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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics

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  • jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote last edited by
    #1000

    Worst half year performance of the dollar in over half a century.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/07/the-declining-dollar-faces-more-headwinds-after-posting-worst-first-half-return-in-52-years.html

    They’ll end up, after a lot of drama, with the same formula they use every time they have a trifecta: take away health care and food assistance from low income families and use the money to fund tax cuts for their donors.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • 89th8 Offline
      89th8 Offline
      89th
      wrote last edited by
      #1001

      If Biden had that performance, Trump would be posting about how the dollar has "had the worst performance in 50 years, some say all time!"

      1 Reply Last reply
      • 89th8 Offline
        89th8 Offline
        89th
        wrote last edited by
        #1002

        At least we have our own @Copper !

        Trump adds a 50% tax to imported copper: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/08/trump-tariffs-copper-trade.html

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nycJ Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote last edited by
          #1003

          Kalshi, the betting market for which Don Jr is an ‘advisor’, is now predicting close to 50T of debt by the time Trump is finished.

          They’ll end up, after a lot of drama, with the same formula they use every time they have a trifecta: take away health care and food assistance from low income families and use the money to fund tax cuts for their donors.

          LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
          • 89th8 Offline
            89th8 Offline
            89th
            wrote last edited by
            #1004

            Let's fast forward and say this happens, or in 10 years we have a bajillion dollars in debt. Eventually what are the possible outcomes?

            • Massive spending cuts?
            • Massive tax increases?
            • Dollar security faulters and causes worldwide economic depression?

            It seems a mathematical certainty that if we don't change something, all the government will spend its money on is paying debt interest. Which would be quite appropriate given how many families do that today with their credit cards.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote last edited by
              #1005

              Barring some AI-based growth miracle I suppose the eventual outcome will be to heavily devalue the debt (and the dollar) by printing tons of money. Default by another name.

              They’ll end up, after a lot of drama, with the same formula they use every time they have a trifecta: take away health care and food assistance from low income families and use the money to fund tax cuts for their donors.

              1 Reply Last reply
              • AxtremusA Away
                AxtremusA Away
                Axtremus
                wrote last edited by
                #1006

                Currency devaluation/inflation … we print (a lot more) money to pay off the debt. May or may not lead to “Dollar security falters” and/or “worldwide economic depression.”

                Gotta compare with the alternatives. Cutting spending too much or increasing taxes too much may also lead to some versions and degrees of “Dollar security falters” and/or “worldwide economic depression.” There may be some versions of “printing money” that are less damaging than some versions of “cutting spending” or “increasing taxes.”

                1 Reply Last reply
                • 89th8 Offline
                  89th8 Offline
                  89th
                  wrote last edited by
                  #1007

                  I have but a simple brain, but an alternative would be to pass a 20-year spending plan that decreases spending on non-essentials, increases taxes for all, with a clear goal of what the "finish line" looks like, and once reached, an immutable law that spending must not result in XYZ debt unless 2/3 of the house and senate approve a wartime approval or some shit like that. In other words, a painful get healthy plan with strict fiscal guardrails in place.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                    Kalshi, the betting market for which Don Jr is an ‘advisor’, is now predicting close to 50T of debt by the time Trump is finished.

                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins DadL Offline
                    LuFins Dad
                    wrote last edited by
                    #1008

                    @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                    Kalshi, the betting market for which Don Jr is an ‘advisor’, is now predicting close to 50T of debt by the time Trump is finished.

                    I mean, on its own, that looks pretty fucking horrible, but by itself it doesn’t tell anywhere near the whole story. What would the alternatives look like? What happens if they allowed the TCJA cuts to expire? What does it look like if we cut spending even a moderate amount? The debt service and the entitlement programs would still push us to that point anyway, whether it’s 1-2 years earlier or later.

                    The Brad

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins DadL Offline
                      LuFins Dad
                      wrote last edited by
                      #1009

                      So why aren’t we talking about the Jobs Report? https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/american-born-employment-reaches-record-high-as-foreign-born-jobs-continue-to-decline

                      A record number of jobs for American born workers and a significant drop in foreign born jobs.

                      Wages are up 3.7% over last year contrasted with 2.4% inflation, so that’s real wage growth.

                      https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

                      The Brad

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nycJ Online
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                        #1010

                        Real wages have been growing since 2022. Though they’re down in q1 from 4q2024.

                        They’ll end up, after a lot of drama, with the same formula they use every time they have a trifecta: take away health care and food assistance from low income families and use the money to fund tax cuts for their donors.

                        LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                          Real wages have been growing since 2022. Though they’re down in q1 from 4q2024.

                          LuFins DadL Offline
                          LuFins DadL Offline
                          LuFins Dad
                          wrote last edited by
                          #1011

                          @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                          Real wages have been growing since 2022. Though they’re down in q1 from 4q2024.

                          And it was fantastic for the illegals…

                          The Brad

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