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The New Coffee Room

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  3. $425,000 per family

$425,000 per family

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  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

    The dems were never going to extend the entirety of the TCJA, not to mention add all the gimmicky tax giveaways that Trump offered on a whim at various rallies.

    LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins DadL Offline
    LuFins Dad
    wrote last edited by
    #8

    @jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

    The dems were never going to extend the entirety of the TCJA, not to mention add all the gimmicky tax giveaways that Trump offered on a whim at various rallies.

    The vast majority of the CBO projections were the extension of the tax cuts. Extending them might lead to financial problems, but cancelling them definitely will. And I’ve yet to see a tax cut the CBO hasn’t massively missed the mark in projecting revenue. I hate the additional cuts with the exception of the SS benefits, but those cuts are still small potatoes.

    The Brad

    1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nycJ Online
      jon-nyc
      wrote last edited by
      #9

      Here are 2024-era estimates from trusted non‑partisan sources comparing how much Trump’s and Harris’s economic plans would increase the national debt and deficits—clearly showing Trump’s would add significantly more:

      ⸻

      🧾 Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) – “US Budget Watch 2024”
      • Harris: Central estimate adds $3.95 trillion to the debt by FY 2035 (range of +$0.3T to +$8.3T) 
      • Trump: Central estimate adds $7.75 trillion by FY 2035 (range of +$1.65T to +$15.55T) 

      ⸻

      🧮 Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) – “Primary Deficit” over 10 years (2024–2034)
      • Harris: Plans increase primary deficit by around $1.2 trillion (or $2.0 trillion including economic feedback effects) 
      • Trump: Would raise it by about $5.8 trillion (or $4.1 trillion accounting for macro impacts) 

      ⸻

      📈 CRFB via Axios
      • Harris: Adds $3.5 trillion in cumulative deficits (2026–2035)
      • Trump: Adds around $7.5 trillion 

      Bottom Line
      • Trump’s plan consistently increases deficits by roughly $7–8 trillion over a decade-plus time horizon.
      • Harris’s plan increases deficits by about $3–4 trillion in the same timeframe—significantly less.

      ⸻

      "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
      -Cormac McCarthy

      1 Reply Last reply
      • HoraceH Horace

        Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

        Doctor PhibesD Offline
        Doctor PhibesD Offline
        Doctor Phibes
        wrote last edited by Doctor Phibes
        #10

        @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

        Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

        It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

        And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

        I was only joking

        HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
        • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

          @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

          Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

          It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

          And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

          HoraceH Offline
          HoraceH Offline
          Horace
          wrote last edited by
          #11

          @Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:

          @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

          Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

          It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

          And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

          This is a super dumb thread.

          Education is extremely important.

          Doctor PhibesD 1 Reply Last reply
          • jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nycJ Online
            jon-nyc
            wrote last edited by jon-nyc
            #12

            Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

            "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
            -Cormac McCarthy

            HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
            • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

              Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

              HoraceH Offline
              HoraceH Offline
              Horace
              wrote last edited by
              #13

              @jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

              Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

              Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.

              Education is extremely important.

              jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
              • HoraceH Horace

                @Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:

                @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

                Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

                It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

                And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

                This is a super dumb thread.

                Doctor PhibesD Offline
                Doctor PhibesD Offline
                Doctor Phibes
                wrote last edited by
                #14

                @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

                @Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:

                @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

                Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

                It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

                And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

                This is a super dumb thread.

                Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.

                I was only joking

                HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                • HoraceH Horace

                  @jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

                  Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

                  Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.

                  jon-nycJ Online
                  jon-nycJ Online
                  jon-nyc
                  wrote last edited by
                  #15

                  @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

                  @jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

                  Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

                  Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.

                  The other source was ChatGPT.

                  "You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
                  -Cormac McCarthy

                  HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                  • Doctor PhibesD Doctor Phibes

                    @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

                    @Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:

                    @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

                    Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

                    It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

                    And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

                    This is a super dumb thread.

                    Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.

                    HoraceH Offline
                    HoraceH Offline
                    Horace
                    wrote last edited by
                    #16

                    @Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:

                    @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

                    @Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:

                    @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

                    Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

                    It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

                    And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

                    This is a super dumb thread.

                    Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.

                    I don't know, I'm looking better these days. Don't let the weight fool you. Just because you couldn't carry 280 doesn't mean nobody can.

                    Education is extremely important.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • Doctor PhibesD Offline
                      Doctor PhibesD Offline
                      Doctor Phibes
                      wrote last edited by
                      #17

                      Every time I see 'Big Beautiful Bill' I immediately think it's referring to some grotesquely overweight redneck named William attempting to breakdance.

                      And in a way, I'm right.

                      I was only joking

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                        @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

                        @jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

                        Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

                        Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.

                        The other source was ChatGPT.

                        HoraceH Offline
                        HoraceH Offline
                        Horace
                        wrote last edited by
                        #18

                        @jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

                        @Horace said in $425,000 per family:

                        @jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

                        Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

                        Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.

                        The other source was ChatGPT.

                        Looks like we have a stalemate then.

                        Education is extremely important.

                        1 Reply Last reply
                        • AxtremusA Away
                          AxtremusA Away
                          Axtremus
                          wrote last edited by
                          #19

                          Since when @Horace started trusting ChatGPT as an impartial referee for national fiscal matters?

                          HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                          • AxtremusA Axtremus

                            Since when @Horace started trusting ChatGPT as an impartial referee for national fiscal matters?

                            HoraceH Offline
                            HoraceH Offline
                            Horace
                            wrote last edited by
                            #20

                            @Axtremus said in $425,000 per family:

                            Since when @Horace started trusting ChatGPT as an impartial referee for national fiscal matters?

                            I trust it to be relatively impartial, but not to necessarily be right.

                            Education is extremely important.

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • HoraceH Offline
                              HoraceH Offline
                              Horace
                              wrote last edited by
                              #21

                              is it reasonable or supportable to think that Harris's budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump's?


                              It is not generally supportable to claim that Harris’s budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, at least based on current nonpartisan projections.

                              Here’s why:


                              📊 Independent Analyses

                              • The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which scores both Republican and Democratic proposals, estimates:

                                • Trump's plan (OBBBA): ~$3.3 trillion added to the deficit over 10 years.
                                • Harris’s plan: ~$3.95 trillion added to the deficit over the same period (after subtracting offsetting savings).

                              ✅ CRFB is nonpartisan and uses consistent methodology for both candidates’ proposals.


                              🧮 What's Driving the Numbers?

                              • Trump’s Bill:

                                • Big tax cuts.
                                • Modest new spending (compared to Harris).
                                • Few offsetting cuts.
                              • Harris’s Proposals:

                                • More spending (e.g., health care expansion, climate programs).
                                • Larger tax increases on wealthy and corporations.
                                • Net result: higher spending than revenue = larger deficit.

                              🤔 Could It Theoretically Be Lower?

                              Only under highly optimistic assumptions, such as:

                              • Stronger economic growth than projected from Harris’s investments.
                              • Full implementation and enforcement of tax increases with no revenue leakage.
                              • Additional policy changes not in the published platform.

                              However, those assumptions aren’t reflected in the best-available projections from CRFB, CBO, or the Tax Foundation.


                              ✅ Conclusion

                              No, it is not reasonable to believe Harris’s budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump’s bill—unless you reject mainstream budget analyses or assume radical changes in economic performance. Based on neutral estimates, Trump’s plan adds less to the deficit than Harris’s.

                              Education is extremely important.

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