$425,000 per family
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Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
Education is extremely important.
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We can't really know that, though all indications, including serious estimates from the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan before the election, had it substantially less.
Oh, and but for Trump it wouldn't be estimated to be 425k per family in ten years. So yeah, that particular number is his. Which is not to say 'but for him it would be zero' (obviously).
But he did just set the record for the largest debt increase of any economic plan in all of human history. And he owns that shit. And so do those of you who voted for him.
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We can't really know that, though all indications, including serious estimates from the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan before the election, had it substantially less.
Oh, and but for Trump it wouldn't be estimated to be 425k per family in ten years. So yeah, that particular number is his. Which is not to say 'but for him it would be zero' (obviously).
But he did just set the record for the largest debt increase of any economic plan in all of human history. And he owns that shit. And so do those of you who voted for him.
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how much more is the deficit due to Trump's Big Beautiful Bill as compared to what we would have had with a Harris administration?
Hereās the comparison based on the best available estimates:
Estimated 10āYear Deficit Impact (2025ā2035)Plan Added Deficit (FY26ā35) Trump āOne Big Beautiful Billā ~$3.3āÆtrillion (CBO), possibly up to $4āÆtrillion per Tax Foundation/Newsweek (theguardian.com, crfb.org, taxfoundation.org) Harris campaign proposals ~$7.65āÆtrillion (CRFB central estimate), range $5.5ā$9.9āÆtrillion (crfb.org)
How Much More?- Under Trumpās bill, the budget would run an additional $3.3ā4āÆtrillion in deficits over ten years.
- Under Harrisās plans, it would be $7.65āÆtrillionāmeaning about $3.6 to $4.3āÆtrillion more than Trumpās deficit hit.
Key Takeaway- Trump vs. āCurrent-lawā baseline: +$3.3āÆtrillion (CBO), possibly +$4āÆtrillion with other models.
- Harris vs. baseline: +$7.65āÆtrillion.
- Trumpās impact is therefore $3.3ā4.3āÆtrillion less than Harrisās (i.e. Harris adds ~2Ć Trump).
These are projections with inherent uncertainty and vary depending on how each model assesses economic effects and policy offsets. But the core comparison is clear: Harrisās plan would add significantly more to the deficit than Trumpās āBig Beautiful Bill.ā
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The dems were never going to extend the entirety of the TCJA, not to mention add all the gimmicky tax giveaways that Trump offered on a whim at various rallies.
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
The dems were never going to extend the entirety of the TCJA, not to mention add all the gimmicky tax giveaways that Trump offered on a whim at various rallies.
The vast majority of the CBO projections were the extension of the tax cuts. Extending them might lead to financial problems, but cancelling them definitely will. And Iāve yet to see a tax cut the CBO hasnāt massively missed the mark in projecting revenue. I hate the additional cuts with the exception of the SS benefits, but those cuts are still small potatoes.
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Here are 2024-era estimates from trusted nonāpartisan sources comparing how much Trumpās and Harrisās economic plans would increase the national debt and deficitsāclearly showing Trumpās would add significantly more:
āø»
š§¾ Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) ā āUS Budget Watch 2024ā
ā¢ Harris: Central estimate adds $3.95āÆtrillion to the debt by FYāÆ2035 (range of +$0.3T to +$8.3T) ļæ¼
ā¢ Trump: Central estimate adds $7.75āÆtrillion by FYāÆ2035 (range of +$1.65T to +$15.55T) ļæ¼āø»
š§® Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) ā āPrimary Deficitā over 10 years (2024ā2034)
ā¢ Harris: Plans increase primary deficit by around $1.2āÆtrillion (or $2.0āÆtrillion including economic feedback effects) ļæ¼
ā¢ Trump: Would raise it by about $5.8āÆtrillion (or $4.1āÆtrillion accounting for macro impacts) ļæ¼āø»
CRFB via Axios
ā¢ Harris: Adds $3.5āÆtrillion in cumulative deficits (2026ā2035)
ā¢ Trump: Adds around $7.5āÆtrillion ļæ¼Bottom Line
ā¢ Trumpās plan consistently increases deficits by roughly $7ā8āÆtrillion over a decade-plus time horizon.
ā¢ Harrisās plan increases deficits by about $3ā4āÆtrillion in the same timeframeāsignificantly less.āø»
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Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
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@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
This is a super dumb thread.
Education is extremely important.
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@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.
Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.
Education is extremely important.
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@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
This is a super dumb thread.
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
This is a super dumb thread.
Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.
I was only joking
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@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.
Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.
Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.
The other source was ChatGPT.
"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
-Cormac McCarthy -
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
This is a super dumb thread.
Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
This is a super dumb thread.
Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.
I don't know, I'm looking better these days. Don't let the weight fool you. Just because you couldn't carry 280 doesn't mean nobody can.
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Every time I see 'Big Beautiful Bill' I immediately think it's referring to some grotesquely overweight redneck named William attempting to breakdance.
And in a way, I'm right.
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@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.
Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.
The other source was ChatGPT.
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.
Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.
The other source was ChatGPT.
Looks like we have a stalemate then.
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Since when @Horace started trusting ChatGPT as an impartial referee for national fiscal matters?
