The Iran Nuclear Program thread

[jon-nyc]

@89th said in The Iran Nuclear Program thread:

That being said, if we dropped 14 MOPs on the target, I'd have to imagine most of the internal infrastructure is a pile of collapsed rock now.

It comes down to how deep/reinforced they were. Really the latter. The Iranians were aware of the (published) specs of the MOP and were trying to upgrade the concrete to that it couldn't go as deep. That would be one way the underground facility could have survived. Again, though, who knows?

[Mik]

Fordow is one thing, but it's also true they now know that Israel is quite capable, and willing given the incentive, to crush their defenses and economy at will.

[Mik]

Good piece from Haaretz.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/haaretz-explains-after-the-strikes-what-s-really-left-of-iran-s-nuclear-program/ar-AA1HpaaW

[jon-nyc]

That was very helpful

[Mik]

I thought so too.

[taiwan_girl]

@Mik Yes, quite interesting and informative. Thanks for sharing.

[jon-nyc]

A contrarian take:

[jon-nyc]

But Frum has a good point:

[Horace]

If America and Israel just pretended to surrender to a retarded country, would it actually feel bad? Does letting a five year old win at checkers feel bad?

[Axtremus]

[taiwan_girl]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8zv8j563po

Iranian authorities have carried out a wave of arrests and multiple executions of people suspected of links to Israeli intelligence agencies, in the wake of the recent war between the two countries.

It comes after what officials describe as an unprecedented infiltration of Iranian security services by Israeli agents.

Authorities suspect information fed to Israel played a part in a series of high-profile assassinations during the conflict. This included the targeted killings of senior commanders from the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and nuclear scientists, which Iran attributes to operatives of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency working inside the country.

Shaken by the scale and precision of these killings, authorities have been targeting anyone suspected of working with foreign intelligence, saying it is for the sake of national security.

But many fear this is also a way to silence dissent and tighten control over the population.

[Mik]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-crackdown-deepens-speedy-executions-arrests/story?id=123253547

[taiwan_girl]

Im sure that it will take some time to know how much damage was done. I am not sure I would believe anything coming from the Iran officials right now.

The United States obtained intercepted communication between senior Iranian officials discussing this month’s U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and remarking that the attack was less devastating than they had expected, said four people familiar with the classified intelligence circulating within the U.S. government.

The communication, intended to be private, included Iranian government officials speculating as to why the strikes directed by President Donald Trump were not as destructive and extensive as they had anticipated, these people said. Like some others, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/06/29/trump-iran-nuclear-damage-intercepted-call/

[Mik]

Nah. Nothing unconfirmed out of Tehran is credible on its face. But I would not be a bit surprised if it were true.

[jon-nyc]

Could it be?

[jon-nyc]

[Mik]

That would be one hell of an Independence Day present.

[Axtremus]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/world/middleeast/ayatollah-khamenei-iran-israel.html

"Khamenei Appears in Public for First Time Since Israel War Began"

[jon-nyc]

Open letter from Gallant to the Ayatollah

https://generalyoavgallant.substack.com/p/a-letter-from-general-gallant-to?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true

[Tom-K]

Damn, I hope General Gallant never writes me a letter.