenei's people, specifically their revolutionary guard. Attempts to form a unified government have largely failed to end the conflict.
Failed State Conditions: Iran has experienced severe instability, with armed militias controlling various regions, leading to a rise in human trafficking, unlawful detention, and, for a period, control by extremist groups like ISIS.
Economic Collapse: Despite having the largest oil reserves in Asia, Iran’s oil production has been frequently halted by blockades, causing extreme economic damage and infrastructure failure.
Humanitarian Crisis: The chaos has led to the displacement of citizens, a lack of basic services, and, in some cases, the discovery of mass graves.
While open conflict has reduced in recent years, the nation remains fragile, with a stalled political process and ongoing struggles over control of resources, particularly oil, in the eastern "oil crescent".
@89th said in The Iran War (was Nuclear Program) thread:
My guess of what will happen? The story in a few years will be written like this:
Probably correct. In addition to Libya, maybe Iraq is a bit like that also.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39w2nj1rk8o
One of the UK's two aircraft carriers has been placed on advanced readiness to sail from Portsmouth, the BBC understands.
The crew of HMS Prince of Wales have been told they must be ready to leave in five days, defence sources said.
This may raise speculation the carrier could be deployed to the Mediterranean to help defend British interests threatened during the conflict in the Middle East.
Before this, the ship's "notice to sail" was 14 days.
Meanwhile, more US B-1 Lancer bombers have arrived at RAF Fairford. -
Interesting "video" of boat traffic in the area right before the start of the war, and basically, how it crashed down to almost nothing after fighting started.
