Trumpenomics
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Currency devaluation/inflation … we print (a lot more) money to pay off the debt. May or may not lead to “Dollar security falters” and/or “worldwide economic depression.”
Gotta compare with the alternatives. Cutting spending too much or increasing taxes too much may also lead to some versions and degrees of “Dollar security falters” and/or “worldwide economic depression.” There may be some versions of “printing money” that are less damaging than some versions of “cutting spending” or “increasing taxes.”
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I have but a simple brain, but an alternative would be to pass a 20-year spending plan that decreases spending on non-essentials, increases taxes for all, with a clear goal of what the "finish line" looks like, and once reached, an immutable law that spending must not result in XYZ debt unless 2/3 of the house and senate approve a wartime approval or some shit like that. In other words, a painful get healthy plan with strict fiscal guardrails in place.
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@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Kalshi, the betting market for which Don Jr is an ‘advisor’, is now predicting close to 50T of debt by the time Trump is finished.
I mean, on its own, that looks pretty fucking horrible, but by itself it doesn’t tell anywhere near the whole story. What would the alternatives look like? What happens if they allowed the TCJA cuts to expire? What does it look like if we cut spending even a moderate amount? The debt service and the entitlement programs would still push us to that point anyway, whether it’s 1-2 years earlier or later.
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So why aren’t we talking about the Jobs Report? https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/american-born-employment-reaches-record-high-as-foreign-born-jobs-continue-to-decline
A record number of jobs for American born workers and a significant drop in foreign born jobs.
Wages are up 3.7% over last year contrasted with 2.4% inflation, so that’s real wage growth.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
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@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Real wages have been growing since 2022. Though they’re down in q1 from 4q2024.
And it was fantastic for the illegals…
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Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper. I think we have maybe 5% of the world’s supply, Chile has like 30%.
Besides needlessly making construction and power generation more expensive, we’ve seen in the past when copper prices rise, so does crime as people steal/destroy things with high copper content to sell them.
Nice going, Trump.
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Yamaha price increase announced for August 1… But that’s been a fairly typical timeframe. I don’t mind saying the increase is above inflation…
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One funny thing though, they always come up with pithy names for various bear market episodes when they refer to them or compare them across time.
Example, the dot-com bust, the Great Financial Crisis, Covid, etc.
The name they settled on for the spring bear market and the associated volatility is ‘The Tariff Tantrum’.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/us/politics/canada-tariffs-mark-carney-trump.html
Canada’s Leader Says There’s Little Hope of Avoiding U.S. Tariffs
After long insisting that Canada could avoid Trump tariffs through talks, Mark Carney now says that is unlikely for any nation.Maybe the sh!t will hit the fan for real this time.
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We’ll see. Their ‘base case’ forecast is always pretty optimistic. They are in the business of getting you to invest your money after all, not put it in your mattress.
@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
We’ll see. Their ‘base case’ forecast is always pretty optimistic. They are in the business of getting you to invest your money after all, not put it in your mattress.
I’m having to attend a little strategy lunch with my finance guy tomorrow. I’m wondering what he’ll propose and how I’l react. My son had his meeting last week, and now a small portion of his portfolio has been infused with Crypto. AI and Bitcoin seem to be topics of Zoom meetings and webinars of late, but I don’t understand this stuff, .. at my stage of life, I hesitate. Yet I’ve too much sitting as cash, and my freeholder stuff isn’t flowing so well now. I’m quite tired of your president’s Tariff Tantum.
