$425,000 per family
-
Here are 2024-era estimates from trusted non‑partisan sources comparing how much Trump’s and Harris’s economic plans would increase the national debt and deficits—clearly showing Trump’s would add significantly more:
⸻
🧾 Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) – “US Budget Watch 2024”
• Harris: Central estimate adds $3.95 trillion to the debt by FY 2035 (range of +$0.3T to +$8.3T) 
• Trump: Central estimate adds $7.75 trillion by FY 2035 (range of +$1.65T to +$15.55T) ⸻
🧮 Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) – “Primary Deficit” over 10 years (2024–2034)
• Harris: Plans increase primary deficit by around $1.2 trillion (or $2.0 trillion including economic feedback effects) 
• Trump: Would raise it by about $5.8 trillion (or $4.1 trillion accounting for macro impacts) ⸻
CRFB via Axios
• Harris: Adds $3.5 trillion in cumulative deficits (2026–2035)
• Trump: Adds around $7.5 trillion Bottom Line
• Trump’s plan consistently increases deficits by roughly $7–8 trillion over a decade-plus time horizon.
• Harris’s plan increases deficits by about $3–4 trillion in the same timeframe—significantly less.⸻
-
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
-
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
This is a super dumb thread.
Education is extremely important.
-
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.
Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.
Education is extremely important.
-
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
This is a super dumb thread.
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
This is a super dumb thread.
Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.
I was only joking
-
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.
Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.
Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.
The other source was ChatGPT.
"You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from."
-Cormac McCarthy -
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
This is a super dumb thread.
Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@Doctor-Phibes said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
Ok feel free to put a reasonable number to the extra deficit we can attribute to Trump. It ain't 425k per family. Think as wishfully about the responsible budget we'd have gotten out of a Harris administration as you please. Just come up with a number.
It's a lot easier to pay off a hypothetical debt than the real one we're stuck with.
And trying to blame Harris for what has happened is kind of fun, but she's not the one who did this.
This is a super dumb thread.
Fat people dancing is always funny to watch.
I don't know, I'm looking better these days. Don't let the weight fool you. Just because you couldn't carry 280 doesn't mean nobody can.
-
Every time I see 'Big Beautiful Bill' I immediately think it's referring to some grotesquely overweight redneck named William attempting to breakdance.
And in a way, I'm right.
-
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.
Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.
The other source was ChatGPT.
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
@Horace said in $425,000 per family:
@jon-nyc said in $425,000 per family:
Yeah, obvious maga cope is obvious. Film at 11.
Like a cope of not presenting a number for comparison, when I asked you very reasonably. I was totally willing to accept that the Big Beautiful Bill would have led to a bigger deficit, but ChatGPT differed. I'm happy for you that you found another AI source to indicate otherwise.
The other source was ChatGPT.
Looks like we have a stalemate then.
-
Since when @Horace started trusting ChatGPT as an impartial referee for national fiscal matters?
-
is it reasonable or supportable to think that Harris's budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump's?
It is not generally supportable to claim that Harris’s budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”, at least based on current nonpartisan projections.
Here’s why:
Independent Analyses-
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which scores both Republican and Democratic proposals, estimates:
- Trump's plan (OBBBA): ~$3.3 trillion added to the deficit over 10 years.
- Harris’s plan: ~$3.95 trillion added to the deficit over the same period (after subtracting offsetting savings).
CRFB is nonpartisan and uses consistent methodology for both candidates’ proposals.
🧮 What's Driving the Numbers?
-
Trump’s Bill:
- Big tax cuts.
- Modest new spending (compared to Harris).
- Few offsetting cuts.
-
Harris’s Proposals:
- More spending (e.g., health care expansion, climate programs).
- Larger tax increases on wealthy and corporations.
- Net result: higher spending than revenue = larger deficit.
Could It Theoretically Be Lower?Only under highly optimistic assumptions, such as:
- Stronger economic growth than projected from Harris’s investments.
- Full implementation and enforcement of tax increases with no revenue leakage.
- Additional policy changes not in the published platform.
However, those assumptions aren’t reflected in the best-available projections from CRFB, CBO, or the Tax Foundation.
ConclusionNo, it is not reasonable to believe Harris’s budget would have led to a lower deficit than Trump’s bill—unless you reject mainstream budget analyses or assume radical changes in economic performance. Based on neutral estimates, Trump’s plan adds less to the deficit than Harris’s.
-
