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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
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  3. Trumpenomics

Trumpenomics

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  • jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nycJ Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote last edited by
    #1005

    Barring some AI-based growth miracle I suppose the eventual outcome will be to heavily devalue the debt (and the dollar) by printing tons of money. Default by another name.

    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

    1 Reply Last reply
    • AxtremusA Offline
      AxtremusA Offline
      Axtremus
      wrote last edited by
      #1006

      Currency devaluation/inflation … we print (a lot more) money to pay off the debt. May or may not lead to “Dollar security falters” and/or “worldwide economic depression.”

      Gotta compare with the alternatives. Cutting spending too much or increasing taxes too much may also lead to some versions and degrees of “Dollar security falters” and/or “worldwide economic depression.” There may be some versions of “printing money” that are less damaging than some versions of “cutting spending” or “increasing taxes.”

      1 Reply Last reply
      • 89th8 Offline
        89th8 Offline
        89th
        wrote last edited by
        #1007

        I have but a simple brain, but an alternative would be to pass a 20-year spending plan that decreases spending on non-essentials, increases taxes for all, with a clear goal of what the "finish line" looks like, and once reached, an immutable law that spending must not result in XYZ debt unless 2/3 of the house and senate approve a wartime approval or some shit like that. In other words, a painful get healthy plan with strict fiscal guardrails in place.

        1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

          Kalshi, the betting market for which Don Jr is an ‘advisor’, is now predicting close to 50T of debt by the time Trump is finished.

          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins DadL Offline
          LuFins Dad
          wrote last edited by
          #1008

          @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

          Kalshi, the betting market for which Don Jr is an ‘advisor’, is now predicting close to 50T of debt by the time Trump is finished.

          I mean, on its own, that looks pretty fucking horrible, but by itself it doesn’t tell anywhere near the whole story. What would the alternatives look like? What happens if they allowed the TCJA cuts to expire? What does it look like if we cut spending even a moderate amount? The debt service and the entitlement programs would still push us to that point anyway, whether it’s 1-2 years earlier or later.

          The Brad

          1 Reply Last reply
          • LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins DadL Offline
            LuFins Dad
            wrote last edited by
            #1009

            So why aren’t we talking about the Jobs Report? https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/american-born-employment-reaches-record-high-as-foreign-born-jobs-continue-to-decline

            A record number of jobs for American born workers and a significant drop in foreign born jobs.

            Wages are up 3.7% over last year contrasted with 2.4% inflation, so that’s real wage growth.

            https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

            The Brad

            1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nycJ Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote last edited by jon-nyc
              #1010

              Real wages have been growing since 2022. Though they’re down in q1 from 4q2024.

              Thank you for your attention to this matter.

              LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                Real wages have been growing since 2022. Though they’re down in q1 from 4q2024.

                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins DadL Offline
                LuFins Dad
                wrote last edited by
                #1011

                @jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:

                Real wages have been growing since 2022. Though they’re down in q1 from 4q2024.

                And it was fantastic for the illegals…

                The Brad

                1 Reply Last reply
                • jon-nycJ Online
                  jon-nycJ Online
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                  #1012

                  Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper. I think we have maybe 5% of the world’s supply, Chile has like 30%.

                  Besides needlessly making construction and power generation more expensive, we’ve seen in the past when copper prices rise, so does crime as people steal/destroy things with high copper content to sell them.

                  Nice going, Trump.

                  Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                  1 Reply Last reply
                  • jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nycJ Online
                    jon-nyc
                    wrote last edited by
                    #1013

                    It seems so economically pointless it makes me wonder if this is a patronage play that belongs in the corruption thread.

                    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • X Offline
                      X Offline
                      xenon
                      wrote last edited by
                      #1014

                      Every business plan in corporate America this year just has a line item for "chaos monkey" right now. This is ridiculous.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • 89th8 Offline
                        89th8 Offline
                        89th
                        wrote last edited by
                        #1015

                        With all the taxes on lumber and copper... get ready for even higher new home build prices!

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ Online
                          jon-nycJ Online
                          jon-nyc
                          wrote last edited by
                          #1016

                          Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                          1 Reply Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote last edited by
                            #1017

                            Trumpflation has landed…

                            https://www.reuters.com/business/us-inflation-expected-rise-june-with-tariff-driven-price-hikes-2025-07-15/

                            The Brad

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • X Offline
                              X Offline
                              xenon
                              wrote last edited by
                              #1018

                              Lots of companies have been able to hold out with supply on hand (or supply they stocked up on) - with the hopes that we’d have more clarity before having to raise price.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins Dad
                                wrote last edited by
                                #1019

                                Yamaha price increase announced for August 1… But that’s been a fairly typical timeframe. I don’t mind saying the increase is above inflation…

                                The Brad

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • jon-nycJ Online
                                  jon-nycJ Online
                                  jon-nyc
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #1020

                                  I was on an investment strategy call with Merrill and they still think the tariffs are mostly a tactical threat and that they still expect decent corporate earnings for Q2, many coming out this week.

                                  Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nycJ Online
                                    jon-nyc
                                    wrote last edited by jon-nyc
                                    #1021

                                    One funny thing though, they always come up with pithy names for various bear market episodes when they refer to them or compare them across time.

                                    Example, the dot-com bust, the Great Financial Crisis, Covid, etc.

                                    The name they settled on for the spring bear market and the associated volatility is ‘The Tariff Tantrum’.

                                    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • AxtremusA Offline
                                      AxtremusA Offline
                                      Axtremus
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #1022

                                      https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/us/politics/canada-tariffs-mark-carney-trump.html

                                      Canada’s Leader Says There’s Little Hope of Avoiding U.S. Tariffs
                                      After long insisting that Canada could avoid Trump tariffs through talks, Mark Carney now says that is unlikely for any nation.

                                      Maybe the sh!t will hit the fan for real this time. 🤷

                                      RenaudaR 1 Reply Last reply
                                      • 89th8 Offline
                                        89th8 Offline
                                        89th
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #1023

                                        So basically time the Trump Tariff Tantrum and make some money but get out of the market before the great dollar collapse of 2035?

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • jon-nycJ Online
                                          jon-nycJ Online
                                          jon-nyc
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #1024

                                          We’ll see. Their ‘base case’ forecast is always pretty optimistic. They are in the business of getting you to invest your money after all, not put it in your mattress.

                                          Thank you for your attention to this matter.

                                          B 1 Reply Last reply
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