$425,000 per family

[Horace]

It's not as if there was any stopping that train regardless of one's vote.

[jon-nyc]

The dems were never going to extend the entirety of the TCJA, not to mention add all the gimmicky tax giveaways that Trump offered on a whim at various rallies.

[Horace]

Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

[jon-nyc]

We can't really know that, though all indications, including serious estimates from the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan before the election, had it substantially less.

Oh, and but for Trump it wouldn't be estimated to be 425k per family in ten years. So yeah, that particular number is his. Which is not to say 'but for him it would be zero' (obviously).

But he did just set the record for the largest debt increase of any economic plan in all of human history. And he owns that shit. And so do those of you who voted for him.

[Horace]

No number. Sad. You could just ask ChatGPT, you don't have to break out the calculator or the tarot cards.

[Horace]

how much more is the deficit due to Trump's Big Beautiful Bill as compared to what we would have had with a Harris administration?

---

Here’s the comparison based on the best available estimates:

---

Estimated 10‑Year Deficit Impact (2025–2035)

Plan	Added Deficit (FY26–35)
Trump “One Big Beautiful Bill”	~$3.3 trillion (CBO), possibly up to $4 trillion per Tax Foundation/Newsweek (theguardian.com, crfb.org, taxfoundation.org)
Harris campaign proposals	~$7.65 trillion (CRFB central estimate), range $5.5–$9.9 trillion (crfb.org)

---

How Much More?

• Under Trump’s bill, the budget would run an additional $3.3–4 trillion in deficits over ten years.
• Under Harris’s plans, it would be $7.65 trillion—meaning about $3.6 to $4.3 trillion more than Trump’s deficit hit.

---

Key Takeaway

• Trump vs. “Current-law” baseline: +$3.3 trillion (CBO), possibly +$4 trillion with other models.
• Harris vs. baseline: +$7.65 trillion.
• Trump’s impact is therefore $3.3–4.3 trillion less than Harris’s (i.e. Harris adds ~2× Trump).

---

These are projections with inherent uncertainty and vary depending on how each model assesses economic effects and policy offsets. But the core comparison is clear: Harris’s plan would add significantly more to the deficit than Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”

---

• theguardian.com
• kiplinger.com
• nypost.com

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

The dems were never going to extend the entirety of the TCJA, not to mention add all the gimmicky tax giveaways that Trump offered on a whim at various rallies.

The vast majority of the CBO projections were the extension of the tax cuts. Extending them might lead to financial problems, but cancelling them definitely will. And I’ve yet to see a tax cut the CBO hasn’t massively missed the mark in projecting revenue. I hate the additional cuts with the exception of the SS benefits, but those cuts are still small potatoes.

[jon-nyc]

Here are 2024-era estimates from trusted non‑partisan sources comparing how much Trump’s and Harris’s economic plans would increase the national debt and deficits—clearly showing Trump’s would add significantly more:

⸻

🧾 Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) – “US Budget Watch 2024”
• Harris: Central estimate adds $3.95 trillion to the debt by FY 2035 (range of +$0.3T to +$8.3T) 
• Trump: Central estimate adds $7.75 trillion by FY 2035 (range of +$1.65T to +$15.55T) 

⸻

🧮 Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) – “Primary Deficit” over 10 years (2024–2034)
• Harris: Plans increase primary deficit by around $1.2 trillion (or $2.0 trillion including economic feedback effects) 
• Trump: Would raise it by about $5.8 trillion (or $4.1 trillion accounting for macro impacts) 

⸻

CRFB via Axios
• Harris: Adds $3.5 trillion in cumulative deficits (2026–2035)
• Trump: Adds around $7.5 trillion 

Bottom Line
• Trump’s plan consistently increases deficits by roughly $7–8 trillion over a decade-plus time horizon.
• Harris’s plan increases deficits by about $3–4 trillion in the same timeframe—significantly less.

⸻

[Doctor Phibes]

@Horace said in $425,000 per family:

Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

[Horace]

@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:

@Horace said in $425,000 per family:

Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

This is a super dumb thread.

[jon-nyc]

Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.

[Doctor Phibes]

@Horace said in $425,000 per family:

@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:

@Horace said in $425,000 per family:

Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

This is a super dumb thread.

Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in $425,000 per family:

@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.

The other source was ChatGPT.

[Horace]

@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:

@Horace said in $425,000 per family:

@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:

@Horace said in $425,000 per family:

Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.

It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.

And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.

This is a super dumb thread.

Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.

I don't know, I'm looking better these days. Don't let the weight fool you. Just because you couldn't carry 280 doesn't mean nobody can.

[Doctor Phibes]

Every time I see 'Big Beautiful Bill' I immediately think it's referring to some grotesquely overweight redneck named William attempting to breakdance.

And in a way, I'm right.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

@Horace said in $425,000 per family:

@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:

Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.

Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.

The other source was ChatGPT.

Looks like we have a stalemate then.

[Axtremus]

Since when @Horace started trusting ChatGPT as an impartial referee for national fiscal matters?

[Horace]

@Axtremus said in $425,000 per family:

Since when @Horace started trusting ChatGPT as an impartial referee for national fiscal matters?

I trust it to be relatively impartial, but not to necessarily be right.

[Horace]

is it reasonable or supportable to think that Harris's budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump's?

---

It is not generally supportable to claim that Harris’s budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, at least based on current nonpartisan projections.

Here’s why:

---

Independent Analyses

• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which scores both Republican and Democratic proposals, estimates:

  • Trump's plan (OBBBA): ~$3.3 trillion added to the deficit over 10 years.
  • Harris’s plan: ~$3.95 trillion added to the deficit over the same period (after subtracting offsetting savings).

CRFB is nonpartisan and uses consistent methodology for both candidates’ proposals.

---

🧮 What's Driving the Numbers?

• Trump’s Bill:

  • Big tax cuts.
  • Modest new spending (compared to Harris).
  • Few offsetting cuts.

• Harris’s Proposals:

  • More spending (e.g., health care expansion, climate programs).
  • Larger tax increases on wealthy and corporations.
  • Net result: higher spending than revenue = larger deficit.

---

Could It Theoretically Be Lower?

Only under highly optimistic assumptions, such as:

• Stronger economic growth than projected from Harris’s investments.
• Full implementation and enforcement of tax increases with no revenue leakage.
• Additional policy changes not in the published platform.

However, those assumptions aren’t reflected in the best-available projections from CRFB, CBO, or the Tax Foundation.

---

Conclusion

No, it is not reasonable to believe Harris’s budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump’s bill—unless you reject mainstream budget analyses or assume radical changes in economic performance. Based on neutral estimates, Trump’s plan adds less to the deficit than Harris’s.